Dating Business Cycles In India

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Dating business cycles in India Radhika Pandey Ila Patnaik Ajay Shah February 28, 2017 Abstract Dates of business cycle turning points are a critical input for aca-demic and policy work in macroeconomics . In this paper, we use contemporary techniques to date the Indian business cycle in the post reform period .
These dates suggest that, on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters in length and recessions run for 9 quarters . The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles .,Dates of business - cycle turning points are a critical input for academic and policy work in macroeconomics .
These dates suggest that on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters long and recessions run for 9 quarters . The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles . Originality/value . . .
Purpose - This paper aims to present a chronology of Indian business cycles in the post-reform period . In India , earlier, macroeconomic shocks were about droughts and oil prices . Economic reforms have led to an interplay of a market economy, financial globalisation and decisions of private firms to undertake investment and hold inventory . This has changed the working of the business cycle and has raised concerns about business - cycle stabilisation .
Dating business cycles in India . NIPFP Working Paper 175, September 2016 . Ajay Shah (2008) . New issues in macroeconomic policy . In : Business Standard India . Ed . by T . N . Ninan . Business Standard Books . Chap . 2, pp .26--54 . Ajay Shah and Ila Patnaik (2010) . Stabilising the Indian business cycle .
Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016 . " Dating Business Cycles in India ," Working Papers 16/175, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy . Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:16/175 Note: Working Paper 175, 2016
In India , we depend on individual studies for dating business cycles . Also, the government should make unemployment data available from time to time .
As a result, the decision regarding the dating of business cycles is not political . This is important in a country like India where GDP numbers are contentious and political parties try to score . . .
Two distinct periods emerge in the analysis of business cycles in India : the pre 1991 period and the post 1991 period . Pandey et al . (2018) on which this one pager is based present an overview of the methods used for arriving at the business cycle chronology in the two periods and the macroeconomic conditions that shaped the cyclical fluctuations in the two periods .
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles . The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions . A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point .
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Dating Business Cycles In India

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