Dispatch for August 10

New satellite images of the Saky airfield in the vicinity of Novofedorivka have appeared.   

They coincide with the locations of the munition storages or the drop fuel tanks (DFTs) that were visible in earlier satellite images. Traces of multiple detonations of different size ammo (e.g., several small craters within one large crater) are visible. 

Images show two exploded munition hangars (and possibly DFTs) and an airplane next to one of them. Please take note that in the previous report we got a geolocation of the ammo depots wrong (the distance between them turned out to be about 60 meters).  

Comparing images of a concrete pad with the planes “before” and “after”, we cannot make unequivocal conclusions that the dark spots on the “after” images are destroyed planes, because there is no debris (maybe they were removed in time). These spots could have been left by some other burned vehicles or the DFTs. Some of these spots are also visible in earlier satellite images. 

In photos of a different aircraft apron we see seven destroyed planes. This is the largest single loss of aircraft since the beginning of the full-scale war. Some of those aircraft which seem to be undamaged in the photos also could have been damaged by shrapnel, but as yet there is no proof of that.

Today the Mash Telegram channel published security camera footage from a store in Novofedorivka with time stamps. The first shock wave hit the store at 15:18, and then at 16:10 two more shock waves arrived approximately half a second apart. The time difference between the second and third explosions indicate that they did not occur simultaneously. This confirms our theory that the explosion of one ammunition depot caused the explosion of a second one (the speed of the shock wave is very high).

We assume that one explosion occurred initially (which was not caught on video) and a fire started. It could have been caused by a missile strike directly on the warehouse (there are no other large craters in the immediate vicinity). In this scenario it is not clear why the S-400 surface-to-air missile system located 30 km from Novofedorivka did not react to the incoming missile.

The more likely scenario in our opinion is that the explosion was caused by a loitering munition strike, which could have been launched by a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage unit (similar to the strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol).

The fire caused a detonation of warehouses (two subsequent more massive explosions) in 52 minutes. During this time, part of the aircraft and personnel could have been evacuated (we still do not know anything about casualties). Civilians were apparently not warned.

We need to clarify that storage of ammunition next to aircraft is a common practice for the Russian army.

A fire is reported in Chonhar village, Kherson region, which is located 150-180 km from the front line (further than the hitting range of HIMARS launchers with GMLRS rockets). Some sources reported explosions, but we still do not have any details.

There was a series of explosions at the Zyabrovka airfield in Belarus yesterday. The Press Service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus denies any explosions or hits and claims: “On August 10, at about 23:00, one unit of equipment ignited during a test run after an engine replacement. Fire extinguishing measures were taken by personnel in a timely manner. No one was hurt.''

The developments on the front line: According to the General Staff of Ukraine, Russian forces tried to advance in the direction of Husarivka (Kharkiv region), but to no avail. Also unsuccessfully, Russian troops made an attempt to break through the Ukrainian defenses in the area of Velyka Komyshuvakha

On the night of August 9 to 10, one of the most horrific shellings took place in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, says that the Nikopol district was fired upon by Grad MLRS; the town of Marhanets and the Mirivska community fell under fire. In Marhanets, 10 people were killed, 11 were injured; 10 are in hospital, 7 of them in severe condition.

The Belarusian Gayun project reports that another shipment of missiles for the S-300/S-400 systems has arrived in Gomel; a hauler carryinh those missiles was also spotted.

Ukrainian aviation continues to function and use, among other things, high-precision weapons. In particular, SU-24 jets armed with Kh-25ML (AS-10 Karen) laser-guided missiles have been spotted.

CNN writes that the Russian delegation that visited Iran received instruction on how to control Iranian drones. It’s important to note that an official visit and weapon training are different things. So far, we have not seen any evidence indicating that the Russian military is undergoing training in piloting Iranian drones.

New footage of the damaged road bridge and railroad tracks at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant has appeared. In addition, a destroyed R-439-MD2 satellite communication station was captured on video.

The Ukrainian side reports a strike on the building of the administration of the Kakhovka Canal. According to their report, the building was used as a Russian headquarters. We have not yet seen any obituaries related to the event, but they may be coming later.

Russia has begun the process of connecting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Crimea. President of Enerhoatom Petro Kotin states that Rosatom personnel handed over a special programme to reconnect ZNPP to Crimea. According to him, if the power station is disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid, Armed Forces of Ukraine can damage the power lines to which the ZNPP is planned to switch. 

“RIA Melitopol” publication reports that there was an explosion in the city center, near the “United Russia” headquarters in the “Foxtrot” shopping center on the night of August 8-9, there were no casualties. There is information that it was used for annexation “referendum” preparations.

Ukraine expects to earn $20 bn on grain exports. Ukraine currently has dozens of requests from countries willing to import grain. That illustrates the belief of ship owners and traders in fulfilling the grain deal under the auspices of the international commission. Three seaports of  “Greater Odesa” can receive up to 80 vessels a month.

Slovakian oil company Slovnaft reports: “the Druzhba (Friendship) oil pipeline transports oil to Slovakia again, the supply to Hungary will recover, apparently, within tomorrow“. Transit across Ukraine has been restored after Slovakia and Hungary had paid down the Russian debt to Ukraine.