Defeating the West is not a problem, the problem is what to do with it then
Rostislav Ishchenko (Ростислав Ищенко)Souce: https://svpressa.ru/politic/article/406017/?lbq=1
Russia may have to face the same questions that the United States had to face at the time of the collapse of the USSR.
Alexey Peskov
Today, 24 February, marks exactly two years since SVO was launched. Back then, it seemed to everyone that the difficulties, however difficult, would not last long; the "Ukrainian" airports were initially closed for only a week. Their guess was wrong.
Then the Western countries intervened, and here too the planning horizon was calculated in weeks, at most months: we arm Ukraine, hit Russia with sanctions - and everything there will collapse like a house of cards. But they also hadn't guessed.
In two years, Russia has built up its muscles and trained its brains, while the West faces internal strife and dire economic problems. And the idea comes up that it's advantageous for us to prolong the conflict at the moment, they say, let's wait and the West itself will collapse. That's good, isn't it? But political scientist and Rossiya Segodnya columnist Rostislav Ishchenko, in an interview with “Free Press”, dispelled the hope that all Russia's problems will end the moment the West starts to strain...
"Free Press”: Rostislav Vladimirovich, when the SMO (Special military operation (SMO) - this is what Russia calls the war against Ukraine) against Ukraine began, it was only about Ukraine - but literally in one month the situation turned into our confrontation with the West, with NATO. And it turned out that NATO is not at all as powerful as we and they themselves thought, that in two years of confrontation with Russia everything has become quite sad for the Western countries, and most importantly, they do not see any tendencies for improvement. Can we somehow use the current situation to our advantage?
Russia started the current campaign, by the way, not against Ukraine, but for Ukraine — and it started it for the sake of general security, and not just its own. Russia has declared and continues to declare the principle of “non-division of security”; it cannot be that I feel good and you feel bad. If you feel absolutely safe at my expense, and at the same time I feel in danger, then I will try to get out of this situation somehow. And at some wonderful moment you will find that you are no longer safe.
So Russia's position is clear. The position of the United States and its subordinate NATO is also clear. In the US, domestic stability depends on America's position as global hegemon, because otherwise they will not be able to provide for overconsumption in the country. If the position changes, they will start to become poor and the situation could quickly turn into a collapse. In other words, they need to find some external resource that will ensure both hegemony on the planet and internal stability.
„Free Press”: So, to rob someone?
Exactly. And they expected to find the necessary resources by robbing Russia and China. Since it was not possible to implement their plans immediately, they thought they would solve the problem in the foreseeable future.
When things didn't work out for the foreseeable future, the US decided to rob Western Europe first, and then finish off Russia and China. Yes, they robbed Europe, but they didn't think that robbing your own ally would make you weaker.
The United States has weakened Europe but not solved its strategic problem. And now they find themselves in a dilemma, complicated by time pressure, where there is no good move and no time to come up with something or simply wait out the hard times.
The US has to deal with China, it has to deal with Russia, it has to deal with the Middle East, it has to deal with Europe - and at the same time it has to solve a lot of serious problems at home.
"Free Press”: What's our problem? Sit and wait for the corpse of the enemy to float by...
The wave of problems for our enemy is growing, but Russia should not take advantage of it. We need think about how not to end up with a nuclear state blown up from within.
Remember what worried the United States most in the early 90s? The collapse of the USSR and the spread of nuclear weapons across the former Soviet republics. And until they gathered it in one place, in Russia, their situation was very alarming. And if now the United States explodes from the inside, and nuclear weapons end up in several different states, we will also be very concerned about that.
And the problems in the West are growing. Take the farmers' protests, for example. When it all started, Western experts - I emphasise, Western - who know well all the problems of their opposition, trade union, alternative movements, said: "What about the farmers? They will come out, block the roads for a short time and then go home - they will not be supported by the majority of the working people because they have other interests.
And suddenly - the farmers do not go home, moreover, their movement becomes international, they are supported by workers in other industries, they are supported by transport workers and, what seemed incredible, they are supported by the inhabitants of the cities that the farmers are blocking. The system has gone into resonance and is no longer able to stabilise itself. It is being destroyed before our own eyes.
