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Refining 101 - Understanding Crack Spreads

10 Jul 2017

By

CME Group

Topics: Energy

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Even though the US economy is still a gasoline driven economy, the HO crack spread has become more and more interesting from a trading perspective as the US is now a major exporter of distillate fuels - HO and diesel. Like the Brent/WTI spread, the HO crack spread is very liquid as well as volatile and trendy - all positives for the trading community at all levels. In addition this spread is also used by the refiners as a hedge during periods when refinery margins are expected to narrow.
It is also a spread that can be traded on the NYMEX division of CME as part of the regulated futures arena. Volumetric activity for the spread is continuing to grow, as is liquidity.
This is a very fundamentally driven spread (as are most spreads) with the same fundamentals driving the direction of the spread for many years. The main fundamental drivers of the spread are:
First let’s quickly discuss what the HO crack spread is and is not. It is not an absolute measure of refinery margins in the US as the HO portion is a wholesale price in New York Harbor as traded on the NYMEX division of CME while the WTI crude oil is price is a spot prices based in Cushing, Oklahoma. It does not include any refinery costs or location adjustments. It is a gross representation of the direction of the distillate component of refinery margins against WTI crude oil - one of the many, many crude oils that the US refiners actually process in their refineries. Simply put, when the HO crack spread is trending higher it means refiners are making more money processing crude oil to make distillate fuel and when the spread is trending lower they are making less money.
With this in mind, the following chart shows the NYMEX HO crack spread plotted on a seasonal chart along with the latest five year average and the highs and lows that occurred when the calculations for the five year period performed.
This is what is categorized as an inter-market spread with reduced trading margins compared to trading the flat price for either of these commodities. This weekly chart clearly shows a modest level of volatility as well as the trending nature of this spread. It also shows the seasonality of the spread with the high points generally hit during the so called official winter heating season (October through March) with the lows generally occurring during the summer months or during the gasoline driving season.
Certainly during the heating season the direction of the spread is going to be primarily driven by the winter weather and thus heating demand for heating fuels in both the US and Europe. During the heating season oil will flow between these two regions depending on the weather and demand for heating oil in each of the respective areas.
In the US the majority of the heating oil consumed for space heating is in the Northeast with minimal quantities consumed in other regions of the US. Thus when evaluating the spread during the winter months, the weather along the northeast coast is important. Also keep in mind New York, which represents almost 1/3 of the Northeast heating oil market, now requires ultra-low sulfur fuel (15 PPM) as reported by the U.S. Energy Information.
The following chart compares the spot NYMEXHO Crack spread with the weekly HO inventories along the East Coast of the US - the primary HO market in the US.
As shown on the chart, there is a relatively strong inverse correlation between HO inventory levels along the east coast with the performance of the HO crack spread. As HO inventories rise the crack narrows and when stocks decline the crack has a tendency to widen. As expected the strongest correlations tend to be during the so called official winter heating season.
In addition the temperatures forecasts for Europe are also very important. These forecasts do impact the short term direction of the spread and add to the volatility of the crack spread in the short to medium term.
Another area that has an impact on the HO crack spread is the supply and demand status of the gasoline market. Refiners have a lot of flexibility to maximize the production of gasoline at the expense of distillate fuel and vice versa. When gasoline demand is strong and/or supply is tight refiners will run in a maximum gasoline mode which will reduce the amount of distillate fuel produced. This could result in distillate fuel inventories declining and thus having a positive or upside impact on the HO crack spread.
In addition during periods of tightness in the crude oil markets caused by rising demand and/or supply issues due to natural events like hurricanes or geopolitical events like seen for many years in the Middle East and in North Africa the price of crude oil (the other half of the spread) could surge higher and have a negative impact on the HO crack spread even during periods when the relationships discussed above comparing inventories and the spread support a widening of the spread.
Finally, scheduled and unscheduled refinery events can impact the spread in either direction. When refineries are shut down for whatever reason it has an impact on production of distillate fuel (as well as all refined products) and often times result in a widening of the HO crack spread. On the other hand, when refinery runs are at high levels, more refined product is produced which could ultimately result in a narrowing of the crack spreads.
The following chart of the refinery run rates along the US East Coast (main heating oil market) versus the HO Crack spread demonstrate this relationship.
The chart shows an inverse relationship between refinery run rates and the crack spread. Although this is not a perfect correlation it holds most of the time. When the refinery runs rates are increasing it generally has a negative impact on the HO crack spread and vice versa.
The above are the main price drivers of the spread.
The information herein has been compiled by CME Group for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or the solicitation of purchases or sale of any futures, options or swaps. All examples discussed are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the individual authors and may not reflect the opinion of CME Group or its affiliates. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME, CBOT and NYMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information herein, CME Group and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. All data is sourced by CME Group unless otherwise stated.
