Dispatch for August 2

News about the Olenivka incident:

• The following communiqué was published on the website of the Presidency of the French Republic: "A few days after a new massacre perpetrated by the Russian armed forces in Olenivka, President Macron reaffirmed his support for the Ukrainian people and their resistance, and expressed his determination to ensure that these crimes do not go unpunished."
• Citing official American sources, the Politico reports that it was definitely not the HIMARS MLRS that hit Olenivka.
• The Ukrainian Ombudsman says that the UN did not respond to his request straight after the incident in Olenivka, and the International Red Cross does not have forensic experts, so they cannot investigate this incident effectively. 

Donetsk axis:

• Strelkov says Russian forces already control 65% of Pisky, but does not provide any evidence. The General Staff of Ukraine recognizes the partial success of Russian forces on this axis.
• The western analyst Def Mon writes that the Russians are trying to break through Pisky to Opytne and Vodiane in order to cut off supply to Avdiivka and create conditions for encirclement.

• The Russian side stated and confirmed that they had taken control of the ventilation shaft of the Butovka coal mine (fighting for these positions had been going on for many years); this confirms the partial success of the Russian forces on the Avdiivka axis.

• The Russian military continues artillery shelling of Marinka; two civilians killed in the past 24 hours.

Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk:

•  According to Strelkov/Girkin, there are minor tactical advances of Russian troops in certain areas and mostly trench battles. The AFU maintain the integrity of the  frontline due to long-term fortified positions. 
• Def Mon beleives that the Russian forces want to break through at Soledar and to cut the M03 highway as well as skirt Bakhmut from the south in order to cut the supply lines and to create conditions for partial encircling of the Ukrainian forces there. 

• There are first reports from the pro-Russian side that separatist forces and the Wagner group are already fighting on the outskirts of Soledar, however we don’t have any evidence yet.

Kherson direction:

According to Strelkov/Girkin, the activity at the Inhulets bridgehead has calmed down; instead, fighting is going on near the village of Andriivka.

• Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent Aleksandr Kots published a video of a strike on a Ukrainian pontoon crossing across the Inhulets River. According to him, the strike was carried out with loitering ammunition, but the FighterBomber Telegram channel claims that  it was hit with  a LMUR (a light multipurpose guided missile, also known as Izdelie 305). This is a new (2016) high-precision missile with an optoelectronic seeker. It is usually launched from Ka-52 helicopters and modified Mi-8 helicopters.

Zaporizhzhia axis:

Def Mon notes that the Russian forces tried to send recon teams in the direction of the settlement of Novopil, but had to withdraw. According to him, there is data that the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District is present in the area.

A pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel Zvizdets Mongustu writes that Russia is finishing an operational deployment of a group of its troops on the Mykolaiv, Kryviy Rih and Zaporizhzhia axes. According to the author of the channel, the Russian troops are going to advance along both banks of the Dnipro to the north, i.e. to Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia along the right bank and to Zaporizhzhia along the left bank. But the offensive will begin after resolving "the urgent problematic issues in the Southern Operational Zone." Apparently he is talking about bridges, logistics, crossings and HIMARS strikes. He also writes that the headquarters and mobile control posts of three armies of the Eastern Military District (35th, 29th and 5th) have already been deployed in the Kherson direction, and the headquarters of the 49th Combined Arms Army and 22nd Army Corps are located beyond the Dnipro.

According to Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine, Russian forces have amassed about 30 battalion tactical groups in the south and may start advancing on Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv as early as on August 6th.

Mandatory evacuation has begun in the Donetsk region. The first train arrived in the city of Kropyvnytskyi. The residents refusing to evacuate will be required to sign a paper confirming their understanding and awareness of all the consequences and personal responsibility for their lives.

Mykolaiv was shelled at about 4 am, civilian infrastructure was severely damaged; the number of dead and injured people is still unknown.

Passenger cars continue to use the Dariivka bridge. Trucks and military equipment, apparently, use a ferry or the Kakhovska Hydro Power Plant (HPP) bridge.

The FSB special forces continue raid operations in Kherson. The picture is similar to what the FSB did and continues to do in the North Caucasus, as well as in other regions of Russia, when it comes to crimes related to terrorism or war.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims to have destroyed a HIMARS launcher again. They cite a photo of an FMTV truck used to tow M777 howitzers as evidence. The Russian forces have not hit a single HIMARS MLRS launcher so far.

Russia is ready to refuse prisoner exchange if two Russian prisoners are not received in exchange for Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan. In addition to Viktor Bout, Russia is requesting to include Vladislav Klyushin, the creator of the Katyusha (“Катюша”) media and social networks monitoring system, in the deal. The US accuses him of trading tens of millions of dollars worth of securities with the help of restricted data obtained through cyberattacks. In addition, according to Bloomberg, Klyushin could have access to documents related to the hacking of the information system of the US Democratic Party prior to the 2016 presidential election. (Initially, Russia requested Vadim Krasikov, who is serving a life sentence in Germany, but of course the US has no such authority.) 

Comparing the photos of the houses, where the al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri and Ukrainian businessman Oleksiy Vadaturskyi were killed, one can evaluate the effectiveness of the American and Russian forces respectively.

According to the Le Monde journalist Olivier Truc, Oleksiy Vadaturskyi did understand that Russia was after him. In particular, Vadaturskyi almost got hurt in a missile attack on the University in Mykolaiv a day before the meeting with Olivier Truc.

An American official gave the details about the assassination of the al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri. First, his family in Kabul got identified. Then his typical schedule was revealed. After that al-Zawahiri himself was discovered, and it became known that he spends a lot of time on the balcony. In three months of consultations, including studying of the house model by president Biden, the elimination was authorized on July 25. Two Hellfire missiles were launched from the drone on July 30. It is not known wheher it was a kinetic modification or the one with an explosive warhead.

According to American officials, Ukraine fires 3000 artillery rounds a day. The most recent $550 million military package includes 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, which should be enough for 25 days.

Ukrainian troops started to install additional “hedgehog armur” (our own translation of a german term “Igelpanzerung”) on PzH 2000 howitzers — special panels protecting from cluster bombs.

The Russian Supreme Court has designated the «Azov» regiment as a terrorist organization. In response the «Azov» regiment suggested the  US Department of State to designate Russia as a terrorist state.

The petition for legalizing of gay marriages in Ukraine had gathered more than the required 25,000 signatures and president Zelenskyy has responded. Currently the legalization of gay marriages is impossible due to the ban on altering the Constitution during martial law (currently the Constitution defines marriage  as the union of a man and a woman), but president Zelenskyy has requested the Cabinet of Ministers to study the issue of same-sex unions.The last time the President ordered the Cabinet of Ministers to study an issue raised by a petition it ended up with establishing visa requirements for Russian citizens. Then  a bill draft to emerge to be adopted by the parliament. Apart of proving a pro-Europian course of Ukraine the legalization of same-sex unions gives equal rights and opportunities to the partners of LGBT servicemen. For example, the partners of the ones wounded in action can visit them in hospital, learn about their health condition, consider medical treatment decisions when needed. We remind that legalization of same-sex unions is not about sex at all, but about legal actions: access to medical secrecy, inheritance, division of property.