Dispatch for August 31

Ukraine’s offensive

There were no significant changes in the frontline yesterday. Only the first day of the counterattack was marked by a large advancement, when the Ukrainian forces rapidly liberated several settlements.

Satellite imagery of fires point the places where the hostilities continue: Vysokopillia, Snihurivka, Posad-Pokrovske and other locations in the Kherson direction.

According to a claim (which is confirmed by many researchers), Ukrainian forces expanded the Inhulets bridgehead near Davydiv Brid and approached the Bruskinske village from the south-west. The road next to it is one of the major supply routes for the Russian troops in Davydiv Brid. Cutting this road will significantly worsen the situation for the Russian troops and facilitate the advance of the Ukrainians. 

The latest map by analyst Nathan Russer shows the main directions of Ukrainian attacks, according to claims from different parties. So far, there are very few confirmations in the form of objective information coming from the locations.

A map of strikes by HIMARS from August 29th to 31st has been published.

The Russian Defense MInistry claimed that 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. If we apply the typical casualty rate coefficient of the Ukrainian side (about three wounded per one killed), then there should be more than 5000 wounded.

We have estimated the length of the frontline (using, among other sources, the map by Nathan Russer) and the potential number of advancing Ukrainian forces, and we believe that the estimate by the Russian Ministry of Defense is greatly overstated (total losses of about 7000 people are too many, there is no evidence supporting this).

Satellite images of the Darivka Bridge have appeared: places of hits are visible, but the condition of the bridge doesn't look critical. Near the bridge, we can see a pontoon crossing, which is used by trucks.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides claim that the Antonivskyi Bridge is unsuitable even for passenger cars.

There is also video footage of strikes on an improvised ferry crossing made of pontoon sections near the Antonivskyi bridge.

Ukrainian forces continue to strike at the Russian rear:

• A video has appeared from the Kherson region, which shows a powerful secondary detonation.

• A massive fire occurred in Krasnohvardiyske (Crimea) on August 31. According to unverified sources an oil depot had caught fire, however the locals assume that the fire had broken out in an unused store due to the short-circuiting of electric wires.

• There were explosions in Tokmak on the night from August 30 to August 31, presumably, at an ammunition depot.
• A blast occurred near an office of the “We are together with Russia” organization in Berdyansk on August 30, no casualties.

On the night from August 30 to August 31 Russian forces shelled Kramatorsk, residential buildings were hit, there are injuries. 

Russian forces shelled Kharkiv on August 30. In the Kyivskyi district a residential building and an office building were damaged, two people were injured. In the Novobavarskyi and Kholodnohirskyi districts unexploded cluster munitions remain. 

August 31st dispatch by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claims that the Russian 3rd Army Corps is being redeployed to Zaporizhzhia axis. So far we have not seen any photo or video footage that could serve as proof.

Movement of troops and military vehicles bearing previously unseen identification markings – a circle inside a triangle – continues through the cities of Shakhtarsk, Snizhne and Chystiakove (Torez). While some analysts believe that it’s the 3rd Army Corps, we aren’t as certain. Considering that forces of the Russian Group of Troops "Center" were spotted in the city of Khrustalnyi (Krasnyi Luch), we are inclined to believe that it’s the Group of Troops "Center" that is moving to Donetsk from the northeast of Luhansk region.

It should be noted that on August 30th the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the Russian forces were reinforced in the area of Kurakhove (Donetsk axis) by regrouping with some units from the Central Military District (part of the Group of Troops "Center").

In addition, in Russia, on the M4 highway aka Don Highway,  a convoy of military equipment bearing the tactical markinh “a circle in a triangle” was spotted. The military license plates with the code 76 indicate belonging to the Central Military District.

Remnants of a downed Tochka-U rocket, allegedly Ukrainian, were found  in the Yakovlevsky District of the Belgorod Region, Russia. 

Published photos of one of the defenders of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol demonstrate how much he has changed during the 100 days in Russian captivity.

The US State Department warned that Russia could face new sanctions if a “referendum” is held in any occupied territory of Ukraine.  

Furthermore, the White House confirmed that Iran has supplied Russia with Mohajer-6 and Shaned UAVs.

The Swedish government announced a new 500-million-SEK relief package for Ukraine, consisting mainly of 155 mm artillery shells.

The Insider published an article by Pavel Luzin, in which he claims that by the end of the year Russia will have practically no shells or artillery systems left. We disagree on that conclusion, and will address that issue in detail in tomorrow's dispatch.

The head of the Zaporizhzhia occupation administration Yevhen Balitsky reported in his Telegram channel, that he was leaving for Crimea due to family reasons and would lead the administration from there, but deleted the post shortly after publication.

Reporter Michael Weiss published a story about a shootout between Russian artillery servicemen and FSB operatives in a Kherson bar. Details of the story are from the documents he obtained from the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, of a criminal case that was filed against one of the shooters.

The on-going media war between the Governor of Saint Petersburg Alexander Beglov and Yevgeny Prigozhin (the oligarch running Wagner PMC) continues. Prigozhin's media outlets report that barely 100 volunteers for the "Special Operation" were signed up in Saint Petersburg. Earlier Beglov, while reporting to the Legislative Assembly of Saint Petersburg, told of the criminal cases filed against persons connected with Prigozhin's businesses.