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Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act. Futures and swaps each are leveraged investments and, because only a percentage of a contract's value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for either a futures or swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles and only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because traders cannot expect to profit on every trade.
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Whitney Houston strikes a pose during her performance at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles in April 2001. Two white radio hosts in LA have apologized for offensive remarks about the late Houston, including calling her a 'crack ho.' When was the last time a black rapper apologized for the everyday use of this word in lyrics?
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Black people everywhere, who have never even heard of the 'The John & Ken Show' in LA, are in an uproar about the two white radio hosts who called Whitney Houston a 'crack ho' on air and made other offensive comments. Far worse is the everyday use of the 'ho' word by blacks.
The suspension last week of two popular radio hosts in Los Angeles over offensive remarks about the late singer Whitney Houston has sent shock waves through LA and, thanks to the Internet, the nation.
Black people everywhere, who have never even heard of the “The John & Ken Show” on KFI AM 640, are in an uproar about the two white men, John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, who called Ms. Houston a “crack ho” on air and made other derogatory remarks. Now there’s even talk in Los Angeles about a day of protest against the show and station.
The men said that the star who struggled with drugs was “cracked out for 20 years,” and remarking on her death they wondered: “Really, it took this long?”
As a black woman who listens to the conservative KFI religiously Monday through Friday, and who is not one of the millions of people mourning the death of Houston, even I had to do a double take when I heard this slip of the tongue live last week. I remember thinking, did they really just say that?
Coming off of the Don Imus 2007 controversy and his on-air “nappy-headed hos” comment about Rutgers women’s basketball players, the suspension of John and Ken wasn’t that much of a surprise. We’ve been there and done that.
For the record, white people calling black women derogatory names is nothing new. And even though I listen to The John & Ken Show, as a black woman, at the end of the day I know exactly where I stand with them and what they think about black people.
Are their comments enough to justify national outrage from blacks? Maybe.
However, I’d argue that before a single finger is pointed at John or Ken, most black people need a quick reality check.
While the word “ho” was seldom used on KFI, the same can’t be said for black America where the word is in heavy rotation on a daily basis. From the barely bleeped-out lyrics that we listen to on the radio, the videos we watch on television, and how we speak to and about each other – there’s not a day that goes by where I don’t hear this word. And it’s usually coming out of the mouth of another black person.
Just one scan of the most requested songs on Los Angeles hip-hop radio station Power 106 proves my point. The 2012 Best New Artist Grammy nominee J. Cole’s “Work Out,” features the lyrics, “She bad and she know it. Some niggas save hos, I’m not that heroic.” Nice.
Add to that, this year’s Best Rap Album Grammy nominees Jay-Z and Kanye West and their “Niggas in Paris,” which, if you can get past the title, uses the word “bitch” four times. It is topped by Tyga’s “Rack City” which manages to use that word 22 times in a little over three minutes and says, “All the hos love me you know what it is.”
I could go on and on, from city to city, radio station to radio station and still come up with the same examples.
But it’s not just radio that helps to keep the word ho alive in black America. Thanks to CD players and iPods where censoring is not even an issue, much worse is played in the cars and homes of many of the same black people offended by John’s and Ken’s characterization of Houston.
So while these hosts were undeniably wrong in their demeaning choice of words about Houston, the reality is that they are two white guys on the radio in Los Angeles who have a majority conservative white audience they play to. And even if they used the word ho everyday to describe black women, they still wouldn’t come close to the damage that continues to be done on a daily basis in the black community with our own use of the word.
Black children and teenagers are not listening to KFI but they are listening to Mommy and Daddy enjoy those songs, watching MTV and BET , and listening to music that says much worse than what was uttered by John and Ken. Last Thursday, in a statement, John Kobylt said, “We made a mistake, and we accept the station’s decision. We used language that was inappropriate, and we sincerely apologize to our listeners and to the family of Ms. Houston.”
When was the last time a rapper apologized for using everyday derogatory words?
John and Ken apologized and were suspended. Is it enough? I think so. The chances of them describing a black woman on air this way again are slim to none.
Protesting to extend their suspension or boycotting KFI and its advertisers, even if it were successful, would do nothing to change blacks’ own use of the word and that’s really where the issue is.
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Whitney Houston was a talented singer who died tragically and wasn’t alive to hear herself being called a “ho.” Millions of other black women, however, hear it every day – either coming out of someone else’s mouth or sadly – their own.
A former press secretary in the California State Assembly and US House of Representatives , Jasmyne A. Cannick writes about the intersection of race,
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