Dispatch for August 10

What’s known about the explosions at the airbase in Novofedorivka, occupied Crimea

To this moment, there is no consensus among our team regarding these events, so we can only issue our comments on some versions.

1. We do not believe in usage of HIMARS with ATACMS or GMLRS munition here. Even assuming ATACMS missiles are already supplied to Ukraine, it would be strange to use them first on Crimean targets but not Donbas ones. And loading HIMARS on a ship, approaching the coast of the peninsula for 80 km range and using GMLRS is too dangerous and technically impossible (Ukraine has no suitable ships).
2. We do not believe it was a saboteur group operation. It is too difficult to conduct such a large-scale operation on such a vast military facility. 
3. Although the version of sabotage by Russian soldiers is technically possible, it seems so unlikely that we don't seriously consider it.
4. The version of the use of AGM-88 anti-radar missiles on air defense facilities and the subsequent strike by a kamikaze UAV or an R-360 Neptune cruise missile on one of the ammunition depots looks convincing. Such an impact could cause a large fire, leading to the detonation of very powerful aircraft munitions. And this second explosion could cause a simultaneous detonation of another warehouse, which was located at a distance of 600-700 m from the first one. 
5. In our opinion, an accident due to careless handling of fire could indeed cause a detonation of ammunition. We have documented cases of Russian soldiers causing fires and explosions in wartime conditions due to non-compliance with safety regulations in the Rostov region and in Syria.

The hardest part to explain is that the two explosions happened virtually simultaneously, with only a fraction of a second between them. It is practically impossible to synchronize a missile hit or kamikaze drone attack to this extent for the two warehouses.

Furthermore, it is surprising that the air defense system did not work, as it is unlikely that the first strike managed to destroy the entirety of the air defense systems.

The New York Times, citing its sources, reports that the attack was carried out by a Ukrainian-made missile. This could have only been the “Neptune'' anti-ship missile, which can also be used for ground targets, and its range is 280 kilometers (the distance between the frontline and the Novofedorivka is about 220 kilometers). This theory aligns well with the fact that there was a fire at an ammunition depot in Novoaleksiivka (Henichesk district of the Kherson region), 150 kilometers from the front line. 

The Ministry of Defense of Russia stated that it was careless conduct with fire that led to the detonation. At the moment, we know of 13 people injured and one killed. 

Satellite images of the airbase, taken a few hours prior to the fire, show twelve Su-24, ten Su-34SM, and one Il-76 aircraft (the latter apparently managed to fly away).

Additionally, videos with destroyed vehicles emerged. Video with the destroyed Su-24 has not yet been geolocated, but there is a geolocated video from a parking lot 600 meters away from the nearest ammunition depot, which shows burned civilian vehicles and a huge fragment that pierced through a surviving car.

Situation at the front

The General Staff of Ukraine reported on the partial success of Russian Forces at the Bakhmut axis: they managed to advance in the direction of the Vershyna. 

Russian state-owned RIA Novosti correspondent reports from the battlefront that the 2nd National Militia Army Corps of LPR is conducting a sweep operation at the Knauf plant on the outskirts of Soledar, jointly with Wagner group. 

Belorussian Motolko project says that another Russian Il-76 transport aircraft has landed in Gomel, possibly, again loaded with missiles for S-300/S-400 air defense systems. This is the 3rd Il-76 during the last 3 days. 

Russian forces have again shelled Nikopol with Grad MLRS; several residential buildings were damaged; three enterprises got their workshops, workrooms, offices and equipment damaged; an employee of one of the enterprises is hospitalized with a fracture. 

The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs says that Russian forces shelled a part of Donetsk region controlled by Kyiv with MLRS rockets. Several settlements were hit as well as a school and a humanitarian aid distribution point; killed and wounded among casualties. Of 27 settlement bombardments 13 were directed at Avdiivka. 

Ivan Fedorov, the Ukrainian mayor of occupied Melitopol, informs about huge blasts taking place in the western part of the city; no details so far.

