Dispatch for August 23

In summary of the last four months, we can state that the conflict is currently in a stalemate. During this time, the front line has not changed much. Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk were occupied, but no other significant changes occurred.

As for our estimates of the Russian military personnel losses for six months:

• Between the Armed Forces and the National Guard we estimate between 11 and 17 thousand KIA;
• About 4 thousand killed in the DPR and about 3 thousand in the LPR;
• The Russia-based Union of Donbass Volunteers has lost approximately 1500 people;
• The losses in the Wagner group could amount to another 1500 people.

In total, the losses on the pro-Russian side add up to at least 20 thousand people, most likely even more.

To some extent, these losses can be replenished with the help of the 3d Army Corps and, possibly, partial mobilization (although we do not find this scenario realistic). The biggest problem remains that there is practically no one left to train the new recruits, since the majority of teachers and instructors (officers who served on the training grounds) have already been sent to the front line.

Meanwhile a record number of servicemen is trying to resign from the Russian Armed Forces by any means.

As for losses of Russian armored vehicles, we take into account data from the Oryx project (most investigators share the opinion that this data represents approximately 70% of actual losses). During six month of military action, Russia has lost:

• 971 tanks;
• 1060 IFVs;
• 502 vehicles of other types (MT-LB tractors, BRDMs and ARVS);
• 143 APCs;
• 100 Tigr and Rys armored vehicles;
• 76 units of tube artillery;
• 162 self-propelled guns;
• 92 MLRS;
• 66 various air-defense systems;
• 52 warplanes;
• 49 helicopters;
• 117 UAVs;
• 1445 trucks and SUVs.

These are significant losses, for Russia currently is not capable of replenishing lost BMP-2 IFVs and Т-72 tanks, with which the majority of Russian military units are armed. Some number of tanks and BMPs in storage appeared to have been disassembled for spare parts (cannibalized), because the Russian defense industry failed to keep up with producing the sufficient amount of spare parts. As a consequence we notice that more and more often BMP-2s are replaced with out-of-date BMP-1s.

The Ukrainian “Militarnyi” website analyzed Russian tank reserves:

• 2000 tanks are battle ready
• 1300 are subject to restoration
• There is still space for 1300 tanks in the hangars, however it is unknown whether they are full.

Thus, the existing number of Russian tanks is enough for another 2-2,5 years of war. Separately, we note that aircraft, for example, have not even started being taken out of storage.

As for the Ukrainian side, the main problem is the lack of vehicles, equipment, and ammunition, whilst the problem of mobilization is less pronounced.  

Ukrainian combat soldiers, suffering from a weapons shortage, regularly record video messages in which they complain that they were trained on modern weapons but were only issued “a Degtyaryov machine gun that their grandfathers used [in WW2] and one mortar”. For that reason we call upon Western countries to overcome bureaucratic obstacles and deliver as many weapons and armored vehicles as possible to Ukraine. Even obsolete equipment is quite effective in this war. For example, the purchase of old Soviet weapons from South Korea and Cyprus is a possibility. 

Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz announced his readiness to provide 500 million euros worth of additional military aid to Ukraine. In particular, this includes three additional Iris-T ground-based air defense systems, a dozen armored maintenance-recovery vehicles and much more. Shipment dates are not known.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. intends to strengthen sanction pressure on Russia in order to decrease its income from export and import operations.

Today, a new $3 billion package of US aid to Ukraine is to be announced. In this case, we are talking about long-term contracts for the production of new weaponry and ammunition that will take a year or two to reach the front. 

Slovakia will transfer 30 BMP-1s to Ukraine and will receive 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Germany in return. 

In the Marinka district of the Donetsk region, the ninth (confirmed) M777 howitzer was lost by Ukrainian forces. 

Another downed Bayraktar is shown near Vuhledar. At the moment, we do not know whether the wreckage is new or recycled from before. 

Soldiers of Russia’s 810th Separate Marine Brigade were spotted near Vuhledar. 

Mykolaiv’s military governor Vitaliy Kim comments that in the statements about “Russia’s partial success in the vicinity of Blahodatne”, success is in name only. He expresses confidence that the Ukrainian military will soon be able to drive Russian troops out of the settlement. We note that Blahodatne is a very small village and the control of it can very quickly shift from one side to the other.

Authorities of the self-proclaimed DPR report that the personal apartments of Denis Pushilin (head of so-called DPR) and his secretariat were hit during the shelling of the center of Donetsk. Pushilin himself was not injured, since his apparatus was evacuated long ago and is working in other places. Two reported dead as a result of this shelling. There is no reliable data allowing to conclude who conducted the shelling yet.

Yesterday we wrote about explosions in Donetsk, presumably at the base of the Pyatnashka International Brigade. The impact point was geolocated and almost coincides with the place from which Grad MLRS fired back in 2017. 

Galaktika mall is on fire in Donetsk. According to the invaders-appointed mayor of Donetsk, the fire was caused by shelling and a direct hit.  

Vladimir Zelensky claims that Ukraine has nothing to do with the murder of Daria Dugina.

Yesterday, many people discussed various conspiracy theories, discovering the discrepancy between Daria Dugina's open-casket funeral and the Mash media outlet report in the first hours after her death that the body was completely burned and difficult to identify. Mash is famous for publishing unreliable information, and the first videos from the murder scene showed the body lying on the asphalt away from the burning car.

The eight presenters of the Navalny team’s "Popular Politics" YouTube channel were prosecuted for justifying terrorism and spreading "fakes" about the Russian army. Also, in Ekaterinburg, politician Evgeny Roizman was detained and charged with "discrediting" the Russian Armed Forces.