Dispatch for August 22

Situation on the front line:

• For the third day in a row, Russian forces are partially successful with their advance from Vasylky towards Blahodatne (a tiny village in the Kherson region).
• Zvezda (Russian MoD TV channel) showed tanks of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet with ‘V’ symbols on them (which refers to Vostok (East) group of Russian forces) near Vuhledar. Thus, part of the Vostok group, which has been moving to the southern regions of Ukraine from Luhansk region through Belgorod and Crimea for almost a month, has finally joined the fighting in the Vuhledar direction. 

• In the town of Khrustalnyi (ex- Krasnyi Luch, south-west of Luhansk region), the movement of the Center group APCs was spotted, which leads us to the assumption that part of this group will join the battle in the Donetsk direction. 

• Nikopol continues to be shelled from Enerhodar. Over the past day, 42 Grad MLRS shells were fired at it, injuring 4 and causing destruction of civilian infrastructure. 

What does Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) investigation say about the explosion of Daria Dugina's car:

• The explosion was carried out by Natalia Vovk, who allegedly serves in the Azov Regiment (they showed an official ID issued in the name of Natalia Shaban, which states that she serves in the Azov Regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine).

• She crossed the border into Russia driving a MINI Cooper with DPR license plates. She drove around Moscow in the same car but with Kazakhstani plates and then left Russia in the same car with Ukrainian plates. This is confirmed by video surveillance footage in which the same MINI Cooper can be seen with various license plates but with the same people behind the wheel and in the passenger seat. On body cam footage taken by customs officials a woman can be seen who does look like Natalya Vovk. 

• Natalya Vovk stayed in the same apartment building where Darya Dugina lived. She attended the same festival and could have blown up Darya Dugina’s car. 
• We can draw the conclusion from this investigation that Natalya Vovk is not just some random Ukrainian, but possibly a Ukrainian intelligence officer. She might have come to Russia on an operational mission not connected with the Dugins or the festival but could have been surveilling Darya Dugina. After the explosion she had to be evacuated. 
• The photographs of the car with the same woman behind the wheel and with three different license plates look convincing. However, taking into consideration the reputation of the Russian Federal Security Service, they could be high-quality fakes. 

We do not believe that her identification photos are authentic. In addition, the leadership of the Azov regiment claims that Vovk never served in their unit. There is also no proof in the investigation that Natalya stayed in the same apartment building as Dugina.

Shelling by the Ukrainian side:

• The bridge at the Kakhovska hydroelectric power station was struck again. According to local residents, the area near the lock was hit (that part that can be targeted to destroy the bridge without damaging the dam itself). 

• More explosions in Donetsk, secondary detonation heard. Presumably, the base of the international brigade "Pyatnashka" was hit. (The brigade was formed in 2014 and has been participating in the war on the side of the separatists.) There are reports that the initial strike happened at about 4am with the secondary detonations lasting for four hours. The brigade commander Akhra Avidzba claims that only a single UAZ jeep burned down. We are not aware of any vehicles capable of exploding for four hours after being hit. 

• The pro-Russian telegram channel “Military Informant” reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a HIMARS strike against a repair team restoring the surface of the Antonivsky bridge and that two workers were killed and at least 15 people injured. In addition, the impact coincided with a ferry crossing and there were victims among the passengers. The Russian media are trying to present this strike as a war crime; however, in our opinion, the Antonivsky Bridge is a crucial transport artery supplying ammunition used to shell Ukrainian settlements. Therefore, in this case, the principle of proportionality of damage is observed.

It is also noted that Russian forces began construction of a pontoon crossing near (underneath) the Antonovsky bridge.

In Evpatoria, Crimea, tourists once again took pictures against the backdrop of an S-400 air defense system on a sandbank next to a beach. Such photos usually get deleted quite quickly. It is worth noting that the military is rather weakly masking their positions.

A Russian soldier was stabbed in Melitopol. According to the Ukrainian mayor of the city, Ivan Fyodorov, the soldier sexually harrassed an underage girl on the street, as a result local partisans slit his throat.

A Russian publication, “Verstka”, reports similar conduct by the Russian soldiers who signed a short-term contract and are undergoing training in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region — according to local residents, the troops constantly get drunk and harass women. 

In addition, the occupying authorities began to actively search for partisans in Melitopol, arranging raids in the northern part of the city. According to local residents, four individuals have already been detained. Perhaps these are demonstrative arrests ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny reported that almost 9000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in action. Back in April, two months after the start of the invasion Zelensky talked about 3000 dead. In addition, in July, Oleh Kotenko, the commissioner for people missing under special circumstances, told the media that 7200 service members of the AFU, the SBU, the National Guard and the Border Patrol have been reported missing. Most likely, both the April and the current estimates show only the officially reported KIA numbers and do not include missing in action. That means that the real number of dead now is more than 10,000 people. Even the official death toll of the last six months is twice as high as the losses of the previous eight years.

We have not estimated the losses on the Russian side for a while (we will try to calculate and report the numbers in tomorrow’s dispatch, along with the losses of equipment) but the rough estimate is at least 50% higher than that of the Ukrainian side.

According to the joint calculations of BBC and Mediazona, the losses among Russian military personnel confirmed by official obituaries amount to 5701 people. Considering the number of new graves that have appeared in the cemeteries, journalists estimate that the confirmed list is missing at least 40-60% of those soldiers who were actually buried in Russia. 

Volodymyr  Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, claimed that Russia will cut off all chances of further negotiations if a “show trial” of Ukrainian prisoners of war takes place. In response, Denys Pushylin, the Head of so-called DPR, says that Zelenskyy's claims will not affect the court, all the materials have already been prepared, and the tribunal will take place in any case.

The Federal Ministry of Defense of Germany has rejected a proposal to supply Ukraine with more weapons if it would weaken the Bundeswehr. In our opinion, a faster end of the war is more important than a temporary weakening of the military capabilities of European countries. In addition, we do not quite understand who Germany is planning to fight on land, if they do not want to give their armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Poland handed over five thousand Starlink satellite terminals to Ukraine.

The loss of a Bayraktar Mini reconnaissance drone has been verified for the first time. Also, for the first time in quite a while, there appeared evidence of the use of a Bayraktar TB2 as a combat drone (as opposed to reconnaissance).

Superjob.ru, a Russian job search website, lists Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as part of Russia.

Russian Su-34 fighter aircrafts carried out more than twelve airstrikes on the outskirts of Idlib, Syria.