Dispatch for August 24

The Washington Post published the final part of the series of publications about the beginning of the war.

While the political leadership of Ukraine discussed the reports about the complete unpreparedness of the Russian Army for a full-scale invasion and was convincing themselves and others that there would be no war, the military leadership of Ukraine tried to play it safe and prepare as much as possible. Moreover, this initiative did not take place at the highest level (For example, the commander of Ukraine’s Air Force Command North dispersed aviation to different airfields; additionally, the decision to blow up the Irpin dam was made to intervene in the advance of Russian troops towards Kyiv). As a result, Washington knew less about Ukrainian defense plans than Russian offensive plans. Perhaps this was what formed the opinion of the West that Ukraine wouldn’t hold out for long and Kyiv would be captured in 72 hours.

The publication begins with the story of one of the Ukrainian border guards on the border with Belarus. For them, the war began with a kamikaze drone hitting tents with sleeping soldiers (those not on duty). Just hours before, they joked that the Western politicians continue to baselessly warn of an invasion, and it was their border point that became one of Russia’s first targets.

A short time later, the head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine informed Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denys Anatoliyovich Monastyrskyi that fighting had begun in three regions in the northeast of the country. Monastyrskyi then informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyi about the beginning of armed hostilities. Zelenskyi called an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine which decided that the President and those officials directly involved with the military and intelligence and law enforcement agencies would stay in Kyiv while the rest of the government would evacuate to western Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyi made this decision despite all the threats to his life because he was sure that Kyiv would not be able to hold out without him. 

On the morning of February 24 Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Russia Dmitriy Kozak telephoned Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrii Yermak and demanded that Ukraine surrender. Yermak’s answer was unprintable.

According to the article, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov recalls that on February 22 he was called by Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin who gave his word as an officer that the Russians would not invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. However, a few days later Khrenin passed on Minister of Defense of Russia Sergei Shoigu’s demand for capitulation in a trembling voice. Reznikov replied that he is ready to accept a capitulation of the Russian forces. It is important to note that we allow for the possibility that Khrenin was truly out of the loop and did not know that there would be a war because even inside the Kremlin and in the Russian Presidential Administration not everyone knew that what was happening was real and not a bluff.   

The entire Ukrainian government, even General Syrsky, the commander of the defense of Kyiv, considered that if there would be a war, it would only be in the Donbas. That's why there were only two lines of defense of Kyiv: along the suburbs and in the center of the city. Only the paratroopers and the 72nd Mechanized Brigade were defending that direction.

It is pointed out that a week before the invasion, the Ukrainian military deployed field command posts, and Syrsky established combined battalions based on training units and deployed artillery positions to the north-east and north-west of Kyiv. Thanks to these preparations (dispersal of equipment and military personnel), it was possible to avoid heavy losses when Russia attacked permanent military bases on the first day of invasion.

The article also describes how in the following days of the war Andrii Yermak (Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) sent pictures of murdered Ukrainian children and destroyed cities to Western officials, including US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and members of the US Congress. In the vast majority of cases, the addressees called him back with an offer of additional assistance. Volodymyr Zelenskyy acted in a similar way, telling his Western partners that this might be the last time they would see him alive.

Shellings by the Russian side:

• Avdiivka was shelled on August 23; a shell hit a house with a mural.

• A railway station and residential houses were shelled in Chaplyne, Dnipropetrovsk region, on August 24. According to the latest information, twenty five people died, including two children, thirty one people were injured. This railway station is a part of the logistics supply chain to Donbass. However, we believe that the damage done does not proportionate to the military advantage gained.

• Kharkiv was shelled with cluster munitions on the night of August 24.
• Oleksandr Starukh, the Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, claimed night strikes on infrastructure facilities in the Shevchenkivskyi and Komunarskyi districts of the Zaporizhzhia region on August 24.
• Three districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region (Dnipro, Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih districts) were being shelled with Russian BM-21 Grad and BM-27 Uragan multiple rocket launchers throughout the night of August 24. Two Russian Kh-22 anti-ship missiles hit the Dnipro region; the explosion caused a fire, no information on casualties so far. Two residential houses were destroyed, more than ten houses were damaged, and one family was injured in Marganets. Twenty strikes hit Nikopol, residential houses were damaged, no people injured.
• Today, at 11:00 am, Myrhorod (Poltava region) was hit by a massive strike with air-to-surface missiles, presumably Kh-22. According to the Ukrainian 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade, a military facility was hit resulting in a fire that burned for a long time. The number of victims and the extent of destruction is being determined..

Shelling by the Ukrainian side:

• The authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic declared that on August 23, Donetsk administration building, Tsentral Hotel and a residential building came under fire, killing 4 people and injuring 10. Kommersant and TASS sources announced that the strike destroyed the office where the State Duma [Russian lower house of parliament] delegation, including its speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, had been a little earlier. This is another example of abiding by the principle of proportionality of damage. 
• A warehouse in the temporarily occupied town of Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia region) was hit. Sounds of secondary detonation are not audible in the video,  possibly due to the distance, but flying shells are clearly visible which means that it was either an ammunition depot or a military equipment base.  

• Smoke could be observed in Horlivka, no details yet.

• The occupied city of Roven’ky, Luhansk region, was hit by Tochka-U missiles. According to the separatist media, they landed at the local traffic police records center, two people were killed. We believe that the target was an oil depot located across the fence from the building.

In Zaporozhzhia region, a bomb exploded under the car seat of the Russia-appointed mayor of the occupied village of Mykhailivka, Ivan Sushko. He died in the hospital.

The Ukraine Battle Map project reports that in the Mykolaiv direction, Russian troops advanced west of Snihurivka and took control of several villages. We do not yet have confirmation of this information. Ukrainian forces control the settlements of Soldat’ske, Zeleniy Hay, Blahodatne and Posad-Pokrovske.

Well-known Western analyst Nathan Ruser has published a map of the changes of the front line since June 25th. Looking at the bigger picture, the capture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk does not make much impression. The stagnant stage of this war is evident.

According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov, the worst case scenario for Ukraine is already behind us. In his opinion, Ukraine is on the verge of a "new stage of the war", launching its counter-offensive campaign. He also called the "fatigue syndrome" in the international community as one of the main threats to the Ukrainian fight against Russian aggression.

The head of the Spanish Ministry of Defense, Margarita Robles, believes, based on intelligence data, that Russia may attack Kyiv again. We believe that she means a missile attack, not a land offensive (Russia does not have enough strength for that). Robles also warned that the war in Ukraine will be “long, very hard and very brutal.”

According to a representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament), Ukraine has terminated the agreement on measures to ensure the parallel operation of energy systems with Russia. This will stop the transit of Russian electricity through the territory of Ukraine. We do not know what kind of transit it is about, and we will be glad if you share information on this matter with us.

Alyaksxandr Lukashenka (President of Belarus) congratulated the people of Ukraine on Independence Day. He wished the Ukrainians "a peaceful sky, strength and success in establishing a decent life."

Photos of Bayraktars appeared, the ones for the purchase of which Serhiy Prytula's fund raised money and which were given by the Baykar company for free.