And all these problems have arisen for the West because, instead of reaching agreements with Russia, it has entered into confrontation with Russia, misjudging both Russian resources and its own. But because of what is happening, there will be no benefits for Russia, only new problems.
„Free Press”: What problems are we talking about?
Just as the West faced the problem of privatizing the space that the Soviet Union left behind, we will face similar challenges. There is no such thing as an empty space.
You can say as much as you like that we don't need Ukraine, we don't need Europe, but when one owner leaves, another must surely appear. Especially when the local people are unable to govern themselves, they are always looking for a master.
This is the fate of limitrophes. (Limitrophes is a term used to refer to countries established on the territory of the former Russian Empire. These include Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.) The whole world is basically limitrophes. There are between two and eight great powers, depending on the criteria of greatness, and all the rest simply fluctuate between them. And now they are drifting towards Russia.
Yes, it is to our advantage now because these fluctuations support us against the United States. The whole world is not with the West, and 60% of the world is already with us, and that helps us, but...
But then we will be faced with the same situation that the United States faced with the disappearance of the USSR - the United States has become a global hegemon. Let's say we're not in this situation alone - there will be China, there will be someone else, but still - the responsibility for the world will fall on us. At a minimum - including on us. We may recognise it, we may not recognise it, but it will answer us. People will come to us.
They are already coming - to settle disputes, to resolve contradictions, to ask for help. And when we say that we have good positions in Africa, it means that the locals, who used to go to the French and the Americans with their problems, are now coming to us to find out who is the main leader and who is secondary. And whoever is in charge, the second will be offended. And that becomes our problem too.
And then we have the same problems with the collapsing West, with which something will also need to be done. They will not stop in their suicidal activity, because they have already passed many intermediate points on this path where they could slow down. And unless they destroy the whole world, they will not stop on the path of self-destruction, and we will have to do something about it. We. And not because we really want to, or because of some kind of charity. The destroyed West is a problem for our security.
„Free Press”: That is, the faster the West collapses, the more Russia should be ready to take responsibility for the world. And she is ready not just in words, Russia must be able to bear this responsibility. In purely technical terms.
No doubt. There is no power without responsibility. And when someone comes into our sphere of influence, along with the power over him comes a certain amount of responsibility for him.
Just as we were responsible for the entire Warsaw Pact, for the entire CMEA and for the entire world system of socialism. It will just be called something else now.
The US was also responsible for its allies, but listen to what Trump is saying now about NATO and the Europeans. This is roughly the same thing that was said at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
We have fed the republics, now they will leave and we will be even better off. Trump says he will not support NATO countries that spend less than 2% of their budgets on the alliance. He says he won't support Taiwan because it has stolen American industry. On the one hand this is a perfectly pragmatic approach, but on the other hand it is an approach that deprives the United States of allies.
Allies are not about love, they are about mutual benefit. There has to be something in return. Either strategic space, or some economic benefits, or something else - but we get something we need. And allies want to get something in return. All alliance relationships have always been built that way: you - to us, we - to you.
Therefore, as soon as American allies come over to our side, all responsibility for them falls on us.
„Free Press”: So, we shouldn’t be happy about the collapse of the West, because it promises us huge problems?
Huge problems, yes. That's why we have to negotiate. Putin did not try to reach an agreement with the West because he loves the West very much. He loves Russia very much and he didn't want any unnecessary problems for it. He said - let's come to an agreement and everything will be fine, you have your own front garden, we have ours. You don't bother us and we don't bother you.
But the West could not physically live in the order proposed; this is the system they have built up over the last 30 years. Although the offer we made them was very reasonable. But they could not and want not to rebuild.
Then we will face the same problem, because the system that was fought and won and the system that needs to be built and developed are different systems. Therefore, our main problem is not the victory over the West, especially since we already see this victory, but the problem of building a future world.
A world that will not only be comfortable and convenient, but also beneficial to everyone.