Dispatch for August 6-7

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

The Zaporizhzhia NPP has long been under the control of Russian forces. However, it’s manned with Ukrainian personnel, and the electricity generated there is forwarded to the territories controlled by Kyiv. The Insider independent Russian language media outlet has posted evidence of the deployment of Russian military vehicles on the territory of the ZNPP. Earlier, we saw that a large number of Russian soldiers were present on the territory of the power plant, and the MLRS deployed there were striking Nikopol. According to international humanitarian law, ZNPP is now a legitimate military target.

On Friday, Russian forces fired on a pipeline transporting hydrogen to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The power grid was also damaged, which led to disconnection of the fourth power unit from the power system and transferring it to the reserve. According to the locals, the Russian side is shelling the territory of the nuclear power plant, but we haven’t yet collected sufficient evidence of this.

There are unconfirmed reports of Russia's intention to redirect part of the electricity generated by the ZNPP to Crimea.

Discussions continue regarding the future direction of the Russian offensive. Some analysts and experts say that Russian troops will advance on Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv, while others believe that Russian troops will attack Zaporizhzhia and try to seize the initiative there. We lean towards the second scenario since Russia’s plans for the annexation of occupied territories include the city of Zaporizhzhia. 

Many analysts believe that Russia will attempt to move to the administrative border of the Kherson region and even advance a little beyond. We do not think that Russia has sufficient forces for a large-scale attack along this axis (for the capture of Mykolaiv and Odesa).

Head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration Vitalii Kim says the Russians have no chance of capturing Mykolaiv in the near future, but they will attempt to advance to the border of the Kherson region.

Western analyst Def Mon put together a map of the disposition of Russian battalion tactical groups along various axes:

1. Izium: previously 30 BTG, now 17-20 BTG.
2. Donbas: previously 32, now 13-15 BTG.
3. Zaporizhzhia: previously 11, now 17 BTG.
4. Kherson, left bank of Dnipro: previously 4, now 27 BTG.
5. Kherson, right bank of Dnipro: previously 13, now  22 BTG. 

All the videos from Pisky published by the pro-Russian sources were geolocated to the outskirts of the village.

In the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian troops blew up a pedestrian bridge across the Bakhmutka River as they retreated.

In Makiivka (Donetsk Region) Ukrainian forces hit an ammunition depot. Igor Strelkov (Girkin) confirms that the warehouse belonged to rocket and artillery forces.

The shelling of Nikopol continues: over the last few days there have been more than 20 strikes which destroyed more than 50 buildings and injured at least three civilians. 

Russian forces hit a residential building in Kostyantynivka (Donetsk region); most of the building was destroyed, there are still people under the rubble.

In Kherson, the Russian troops are using civilian infrastructure to house military facilities. In particular, a military communication center was established on the top floor of a residential building on the Avenue of the 200th Anniversary of Kherson. 

The Motolko project reports that a Russian IL-76 delivered rockets for S-300/S-400 complexes to Belarus from Pskov. Even though the S-300/S-400 system is intended for air defense, Russia is trying to get rid of outdated S-300 rockets and uses them for firing at ground targets. We have already seen these rockets strike Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Now, we may see them used in the Kyiv direction.

Quoting the advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych: “Our aviation showed more in terms of strike density than we have seen during this war. Eight to ten aircraft at a time in one raid, and there were multiple raids. Knowledgeable people say that Russian air defense systems either aren't operational in the Kherson direction, or are limited in their capabilities”. 

Evidence has emerged that Ukraine has used a AGM-88 HARM high speed anti-radar missile. Usually, this type of missile is launched from American aircraft, such as the F-16. In the case of Ukraine, we can assume two alternative launch options. Firstly, the manufacturer of the AGM-88 has shown a container modification (a launcher that permits ground launching). Secondly, perhaps Ukrainian Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter jets were modified in the past months, so that they can launch these missiles.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claim that the Russian side has lost 5 air defense systems in the last 24 hours, an unseen rate of destruction over the past 4 months.

Politico reports that the European Commission has developed a new draft proposal of the already promised €8 billion of financial aid to Ukraine. €5 billion will be disbursed as loans, and the remaining 3 as grants. “The new draft proposal comes after Germany refused to provide guarantees to back up to €9 billion in loans for Ukraine.”

According to Reuters, today the White House will announce another $1 billion security assistance package for Ukraine that includes both munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles. 

People from 110 countries joined the fundraising platform UNITED24 initiated by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The total amount of charitable contributions has reached UAH 6 billion. The collected funds were used to purchase a Mi-2AM-1 helicopter, which is used mainly for evacuating the wounded from the battlefield, and professional military drones: 78 Matrice multi-copter drones, 20 Fly Eye 3.0 drones and two Warmate complexes with 40 kamikaze drones. 

Spain decided not to supply Leopard 24 tanks to Ukraine due to their poor condition. They’ll deliver M113 armored personnel carriers instead. 

MaxxPro armored vehicles made according to the MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected) scheme (i.e. armored cars protected from mines and small arms fire from ambush) reportedly appeared at the disposal of Ukraine.

Pickup trucks with NAFO emblem (North Atlantic Fella Organization) donated for the AFU  have arrived in Kyiv. It`s a joke community from the English-speaking segment of Twitter, members of which mock and reveal Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine, troll russian diplomats and propagandists and raise funds for support of the Ukrainians. The participants and sympathizers can be identified through avatars and memes with fellas (The Fellas, as they call themselves) — anthropomorphic Shiba Inu dogs often dressed in military uniform.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the Russian Forces have destroyed a HiMARS platoon; this time, in the given «evidence» video one can`t even distinguish the object`s shape.

In the Mariupol Chamber Philharmonic, cages are being installed. Probably, for organizing a public court martial over the Ukrainian POWs. 

An image emerged, which allowed to locate a video with the dismantled corpse of a Ukrainian soldier as filmed in Popasna. There we can see a specific modus operandi of the Wagner group, familiar to us from Syria.