Dispatch for August 18

The aftermath of the shelling in Kharkiv:

The debris removal continues. The number of dead civilians has risen to 17 and the number of wounded to 42.

Russian forces continue bombarding the Dnipropetrovsk region: Nikopol, Marhanets, Kryvy Rih district; 15 houses, a school, a church, a store, and cars were damaged. One woman was injured. 

The situation at the ZNPP (Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant):

Russian forces are threatening to put 5th and 6th units on "cold standby", which would bring the power plant to a halt. They say they will do so if Ukraine continues shelling the ZNPP territory.

Some video footage has appeared, probably taken by one of the workers. It shows military trucks standing in the machine shop of the power plant and some boxes (possibly with ammunition).

Alexander Kots, a correspondent of the "Komsomolskaya Pravda" media outlet, tries to justify by saying that the Ural trucks are just the station’s security unit and that the boxes do not contain ammunition, they contain "something else". In our view, not very convincing.

Explosions

Yesterday an explosion occurred in the village of Timonovo in the Belgorod region of Russia, where there was an ammunition depot. Thanks to satellite images published by the Radio Free Europe journalist Mark Krutov, radar images, and FIRMS images (which show fires), it is clear that ammunition boxes were moved to a wooded area near the depot, where the fire or explosion occurred. Details and causes are not yet known.

Explosions were heard in Nova Kakhovka yesterday, and there were reports of new strikes on the bridge over the hydroelectric power plant.

“Pops” were also heard in Belbek (Crimea). Apparently, it was the work of an anti-aircraft defense system. 

Ukrainian forces struck a small section of the railway bridge in the village of Krynychna in Donetsk region, and rail traffic there has now been halted. It could have been a strike by HIMARS as well as tube artillery.

The US has given Kyiv a permission to use the delivered American weapons to carry out attacks in Crimea, Politico reports, citing a senior official in the Biden administration.

National security experts have urged the US to supply more weapons to Ukraine, saying the war is "at a pivotal moment." “Out of an over-abundance of caution about provoking Russian escalation (conventional as well as nuclear), we are in effect ceding the initiative to Russian President Vladimir Putin and reducing the pressure on Moscow to halt its aggression and get serious about negotiations,” the statement concludes.

Ukrainian activist and comedian Serhiy Prytula, who has successfully raised money for arming the Ukrainian military, purchased a subscription to receive data from the ICEYE satellite constellation with the money initially fundraised for the purchasing of Bayraktar TB2 drones (Baykar, the manufacturer of the drones, decided to give them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for free). These satellites take radar images every few hours with a resolution of 25 centimeters per pixel during any weather and time of day. Their only disadvantage is that they are affected by radar corner reflectors set up by the Russians. But a thin camouflage net is not a hindrance for these satellites. 

Previously, we used similar images to track position changes of military equipment.

Journalists from investigative centers Bivol (Bulgaria) and Fundacja Reporterów (Poland) disclosed evidence that Bulgaria was trying to supply Ukraine with defective ammunition that was purchased in Belarus in 2015-2020. In early May 2022, Alguns Ltd., a Bulgarian armed industry company, was supposed to supply Ukraine with various types of ammunition produced back in the 1980s:

• 122-mm BM-21 Grad MRLS shells, 
• 122-mm D-30 howitzer (2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer) shells, 
• 152-mm D-20 howitzer (2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer) shells, 
• 130-mm artillery shells (we mentioned this very rare munition yesterday). 

Delivery was to be made by the Romanian state-owned corporation CN RomArm S.A, with overall costs estimated at $200 million. However, both Ukrainian and Romanian sides were unhappy with the condition of the rockets, many of which were deformed or rusty. 

We witnessed the movement of two trains carrying T-62M tanks across Russia in June, and another one in August, and found out that these trains were going from the Divizionnaya station in Ulan-Ude, where the Russian 227th Equipment Storage Base is located. At our request, the OSINT expert Benjamin Pittet verified this information using his access to satellite data, confirming the ongoing demothballing of military hardware depots.

The “Important Stories” media outlet published the story of another Russian contract soldier who fought in Ukraine. He recalls how he went to Ukraine to fight Nazis, but upon arrival, he realized that he was the fascist. He talks about huge losses in the first days of the war, detention camps in Brianka and Perevalsk in occupied Luhansk region for soldiers who refused to fight, as well as torture, beatings, and death threats.

Citing their own sources, the Meduza independent news website writes that the Kremlin is at a loss about what to do with the planned annexation referendums. In May-June Russian authorities were certain that by September Donetsk region would already have been under Russian control for some time and it would be possible to prepare a referendum without haste. However, once again the Kremlin’s analysis of the situation at the front was incorrect.

The Presidential Administration is currently working on a backup scenario to hold the vote in winter. Kremlin hopes that the Russian forces will seize the entire Donetsk region by December-January and maintain control over already occupied territories. We doubt that this plan is realistic.

Suspects and accused in Russian pre-trial detention centers are recruited for fighting in Ukraine. Olga Romanova, the founder of the Russia Behind Bars foundation, has told about cases of recruiting in some jails in Moscow region. The same information was revealed by the author of the project Gulagu.net Vladimir Osechkin. He says that people called their hotline and told about suspects and accused who were offered to go to war. The recruitment takes place in pre-trial detention centers of Moscow and its surrounding region, Saint Petersburg, Ryazan, Tver and Bryansk.