Dispatch for September 11
Conflict Intelligence TeamThe results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
In the Kharkiv direction, conditions for an operational pause are gradually developing. We believe that both sides will strengthen their positions on their respective banks of the Oskil river. Most likely, Ukrainian forces will not try to cross Oskil, whilst Russia doesn't have sufficient forces to try to reclaim the positions liberated by the Ukrainian army. The reserves of the Russian forces (such as the 3rd Army Corps and the “Center” grouping of forces) seem to be diverted for involvement in other directions.
Analyst Def Mon published a map of territories liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, separately marking those which do not have evidence for an objective confirmation yet. Russian forces supposedly abandoned them, but not all settlements have a visual confirmation of coming under the control of Ukraine.
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The AFU General Staff reports that Russian troops in the Kherson region have abandoned their positions in a number of settlements, but doesn't specify in which ones.
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov mentioned in an interview that the counteroffensive was even more successful than it had been planned. According to him, the Ukrainian troops are exhausted after six days of assault, need a rest and resupply, but haven't lost their fighting spirit.
Considering the performance of the totally smashed 11th Army Corps and a great number of out of use military equipment abandoned in Izyum by the 1st Tank Army (including a large quantity of tanks), we came to a decision to lower our estimate of the effectiveness of the RuAF to “limited capacity for defense” (on a scale of “capable of offense” to “not capable of defense”). Previously we were not sure whether the known problems would turn out to be systematic to such an extent, but now it has become clear that the 11th Army Corps was completely incapable of defending the front line. Also it was revealed that the organizational structure of the 1st Tank Army was totally ruined. This was the result of a significant amount of losses and protracted participation in combat actions. Losing two major formations constitutes substantial damage to the RuAF.
At this point, we doubt any Russian offensive operations can be successful but allow the possibility that they will be carried out.
With their exceptionally successful counteroffensive, the AFU eliminated not only the threat of cutting off Kharkiv, which was unlikely even before, but also the threat of an offensive in the direction of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Thus, we are practically sure that the Russian forces will not be able to capture the Donetsk region.
During the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces captured a lieutenant colonel of the 18th Guards Motor Rifle Division holding the position of ‘the head of command post’ in the military unit 90151. At the same time he holds the position of the Deputy Chief of Staff. The head of the divisional command post can serve as a valuable source of information about his unit for Ukraine’s military. The capture of the command post indicates that this division has ceased to exist as an independent military unit.
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In the area of Pisky, two unsuccessful offensive attempts have been carried out by Ukrainian troops in recent days. 10-15 fighters were killed in action in each of the offensives, at least two tanks were lost.
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We believe that leaving so much equipment behind when retreating from the Kharkiv region isn't evidence of panic among the troops but the peculiarities of the Russian strategic command. The withdrawal of the equipment wasn't organized properly, and the command gave no time for a gradual retreat.
The Kherson bridgehead shows that, in principle, the Russian army can deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive, despite supply and logistical problems. Ukrainian forces are progressively advancing in this direction, but the front has not collapsed, and fighting is still going on.
The bodies of two civilians with traces of torture were found in the liberated village of Hrakove, Kharkiv region.
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On the evening of September 11, Russian forces hit the CHPP-5 (Combined Heat and Power Plant) in Kharkiv, which is an object of critical infrastructure. The city was left without electricity and water for some time.
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Despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have liberated territories around Kharkiv as far as the border, the situation for the city is not much easier as it is bombarded by rocket artillery from the Belgorod region of Russia. We call for removing the restriction on the use of modern Western weapons against military facilities within Russia. While carrying a low risk of collateral casualties among the civilians, the use of precision-guided weapons will seriously reduce the combat potential of the Russian army. This step is necessary to end the war as soon as possible and prevent even more casualties.