Dispatch for August 25

The shelling of Chaplyne in Dnipropetrovsk region 

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian troops carried out a strike on a military train in Chaplyne. Some pro-Russian Telegram channels, such as “Военный осведомитель”(Millitary Informant), noticed videos of a train with some military trucks on flat cars, which in their opinion justifies the attack.

However, we have not yet seen any photos or videos of dead military personnel or damaged military equipment and haven’t received any reports of military deaths. We also do not have precise information about the locations of all the civilian victims of the strike (we only know a few locations). It’s possible that the rest of the people were in residential buildings nearby or in the passenger train which stood on the tracks adjacent to the freight train (it’s notable that no military equipment is visible near the passenger train).

We unequivocally consider the usage of the Iskander missile in a strike on a residential area a war crime (indiscriminate use of weapons). And the second strike, using Smerch and S-300 MLRS, violates the principle of proportionality of damage, because military trucks are an insignificant target. The photos show that the railway tracks were not even damaged in the attack. Russia had the opportunity to avoid the death of civilians, for example, by carrying out the attack at night or by hitting railway tracks away from the residential areas.

Offensive by pro-Russian forces

Former Russian commander and military blogger Igor Strelkov (Girkin) writes that the Armed Forces of Russia are continuing limited operations in the direction of Mykolaiv along the southern bank of the Inhul irrigation canal. Several experts, including the Ukraine Battle Map Twitter account, reported yesterday on the capture of several communities along this canal by Russian forces.

Shelling by Russian forces:

• According to Ukrainian reports, about 200 artillery shells hit in and around the city of Siversk every day. However, no offensive operations in the Siversk direction are being conducted.

• The Synelnykove, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region were shelled again. The city of Kryvyi Rih was shelled with cluster munitions which has been confirmed with video footage of multiple explosions as well as photographs of shells and unexploded submunitions which hit a residential area. We recall that a well-known athlete Daria Kurdel was killed during a previous shelling of Kryvyi Rih with cluster munitions.

•  Two rocket strikes over the Vyshhorod district of Kyiv region were registered during the night from August 24th to August 25th. Some rockets were intercepted by air-defense systems. No injuries or casualties among civilians. 

Developments regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP issue:

• The British Intelligence has published satellite images of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. In these images, armored military vehicles can be spotted, which Russian forces were trying to hide behind the trees. 

• The Ukrainian mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov reports that, as a consequence of constant hostile shellings, the city finds itself on the brink of a humanitarian disaster for there is now neither electricity nor fresh water.
• For the first time in history, a total disconnection of the Zaporizhzhia NPP from the power grid has happened. Because of the fires at the Zaporizhzhia TPP ash dumps, the fourth power supply line connecting the Zaporizhzhia NPP to the Ukraine power grid has decoupled twice. Three other lines had previously been damaged by the occupation forces. As a result, the two power units of the NPP under load were disconnected from the power grid. Repair works of connecting one of the power units to the mains are currently underway.
• CNN published satellite images of the fire south of the ZNPP

Explosions and fires were seen once again in the area of the Antonivsky bridge.

“Smotri media” project filmed a pontoon crossing that is being constructed from barges and the ferry crossing operating across the Dnipro, where Russia continues to violate international humanitarian law by placing military equipment and civilian trucks and buses together.

A video of the aftermath of the shelling of the base of the “Pyatnashka” brigade in Donetsk appeared. It shows a large building with a destroyed roof and numerous traces of combustion.

There were also strikes at the customs point on Elevatornaya St. in Donetsk. Photos from Russian military correspondents showed military equipment ( e.g Ural trucks).

Ukraine Weapons Tracker published a photo of a Russian 9A331M Tor-M2 AD system which was destroyed by a Ukrainian AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile. 

The first video confirming the presence of the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft vehicle at the front in Ukraine has surfaced.

The Pentagon believes that Ukraine does not need ATACMS missiles for now. The highest priority is the delivery of GMLRS guided missiles, which are suitable for the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS. The US military department hopes that this will allow Ukraine to restrain the advance of the Russian troops.

The Pentagon also says that the transfer of new fighters to Ukraine will take years, and it's easier to re-equip the existing equipment.

In addition, Ukraine will switch to NATO weaponry in the coming years. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will use far fewer different weapons systems, which will make their maintenance easier.

El Pais, citing the Spanish Defense Ministry, reports that Spain is sending a new assistance package to Ukraine. It includes a Skyguard-Aspide surface-to-air missile system, about 20 M113 armored personnel carriers, 75 pallets of ammunition for field artillery, 1,000 tons of diesel fuel, and about 30,000 sets of winter clothing and uniforms. The armored personnel carriers and ammunition are already in Ukraine's disposal.

The CEO of Baykar, Haluk Bayraktar, declared that Baykar does not consider it possible to supply Bairaktar unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to Russia. 

The Economist claims that sanctions do not have the expected level of the damaging effect. The service sector in Russia has even less damage than in previous crises. Electricity consumption and the railroad load are growing -- which are indirect parameters for assessing the health of the economy.

The New York Times published an article about the defense of Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Among others, there is a story about a guy whose home village was freed 8th years ago by Azov. Back then, he was 12 years old. Now he is 20, and he fights as an Azov soldier.

They also write of the soldiers having to be extremely careful defending Azovstal due to the presence of civilians. We remind that from a certain point the plant was one of the few reliable shelters in this part of the city.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation reports that a traffic police office has been opened in the Kharkiv region where you can register a car and obtain a driver’s license.

Also in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, police departments are being incorporated into the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia and traffic police departments reporting to Moscow are created.

The Vedomosti newspaper writes that no annexation referendum will occur on September 11th.

Vladimir Putin has increased the number of military personnel from 1.9 to 2.04 million people (by 137,000) starting in 2023. We remind that even the previous target has not been reached and we observe Russian military units significantly understaffed during the course of the current invasion. The purpose of the current headcount increase is not yet clear.