Dispatch for August 13 — 14

Dispatch for August 13 — 14

Conflict Intelligence Team

The “Important Stories” media has published an interview with a former Russian contract soldier, Daniil Frolkin by name, from the 64th Separate Guard Motor-Rifle Brigade (home base located in Khabarovsk). 


According to him, it was a total surprise for the brigade personnel to be informed of invading Ukraine two hours before setting off on February 23rd. Initially he claimed that not personally him (Frolkin) nor the brigade as a whole had committed any crimes. After the correspondents had presented testimonies of victims and eyewitnesses (villagers from Andriivka in the Kyiv region, which was captured by the 64th Separate Guard Motor-Rifle Brigade), Daniil Frolkin admitted stealing food because of poor supply. But after the interview he called back the correspondents of “Important Stories” and admitted on the record that he committed war crimes (looting and killing of civilians suspected in spotting for Ukrainian artillery). 

Artillery spotters can be counted as combatants. However, according to the international humanitarian law, killing a combatant is acceptable only in action, but they can be taken prisoner. And civilians can’t even be prisoners of war.


On August 8th a Russian war correspondent, known as Sreda (Wednesday), published a photo from Popasna, where a person resembling Evgeny Prigozhin (supposed founder and head of the Wagner group) is depicted. The meeting took place in the street near an alleged Wagner group base; a plate with the address of the nearest bomb shelter can be seen in the photo.


Several days later this building was shelled, a photo and a video of the aftermath were published, but it is still unclear whether the shown people had really been injured. The pro-Russian side states that it was a strike performed by AFU with HIMARS, but no evidence has been provided so far.


Our team’s opinion is that this could have been a provocation by the Russians to lure out and destroy a HIMARS. We also allow for the possibility that it really was Prigozhin in the photos.


Former Russian commander and military blogger Igor Strelkov (Girkin), who in recent months has actively criticized the Russian Army high command, attempted to make his way to the front using false documents issued to him by the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation but was detained in Crimea. This was reported by his former comrade-in-arms Igor Bezler. Strelkov currently is refusing to comment on Bezler’s statement (and declares that he has not been held in a temporary detention facility). However, he does say that sooner or later he will make it to the front since the war, in his words, will be “long and difficult”. 

Igor Strelkov (Girkin)


The Ministry of Defense of Russia announced that Pisky is completely under the control of pro-Russian forces. Later, however, the public affairs office of the “DPR People’s Militia” published a video showing strikes against positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Pisky near the dam.       


Elements of the Russian Group of Troops "Center" began their advance in the direction of the Soledar-Siversk defense line.


According to Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yurii Ihnat, the Russian air base in Novofedorivka has not been crippled by the recent explosions, as its runway remains intact and in operation.


A video of yet another Ukrainian night strike on The Antoniskyi Road Bridge was released, with the footage depicting Russian air defense in action. The Ukrainians claim that as result of this attack The Antonivskyi Road Bridge is finally put out of commission for good.


Radar reflectors were placed on the road section of the bridge near the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. Based on the photos, the section in question is damaged, but it seems like road traffic is still possible.


Vitaliy Kim, head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, claimed that the leaders of the occupation forces have relocated to the left bank of the Dnipro. The Ukrainian mayor of occupied Melitopol elaborated that they moved to that city specifically.


Photos of an explosion in Nova Kakhovka were released, with the detonation of an ammunition depot being a possible cause. This same area was already the site of an explosion at an ammo depot near the Russian railhead there. 


It is reported that Ukrainian forces attacked the headquarters of the 1st Army Corps of the “People’s Militia of the DPR” in Makiivka resulting in a large number of wounded and dead, however it is yet unconfirmed.


News has appeared about the 3rd Army Corps, which has been forming for several months in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia. It is reported that some elements of the corps will be sent into battle from August 20-21, despite the fact that it cannot be fully equipped. Perhaps this indicates an imminent intensification of the conflict. 


According to Ukraine’s Operational Command “South”, the Russian army hit the port infrastructure of Mykolaiv using a Uragan MLRS. Presumably, this is connected to the fact that Ukraine is considering the possibility of adding the Mykolaiv port to the “grain corridor”.


Russian forces continue carrying out shelling and rocket attacks on Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Nikopol was fired at with tube artillery; nine high-rises, eight private houses, a school, and several stores were damaged. Marhanets was hit with Grad MLRS; a 69-year-old man was wounded; over ten private houses and the power grid was damaged.


A Pion self-propelled gun of the Russian forces was seen in Enerhodar.


Russian forces continue to shell Bakhmut and Kharkiv.


The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the capture of the village of Udy in the Kharkiv Region. We do not expect any large-scale offensive on Kharkiv to follow.


According to local residents, sweeps are being carried out in Kherson: the Russians go from house to house, open garages, stealing property along the way. 


On the Odesa beach of Zatoka, vacationers were blown up on a mine;  two people died and two more were injured.


Western researcher Perun made a video about Ukrainian mobilization. He counted all military equipment (including captured and supplied by the West) and came to the conclusion that Ukraine now has, at best, the same amount of equipment as it had before February. Its composition has changed, but the number has remained about the same. At the same time, the size of the army tripled. Accordingly, the main problem of the mobilization now is the lack of equipment, and the second is insufficient training. The mobilization structures were not prepared for such a major war, and the Territorial Defense is intended for national resistance, and not for major front-line operations.


Forbes Ukraine columnist Volodymyr Datsenko published an interesting infographic about the Western military aid to Ukraine. It turned out that the Western military support is generally declining, despite a slight increase in some items in August. The main decrease is in artillery, the supplies of which have remained at the lowest level within two months. The Ukrainian soldiers on the front line regularly complain about the lack of artillery shells and guns. As for long-range weapons and helicopters, there was an increase in supplies in June, and then a decrease started in July and continued in August.


Slovak Defense Minister Nagy denied the information about the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. “They (fighter jets) will protect our airspace until late August.” If we understand it right, in September they will still be transferred to Ukraine.


A photo appeared of the Ukrainian military using the Milan anti-tank guided missile system supplied by France to Ukraine. There is also a video of a successful use of the British Stormer self-propelled anti-aircraft missile system equipped with the Starstreak High Velocity Missile (HVM) (it shot down a Russian Orlan drone).


Slovakia has delivered the first four Zuzana self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.


Russia plans a long-term war in Ukraine and is relaunching its defense industry. The Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation, chaired by president Putin, is trying to change the state defense procurement program by the beginning of September increasing spending. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Uralvagonzavod which used to produce T-72 tanks and now T-90 tanks (we estimate 5-10 per month).


The situation with "pops" at the airfield in Zyabrovka, Belarus in the night of August 10 to 11 did not get much clearer. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus stated that an engine caught fire there during an equipment test after repairs. Satellite images show something like a T-72 tank, a BREM armored recovery vehicle and a crane. Why one would repair equipment on the runway at 11 pm is not very clear, but so far there are no alternative, more plausible versions of what happened.


Russia started additional gas supplies to Hungary. Talks were held last month between Moscow and Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, after which the Russian Gazprom state company began supplying more gas than "already agreed upon in the contract." 


Ukrainian border guard dog handlers received protective equipment for service dogs: bulletproof vests, goggles, boots and headphones.



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