Dispatch for July 26

The Antonivskyi Bridge was hit last night: this morning a video appeared which as of now we believe to be authentic (confirmed metadata). In the video you can hear the operator say that the new attack on the Antonivskyi Bridge struck approximately the same places as last time. On the other hand, I can easily imagine that the damage shown is from a previous strike. The bridge has suffered significant damage and in my opinion it would be impossible and dangerous to cross even in a civilian automobile.

Occupation authorities also report that Ukrainian forces damaged the railroad bridge across the Dnipro near Kherson. 

Next to the Darivskyi Bridge (which connects Nova Kakhovka with Kherson) the construction by Russian forces of pontoon crossings is already nearing completion. These kinds of crossings are far more vulnerable to artillery strikes, loitering munitions, and aerial bombs. They are easier to destroy than permanent structures such as a bridge.   

A powerful explosion in Nova Kakhovka. The video first shows a fire followed by an explosion. We believe the explosion was caused by a secondary detonation. It supports the theory that this was an ammunition depot, like in the previous events. The occupation administration confirms that a warehouse exploded, but according to them, it was saltpeter that was stored in the warehouse, not ammunition. 

A major fire in Donetsk tonight.  It is reported that oil tanks were burning. A RIA Novosti correspondent reports that the fire was caused by Ukrainian shelling from M777 howitzers. Judging by the Russian Railways databasee, the railway oil tanks contained fuel that arrived from the Ryazan oil refinery. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine  have created a bridgehead in the direction of Kherson south of the Inhuletz River. It is also reported that the AFU liberated the village of Andriivka. 

Speaker of the Operational Command South Natalia Humenyuk reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken several transport arteries under fire control and maintain control over several transport routes that are important for the occupying authorities. Consequently, the supply situation for the Russian forces in the Kherson area has become more difficult. 

Vuhlehirsk TPP has been completely captured and now is controlled by pro-Russian forces. There is much photo and video evidence. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Semyhir’ya and Novoluhanske.

Berestove (Bakhmut-Siversk defense line) is captured and controlled by pro-Russian forces; The town is almost completely destroyed.

In Siversk, which has long been under assault by both so-called 2nd Army Corps of the “People's Militia of the LPR” and the Wagner group, perished civilians are being buried right in the courtyards of residential buildings (as it used to be done in Mariupol).

The first deputy minister of information of the self-proclaimed republic of the DPR claims that the territory of the Donetsk region “will have been liberated” from Ukrainian forces by the end of August.

We believe that the Donetsk region has less strategic importance for the Ukrainian forces than the Kherson direction, so we will keep seeing them retreating from various small settlements in the region, but we consider the capture of Slavyansk or Kramatorsk by pro-russian forces by the end of August or even September unlikely.

Russian forces have bombarded Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Odesa regions again. The number of victims is being clarified. Odesa region was attacked by air-launched missiles. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has published a video of missile strike consequences and commented: "It was morning, an ordinary village Zatoka. People were sleeping, living. No military bases, no troops. Terrorists from Russia just wanted to fire.".

Olexiy Arestovych said that Russians have transferred artillery and aviation to  Vysokopillia, struck the advancing Ukrainian infantry and evened their situation. Besides, according to him, the  Armed Forces of Ukraine have totally destroyed five combined arms armies out of ten Russians have ( actually they have eleven and four army corps). We suppose that by "totally destroyed" he means "rendered unfit for combat" because of an enormous number of killed, wounded, POWs and “refuseniks”.

Some Russian-language media mistranslated a Politico article as "Ukraine has 3-6 weeks to reconquer the occupied territories." In fact, the article cites Zelensky’s words that in the next 3-6 weeks Ukraine will especially need help, because in winter (or rather in autumn) it will be more difficult to attack due to a muddy season. It is also important to understand that Ukrainian officials will always show the situation as worse than it is, while addressing to the parliaments of European countries, NATO, the European Union, the US Congress. They are trying to motivate allies to provide aid more actively.

Ukrainian forces hit a customs point in Troebortnoe (Bryansk region) with a loitering munition and released a video. Two Moldova сitizens were harmed: Ivan Surdul died, Vasily Kulish was severely wounded; a customs officer and a security guard were also injured. The customs warehouse is located away from the customs point, there was no military equipment next to it. The Federal Customs Service does not belong to the FSB and is not a legitimate military target. We have no doubt that a war crime has been committed, and we call on the Ukrainian side to investigate it and punish the offenders. 

Judging by satellite images, the 2S7 Pion self-propelled guns seem to be removed from a storage base in Omsk. They are good at destroying large objects, e.g. bridges, as well as  at counter-battery firing. 

In Moscow, Roman Telenkevich (“Vodyanoy”) has been sentenced to 13 years in a maximum security penal colony. He was found guilty of leading an organized crime network, murder threat and blackmail. He was reportedly acting under cover of the Yenot (raccoon) Private Military Company. A number of Russian ex-combatants of the war in Donbas of 2014-2016 did not manage to adjust to civilian life. After the conflict was frozen, they created their own pseudo-PMCs, escorted cargo to Donbass and engaged in banditry.

Graham Phillips (a British citizen, present in Donbass since 2014-2015, an independent journalist with a pro-Kremlin, pro-separatist position) has been added to the UK government sanctions list.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia will propose to stop issuing Schengen visas to Russian citizens at the European Union level. We doubt success as the European Union is a large organization and many different interests have to be taken into account.

Russian forces decided to start annexation of the captured territories in Donetsk Region. According to the Security Service of Ukraine, activists of the pro-Russian organization named “Donetsk Republic” will help with the preparation. The organization will be renamed into “Big Russia”. Among other media materials there are, for example, t-shirts with a map picturing Alaska, Kazakhstan, Finland and partially Poland as a part of Russia.

There are some goods from Iran appearing in Donetsk.

According to Strelkov, Russian forces are going to let the Ukrainian army take the initiative, finishing the operational pause with a defensive battle, which most probably will take place at the southern front (Kherson — Zaporizhzhia). Russian command is missing one main thing for any wide-scale offensive operation — sufficient manpower. From the point of view of the Ukrainian army, an offensive (a “battle for initiative”) is the only logical step either from a military or from a political point of view.