Dispatch for July 21

During a security conference in the United States, Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service of Great Britain (MI-6) Richard Moore said that Russia has exhausted itself and has insufficient reserves to carry out further large-scale offensives and that it has been forced to abandon its initial plans to capture Ukraine and Kyiv as well as to create a rupture in the western alliance. We agree that in comparison with April and May Russia’s offensive appears to be on a lesser scale. However, we do not know how many combat-ready reserves each side has. We see the formation of the 3rd Army Corps in a training area in Mulino in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and the recruitment of volunteer battalions in all regions of Russia. Along with this there are Ukrainian estimates indicating that Russia has expended approximately 60% of its rockets, but this is unconfirmed information. Ukraine also continues to receive weapons.

We tend to believe that the operational pause has not ended. There have been several minor  advances along certain axes, for example along the Siversk axis, but we do not see that Russia has in any way progressed to the next stage of the attack. We also doubt that Russia will ever be able to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast up to and including its administrative boundaries. On the other hand, we are not ready to assert that Ukraine at the present time is capable of conducting a large-scale counteroffensive.  

We still haven't seen any videos that confirm the destruction of HIMARS. Mark Milley, Сhairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also says that the Russians have not destroyed any HIMARS so far, while the Ukrainians are utilizing them very effectively. 

The number of casualties on July 14th of the rocket attack on Vinnytsia has increased to 26 people. Olha Lysenko passed away in hospital.

Pro-Kremlin telegram channels are actively discussing yesterday's attack on Mykolaiv. They claim that Russian forces struck a munition depot allegedly using 9M542 precision-guided missiles for the Tornado-S MLRS. We see objects typical for commercial warehouses (cans of drinks) in the video by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine for the Mykolaiv region and in the photos of this “munition depot”. Possibly one of the local pro-Russian civilians gave a tip, and the strike was made without double checking the intelligence. Vitaliy Kim, the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, says it was a humanitarian aid warehouse. Considering all photos and other available materials we believe this is true. 

Vitaly Kim has repeatedly stated  that Russia keeps launching the missiles from  its S-300 air defense systems at the city. Last night Russian forces fired 7 missiles at Mykolaiv; an infrastructure facility, a gas pipeline and storage facilities were hit; one person was injured. 

Photos were published showing the aftermath of the Russian strike on Kramatorsk. It is reported that the rubble is being cleared, while the body of one of the victims was extracted, two more people may still be under the rubble .

Russian forces struck the central market in Bakhmut town. The information about victims is yet to be specified.

Kharkiv. Yesterday, Russian forces shelled the city with rocket artillery, most likely by Uragan MLRS. Oleh Sinehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, reports three dead and twenty three injured, including a child. 

The night before, explosions were heard near Melitopol. There is photo and video evidence. According to Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, a fire broke out to the east of the City, near Voznesenka village right after the explosions.

Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov does not reveal the details of new military aid from Ukraine’s partners agreed at Rammstein-4 conference. However, he does say that the new pledges concern “land, sea and air”. We believe this means anti-ship missiles, air defense systems and possibly additional artillery systems for a ground offensive.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says that partners won’t yet give long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. There are still enough targets for GMLRS rockets, but in future, based on Ukraine’s needs, longer-range weapons may be transferred as well.

Telegram channel FighterBomber, who is close to Russia’s Air and Space Force, answers why Russia does not destroy Ukraine-controlled bridges over the Dnipro. According to him, destroying a bridge requires air-dropped bombs, not missiles or shells. 6-10 FAB-500 or heavier FAB-1500 bombs would need to be dropped. Even guided bombs are dropped from a distance where an aircraft is vulnerable to enemy air defenses. Thus, to destroy bridges, one must first destroy anti-air systems, but this is a very hard task for the Russian forces that lack intelligence and precise long range fire assets..

The EU has eased the sanctions on providing goods and services to Russia’s civil aviation; support in this sphere will be permitted to the degree required to ensure the ICAO’s work. Apart from that, it is now allowed to deal with Russian state-owned entities on agricultural products or transportation of oil to third countries. The EU explains this decision as an attempt to avoid negative consequences for global food and energy security.

New details have emerged on a strike on Russian positions at the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant. The loitering munition allegedly hit a canteen with Russian officers and specialist.

Swedish journalist Lars Vilderang has researched the photographs of the aftermath of the Antonivsky bridge attack and believes it was hit with Excalibur precision artillery shells, not GMLRS.

Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti published a video where Ministeк of Defense Sergey Shoigu issues Hero of Russia medals to soldiers. In this video, we can see Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, which refutes the rumors that he was dismissed and somehow punished.