Dispatch for July 20

Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the US National Security Council John Kirby says that Russia is preparing to annex occupied territories in Ukraine as it did in Crimea in 2014. As of today, the last presumed date for conducting the referendum is the beginning or middle of September.

The Head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Andrii Yermak says that it is important for Ukraine to end the war before winter. We assume that he is not referring to combat operations but to the economic crisis, energy crisis, and pressure on European authorities from their constituents who are tired of the war, of the flood of refugees, of inflation and the precipitous rise in prices for fuel and food.  

Rustem Umerov (member of the Ukrainian delegation in negotiations with Russia) reports that Ukrainian grain will be exported through three Ukrainian ports: “Odesa”, “Pivdennyi”, and “Chornomorsk”. According to him, there won’t be any Russian ships in Ukrainian waters and there should not be. A monitoring group will be present to verify that there are no weapons on board the ships arriving to load grain. 

While visiting Tehran to meet the presidents of Turkey and Iran, Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia would contribute to exporting Ukrainian grain if all restrictions on Russian grain supply were lifted. Probably, he meant lifting sanctions on some Russian banks and allowing them to conduct transactions.  

Various units of Russia’s Eastern Military District are reportedly exiting Ukraine territory in order to redeploy from the annexed Crimea. The choice of such a long route means that the overland Taganrog-Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson route is partially exposed to fire and is not safe enough for troops' movement. We assume that they will either reinforce the Russian forces on the Kherson axis, or will be used in an offensive to seize the initiative on the Zaporizhzhia axis. 

The Russian forces shelled Nikopol again, hitting houses. Two people are reported killed and nine wounded. 

The Russians continue shelling the Saltivka neighborhood in Kharkiv; currently three people are reported killed and two wounded. 

Slovyansk's trolleybuses have reportedly been evacuated towards Dnipro. We believe there is currently no fear of imminent capture of the city, but the trolleybuses could be damaged by shelling. 

More details have emerged on yesterday's destruction of a Russian Podlet-K1 radar in occupied Lazurne; apart from the radar station itself, a command vehicle and a generator were also destroyed. 

Photos show the aftermath of the detonation of a Russian ammunition depot in Stakhaniv (Kadiyivka) on July 15. 

Yet another hit on a Russian warehouse in Skadovsk (Kherson region). The video shows secondary detonations. 

The Ukrainians struck Russian positions near the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant with Warmate loitering munitions. 

Smoke is rising again from Antonivsky bridge; it is currently unknown what happened, we will wait for more reports. 

Yesterday's videos from the Antonivsky bridge show 8 or 9 holes very close to each other. It is currently unknown whether it was hit with HIMARS rockets or Excalibur precision-guided shells. Civilian cars continue crossing the bridge, but some analysts believe it would be dangerous to drive a tank across the bridge in this state. 

Many pro-Russian Telegram channels are worried about a possible destruction of the bridge and a "bottleneck" forming at the Kakhovska dam. One suggested solution is a pontoon bridge. We believe it would be harder to implement, because the Dnipro is about 1,400 meters wide there, so the structure will not be stable. It will also be visible even in free low resolution satellite imagery, and thus easy to hit by artillery. Another possible solution of the supply problem for the Russian forces on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro is using PTS amphibious vehicles. We doubt that the Russian army has enough PTS vehicles ready. Other vehicles will be also very vulnerable to artillery during loading onto PTS and unloading from them.

Some pro-Russian Telegram channels fantasize about destroying the bridge over the Dnipro in Zaporizhya with a Pion long-range cannon. We calculate that the circular error probable for the Pion/Malka at such distance would be 100 meters or more. Thus, about every tenth shell would hit a 10-meter bridge and up to 100 shots would be required to destroy it. The Ukrainians will definitely perform a counter-battery strike while this is happening. Destroying this bridge also won't be of much effect, as there are other bridges over tge Dnipro, including the DniproHES dam in Zaporizhya itself. 

The occupying authorities in Melitopol are reportedly paying pensions with counterfeit rubles. 

CIA director William Burns says that the US Intelligence community believes that Russia lost 15,000 servicemen killed in action and three times as many wounded. The Ukrainian losses are somewhat smaller. We haven't updated our own estimates for some time, but they are close to this figure. 

The US House of Representatives has approved funding for training Ukrainian pilots to fly American fighter jets and allocated $100 mln for it. The US considers creating a new Ukrainian Air Force in future to fly Western planes. 

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley says that the USA is closely monitoring the use of HIMARS in Ukraine. Currently the speed of missile expenditure is of more concern than the number of launchers. 

Russian independent outlet Vyorstka reveals details on regional Wagner PMC supervisors who recruit volunteers to fight in Ukraine. Three of the nine known recruiters are ex-convicts, at least two have worked or continue working in law enforcement. 

Roderich Kiesewetter, an opposition (CDU) member of the German Bundestag, revealed the details of Germany's military aid to Ukraine (this is not an official document and may have been a misunderstanding). Germany would supply 20 Leopard 2 tanks, starting with one tank per month in April 2023 and three per month in October 2023 (we remind that Poland transferred almost 300 T-72 tanks two Ukraine in the first two months of this stage of the war).

The Russian forces continue filming comedy sketches about apprehending "saboteurs". This time the lead actors are the National Guard, but it looks no more convincing than a previous video by the FSB special forces. 

In a military court in Ryazan, a trial is ongoing about a stamp "Prone to treachery, lies and deceit. Refused to take part in the special operation" put into the claimant's military ID. The claimant believes these stamps are illegal. 

Finally, Patron, the Ukrainian demining dog and internet celebrity, celebrated his third birthday.