Demographics and war

The entire history of humanity is a history of war. First between tribes, then between states. That is why modern man has retained the ability to unite against "strangers". As long as resources are abundant, it is possible to live in peace with all people, regardless of religion, nationality or race. But when the basics of life become scarce, the division into “ours” and “foreigners” begins.

Politicians have forgotten that population numbers have regulated themselves over the past centuries through wars, epidemics and famines. In the past, fertility was not socially regulated, but determined solely by the biological characteristics of Homo sapiens. The fertility rate at that time was well over two. It was common for families to have more than 4, sometimes even more than 10 children.

In most poror countries, birth rates are still determined by biological constraints. At the beginning of this century, the Middle East experienced a population explosion, that is, a dramatic increase in population. Then came the drought. Even without the drought, water and food were scarce, so the cities were flooded with masses of young, angry, unemployed people. The so-called “Arab Spring” began and a war of all against all. The funny thing is that Western leaders who are making gigantic efforts to end the wars in the Middle East never understand why nothing works and where all these armed gangs and ISIS come from.

The Malthusian Curse is a theory of demographic limitation. It states that population growth will lead to resource depletion and a catastrophic decline in living standards. The term comes from Thomas Malthus, a British economist and demographer, who suggested in his 1798 "Essay on the Principle of Population" that population growth would become a curse on society. Malthus assumed that demographic constants (fertility and mortality) inevitably lead to a limitation in population growth and a stabilization at a level that ensures minimal survival. Competition for resources increases with population growth, which can lead to conflicts and wars between nations over access to vital resources such as land, water, food, etc.

In Germany, for example, racial segregation and Hitler's rise to power were a result of the economic collapse after the First World War and the enormous reparations payments. Even today, nationalist tendencies are on the rise. The conclusion is simple: This is only possible if large parts of the population become poorer. But both the population and the elites of democratic countries do not understand where the nationalism of our time comes from and why its influence is growing despite strong opposing forces.

The influx of migrants is fuelling growing nationalism in Germany (and Europe). It is interesting to note that the main cause of the worsening economic situation is not migration, but the global economy. Capitalists simply move their capital to countries where labour is cheaper; there are also 'tax wars' between countries that lower taxes for companies and 'tax havens' for the rich to avoid taxes. But the world economy and capital flows are invisible to ordinary people. Unlike the financial flows, the migrants who "do not belong to us" are clearly visible. Hence the wild dislike and hatred of foreigners.

In the past, humanity could not survive without wars. But social and technological progress changes everything. It was not long ago that concepts such as human rights, freedom, equality and fraternity emerged. There are organizations that fight for peace. All this became possible thanks to modern technologies and high labor productivity. And the creation of these technologies was possible only under conditions of freedom and democracy.

Theoretically, humanity could live without wars in the future because technology develops faster than generational change. But for this to happen, the populations of Africa, Asia and Latin America would have to suddenly become “civilized” and start building a digital economy and developing green energy.

The rapid economic and social development of underdeveloped countries is not possible without the active participation of developed countries. Today, the relationship between rich and poor countries is determined primarily by the interests of large corporations, which does not contribute to the progress of poor countries. To change this, we need a “Straitjacket for Capital” and a new policy in line with the “New Ideology”.

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