Dispatch for September 9

Ukrainian counteroffensive

According to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv direction. Despite the fact that many of them are not particularly of strategic importance, these are still impressive results.

Yesterday, Ukrainian troops launched rocket and artillery strikes on Kupiansk (as part of artillery preparation), and later liberated the entire western part of the city and took control of the road near Oskil. There were photos with the Ukrainian flag near the city administration.

Whilst retreating, the Russian troops blew up the bridge over the Oskil river, which divides Kupiansk into a western and eastern parts. Thus, the Russian forces have so far managed to hold the eastern part of the city.

There was a large number of reports that Ukrainian troops took a number of settlements on the approaches to Izyum (Oskil, Kapytolivka). Rumors are being spread that they have entered Izyum itself, however there is no photo and video evidence yet. The city is already cut off from supply lines, and we have no doubt that the liberation of Izyum is only a matter of time.

The following pro-Russian sources have openly written about the unfavorable situation for Russian forces along this axis.

    - Special Forces Archangel (Архангел спецназа) TG channel;

    - Voenkor Sreda TG channel (he is also referred to as a staff military correspondent of the Wagner Group);

    -  Voenkor Romanov (Романов Лайт) TG channel;

    - Alexander Kots (Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper);

    - Yevgeniy Poddubniy (All Russia Radio & Television Broadcasting Company);

    - First Deputy Minister of Information of the self-proclaimed DPR Daniil Beznosov.

Photographs have been published which provide evidence of the liberation of Lyman by Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian soldiers show photographs of a captured arsenal located near Balakliia which was liberated a few days ago.

A video taken along the Kharkiv axis not far from the village of Shevchenkove has been published. The footage shows destroyed vehicles of the retreating Russian forces that came under Ukrainian fire.  

The Ministry of Defense of Russia as well as several national media outlets have published footage of the redeployment of forces of the Group of Troops “Center” to the Kharkiv sector. Uragan MRL and Taifun vehicles can be seen.

Military analyst Tom Bullock of the Janes agency (a global open-source intelligence company) noted the presence of vehicles marked with symbols of the Central Military District special forces (for example Tigr infantry mobility vehicles) en route to the front.

The relevance of the videos that appeared on different days is questionable. They look like they were taken at the same time, but from different angles.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine achieved some success in the Kherson axis as well.

In the summary of operational information at 18:00 on September 9, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informs that civilian infrastructure of the village of Barvinok north of Kherson was damaged by Russian shelling. Therefore, Barvinok is already under the control of Ukraine. This confirms yesterday's reports on pro-Russian channels that the forces of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division were leaving that area.

Based on pieces of indirect evidence, we believe that the 11th Army Corps, which is part of the Baltic Fleet, at the very least, has sustained significant damage on the front line:

• Pro-Russian Telegram channel "Veteran's Notes" writes: "11th corps! Where are you?!", which indicates that they had lost contact with their own.
• Defense Intelligence of Ukraine published a wiretap in which a Russian soldier, talking about the situation in the Kharkiv direction, says: "That’s it, the Corps is gone."
• On the photos of the documents of the soldiers under 20 years old, mentioned in yesterday’s dispatch, you can see the shoulder patch of the 152nd missile brigade, which is part of the 11th Army Corps. 

• A video recording of a captive Russian soldier who signed his contract in Kaliningrad was published.
• Photos of the documents of captured contract soldiers from the unit 38838, 18th separate motorized rifle brigade, which is also part of the 11th Army Corps.

A video appeared that shows foreign volunteers firing from a machine gun mounted on a Humvee armored vehicle, quickly moving from one position to another.  

In yesterday’s dispatch we mentioned a discussion of the Ukrainian tactics on the Telegram channel “Two majors”. In a post  dated September 8, Igor Strelkov (Girkin), former Russian separatist commander and military blogger, describes the developments on the Kharkiv front in a similar way. Ukrainian forces deploy mobile sabotage and reconnaissance units that penetrate deeply behind the enemy lines. Due to  the reliable communication with the main forces, these units can direct missile strikes and the Russian air force cannot attack them for fear of hitting their own troops. 

According to Ukrainian observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, the Russian command is trying to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive as quickly as possible. All suitable reserves are being thrown in at the deep end and have to engage in combat, without proper formation, plans or coordination. As a result of such tactics, the reserves operate inefficiently and suffer great casualties. 

Russian troops use 9M22S incendiary rockets, trying to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv, mainly in the Saltivka neighbourhood. So far, four people are known to have been killed. According to “Voyennyi Osvedomitel'” (Military Informant) TG channel, a Tornado-S MLRS was used. 

Belgorod telegram channels report that missiles fired from the outskirts of Belgorod towards Ukraine continue to fall within the town boundaries. 

In the north-east of Moscow, the outer part of the Moscow Ring Road (MKAD) is blocked, a column of Rosgvardiya (The National Guard of the Russian Federation) is traveling along it, probably towards the Chkalovsky military airfield.