Ukrainian troops mine roads on the pathways to Soledar with Swedish DM31 magnetic landmines. Such mines are activated through alteration of the magnetic field, not by pressure. 

 A video of the aftermath of the strikes on the Antonyvskyi Road bridge shows a man with the insignia of the Investigative Committee of Russia. This is a visual proof of the Russian Investigative Committee officials operating in the occupied territories. 

The Telegram channel of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Kherson region reports that a criminal case has been opened in Nova Kakhovka under an article of the Criminal Law of the Russian Federation against a deputy head of the temporary (occupation) administration, who was engaged in robbery and extortion. 

The deputy head of the occupation administration of the Kherson region, Kateryna Gubareva, declares that all settlements of the Mykolaiv region that have come under the military control of the Russian forces will be administratively attached to the Kherson region.  

The news agency RIA Novosti quotes a representative of the pro-Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhzhia, Volodymyrr Rogov: “We have begun to apply the law of the Russian Federation in various aspects of life”.

Another Ukrainian prisoner of war died in Russian custody. Pro-Russian media predictably write that he was a nazi and a drug addict and that he died from pre existing conditions related to his addictions. But we believe that the cause of his death was torture and the lack of decent living conditions in the prison camp. 

As in all previous cases, Russia is fully responsible for this event. 

The city of Luhansk is practically empty due to men hiding from the mobilization campaign.

That has not occurred in Donetsk.

Ukrainian marines have received 50 Turkish-made Kirpi MRAP vehicles, and 150 more are expected. 

U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl announced that in the opinion of the U.S.,the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have sufficient quantities of HIMARS-type MLRS, and the priority now is to ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition. Taking into account how HIMARS are currently being used (for strikes on targets in the enemy’s rear with high-precision GMLRS munitions), we agree with that assessment. 

Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak reports that current Ukrainian losses in manpower are 30-50 per day. Also, according to him, claims of an impending counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops against Kherson were part of a psychological operation. This causes us to wonder whether this statement is also part of a psychological operation.

Earlier we talked about Ukrainian soldiers arriving in America for prosthetics care. Information has surfaced indicating that the American “Right to Walk Foundation” made prostheses for the small girl named Yana and her mother who were wounded during the strike on the Kramatorsk railroad station. 

A Soyuz rocket launched the Iranian Khayyam satellite into orbit.

An RF Ministry of Defense advertisement about the recruitment of an artillery battalion was seen on the streets of Russia’s Yaroslavl region (we are having a difficult time understanding why they are recruiting under the Serbian flag).

A friendly match featuring Shakhtyor Donetsk football club, which was supposed to take place in Yalta on August 12, has been rescheduled for autumn "due to technical issues."

We expected Olenivka to be visited by UN experts investigating and documenting the evidence of what had happened, but instead we saw an actor Steven Seagal (perhaps now he is an expert from Russia).

The head of collaborationist administration of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo regained consciousness. The record of intoxication by an unknown substance has disappeared from his diagnosis, now officially doctors suspect unspecified encephalopathy, purulent tracheobronchitis and pneumonia.

Nikita Mikhalkov, an award-winning movie director and Vladimir Putin’s confidant, made a segment of his BesogonTV programme devoted to Konstantin Tulinov, a convict recruited by the Wagner group to fight in Ukraine. According to Gulagu.net, the project monitoring the  human rights situation in Russian prisons via insider sources, and Fontanka, a Russian media outlet, Tulinov, while being under arest in the Kresty pre-trial detention center, had been known as “an activist”, a convict or an arrested who on wardens’ orders tortures his cellmates in so-called “pressure huts”, the cells specifically arrenged for such purpose. It should be noted that the ongoing situation is detrimental for the crime rate in Russia in the near future. For instance, after the freezing of the conflict in the Donbas in 2015, the number of armed assaults on cash transit vehicles increased.

The Russian news outlet Baza reported on the the admins of a number of pro-Kremlin telegram channels being detained. Almost all of them are accused of extortion from Rostec affiliates and are suspected of spreading fakes in the interests of Ukraine in order to destabilize the situation in Russia.