Delivery of China-made plane C919 delayed repeatedly; The lifeblood of aviation is in the hands of the USA
Hong Kong Echo#Newspaper
(21 Sep) In the past few years, China has invested fully in the manufacture of the domestically-made large passenger aircraft C919. At present, there are 28 domestic and overseas users, and the total number of global orders has reached 815. Some Chinese experts claimed that they could fight against the US and European aircraft manufacturers. However, as the delivery date of passenger aircraft has been delayed again and again, the outside world has begun to doubt whether China's aircraft dream will follow Huawei's footsteps under the general trend of US sanctions.
According to comprehensive media reports, the C919 commercial airliner produced by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China is not progressing well. This large aircraft C919 uses the French Airbus A320neo and the American Boeing 737MAX as competitors. It was originally scheduled to produce the first aircraft by the end of 2015, but it did not fly for the first time until May 2017. So far, only 6 aircrafts have been manufactured for test flights.
"Voice of America" stated that according to an internal document of COMAC marked as July 2020, the company aimed to produce 150 C919 passenger planes a year after the "mature period" in 2019, but did not propose a specific schedule for this goal. And the first customer of the C919 airliner was China Eastern Airlines, which was scheduled to be delivered in 2021.
However, Yusoff, the founder of Endau Analytics, an aviation industry analysis agency, has reservations about whether COMAC can deliver on time. He told the Voice of America that although the aircraft was almost completed, because China was very dependent on Western supply chains, such as many third-party suppliers from Europe and the United States, and the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, he estimated that it might not be delivered successfully until 2022.
The key technologies of the C919 airliner completely rely on American technology
Although the C919 passenger plane is called a "China-made aircraft", it has been questioned by outsiders that it is not 100% self-developed. According to Chinese official media, C919 has achieved a localization rate of nearly 60%. According to media reports, the C919 aircraft relies heavily on foreign technologies. For example, the power system, avionics flight control system, fuel system, power supply system, landing gear, etc, all these directly use well-developed foreign products and technologies, or are manufactured by Sino-foreign joint ventures. China is mainly responsible for the design of the fuselage, wings, tail and interior. Therefore, some experts in the industry say that the technology that China now possesses simply cannot allow the aircraft to fly into the sky safely.
Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group and aviation analyst, said that China's large aircraft engineering mainly relied on American technologies. Without American technologies, China's aviation engineering would be "derailed." He said that the real challenge China was facing currently was engines or avionics systems. Without these related technologies from the West, China would not be able to make a large aircraft because "it does not make much sense to build an aluminum tube with a flag painted on the tail."
American companies master the future of C919? How can China break through?
Some experts believe that the challenges which China's aviation manufacturing industry are facing are no less than the semiconductor out-of-stock crisis of Huawei and ZTE. Mr. Gan Side, Senior Advisor of China Business and Economics and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, believes that China's dependence on the West for aircraft components and assembly is even stronger than Huawei's dependence on the West. With China's strategic development route in recent years and tensions between the United States and China, the United States is likely to impose sanctions on China's aviation industry in the future.He believes that the deterioration of Sino-US relations and China's own military development will be potential obstacles to the future of China's aviation industry.
Yusoff, founder of the aviation industry analysis agency Endau Analytics, also believes that Boeing and Airbus have each controlled half of the commercial aircraft market, and it is very difficult for COMAC to succeed in aviation development. To break the current duopoly, Yusoff believes that it is difficult for China to persuade overseas markets to let foreign airlines buy [Chinese] aircraft. The only possibility is that China may "coerce and influence China’s state-owned airlines and let China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Air China buy these planes." However, it will take at least 10 to 20 years for China to join the rank of major aviation powers.
Reporter: Zheng Riyao
Source: Rfa
https://www.facebook.com/cantonese.rfa/photos/a.454006908007166/4388623041212180/
Translated by: Hong Kong Echo