Dispatch for July 22

150 days have passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Tomorrow will be 5 months since we started to make dispatches about the war. 

There are messages coming in about probable attack of the sea port in Odesa by the Russian forces: photos of smoke coming from the port area and videos of air defense systems shooting down two objects. The attack target is yet to be known.

We want to remind that two separate agreements were signed yesterday (one of them between Turkey, UN, and Ukraine, the other - between Russia, Turkey, and UN) establishing export of Ukrainian grain. These agreements, which took effect right after signing, had named three seaports for the grain export. The Odesa port was among them. Moreover, the deal stated that, firstly, the parties agree not to attack vessels and port facilities involved in the initiative, secondly, no military ships will be allowed to approach “the maritime humanitarian corridor” that the civil vessels will be using. And finally, no aircraft or drones will be allowed to approach the corridor either.

So, if it is not the seaport that was attacked, then the deal was not broken. Otherwise, it's very important to follow the Russian comments on the event.

Alleged encircling of Russian troops in Vysokopillia: the potential for encirclement became noticeable from the end of June, when Ukrainian forces liberated Potyomkyne village; fighting in Olhyne was also reported. We believe that the rumor about the encircling started with a post by DefMon, a western expert. He wrote on July 21 that there was fighting in the Vysokopillia region with heavy shelling, Ukrainian troops were advancing and Russian troops were close to being encircled. This message was followed by a series of reposts, in which the information was overblown with clickbait headlines and fantastical details about 2,000 people and the request for a “green corridor”. We believe neither in an encirclement (there likely is a way out), nor in such a number of people. Satellite images show that Vysokopillia is a small settlement where it is impossible to deploy 2,000 or even 1,000 soldiers with armored vehicles. If this were true, they would be located so tightly that it would be possible to stage the entire operation with artillery instead of encircling. If we are wrong, then soon we will see hundreds of prisoners and lots of captured materiel.

Pro-Russian telegram channels are trying to mislead the public, reporting on “big victories”, while picturing the people captured in Hirske and Zolote on June 23 for new prisoners from the Seversk region. We hope that the Ukrainian side will not try to fabricate 1,000 people from Vysokopillia in the same manner, by showing similar old footage.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the effect of the supply of Western weaponry has become noticeable. If earlier Ukraine would lose about 100 servicemen a day, now this number has dropped to 30. Ukraine used to fire 1-2 thousand artillery shots a day, and Russia 12 thousand. Now, the Ukrainian side fires about 6,000 rounds a day, and the capacity of the Russian forces is constantly decreasing, as Ukraine keeps destroying Russian ammunition depots.

The Institute for the Study of War alleges that Russia is unable to build up the momentum after the operational pause. We believe (as we wrote yesterday) that the operational pause is not over yet. Only when we see a redeployment of the 3rd army corps, consisting of volunteer battalions, from Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region to the front line, we may conclude that the pause has ended.

Large-scale nighttime attack by Russian forces in Dnipropetrovsk Region. According to Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional Administration Valentyn Riznichenko, Russian forces struck the Nikopol’s’ky, Synelnykovsky, and Kryvoriz’ky districts. They twice shelled Nikopol’ with multiple-launch rocket systems. At the present time, it is known that one person was killed and one wounded. Eleven private homes were damaged.

Ukrainian Operational Command “South” reports that Russian forces struck the city of Apostolove in Dnipropetrovsk Region with “Tochka U” missiles. We assume that the same“Tochka-U” missile systems were used that we saw earlier in Machulishchy (Belarus) and later in Belgorod Region (Russia) as well as in Luhansk Region and near Melitopol’.

Bridges between Lysychans’k and Sievierodonetsk were destroyed by Ukrainian troops as they withdrew. The occupation authorities have established a pontoon bridge crossing there which is being used in place of the automobile bridge.  

Advisor to Mariupol’ mayor Petro Andryushchenko reports that the occupation authorities have closed entry and exit points to Mariupol’ until Monday and are conducting filtration activities.

On the Kherson axis, Ukrainian forces hit a group of Russian vehicles south of Chornobaivka.

A new video allegedly shows an M270 launch. We still cannot be sure that this is not a launch from two HIMARS, but there is a lot of indirect evidence of M270 used.

Another video shows a Ukrainian attack with loitering munitions on Russian forces at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The EU published a new Russia sanctions package. It bans direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of gold, which is the most important article of Russian export after hydrocarbons. The sanctions also targeted state-owned Sberbank, Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin, actors Sergey Bezrukov and Vladimir Mashkov and the president of “Night Wolves” bikers’ club Aleksandr Zaldostanov.

A member of the German Bundestag called to abandon the current substitution weapons supply scheme and send weapons to Ukraine directly.

Poland sent a new batch of BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

Here’s a glaring example of problems, which the Russian forces have in intelligence and rechecking information. The Ministry of Defense of Russia reports about a military stronghold in Dnipro set up by Ukrainian forces in school #23, and artillery and armored vehicles positioned nearby. To check the information, you can find the school #23 in Dnipro on Yandex or Google maps, and you’ll see that it is situated next to the History Museum, which has historical armored vehicles, including “Katyusha” rocket launchers, in its territory.

A Russian VGTRK channel military correspondent of Alexander Sladkov reportedly ran over a man by his car in Varvarovka, Luhansk region, the witness has disappeared.

Secondary detonation of ammunition of the First World War has begun on fields near the Italian-Slovenian border, because of forest fires. It is very important to understand that mines, which are set nowadays on Ukrainian territory, will take decades to be neutralized.

To summarize, this week we saw several small movements on the frontline:

• The Russian forces are conducting artillery strikes on the Bakhmut-Soledar axis;
• The Ukrainian forces are preparing a counteroffensive on the Kherson axis: 
• The Antonivsky bridge was shelled, there are many holes and heavy military vehicles can’t pass; 
• A group of Russian vehicles was hit in the Chornobayivka area; 
• Some Russian forces may have been surrounded around Vysokopillia;
• We see massing Russian troops and heavier shelling on the Siversk axis, but no large-scale offensive as of yet.