Conversations with Fragment Whales. Part 1

Today we will talk to @RARE. Anyone who has participated in the bidding for VIP numbers at least a few times is familiar with his nickname. This investor is known for his fondness for anonymous numbers that contain only two digits - 0 and 8.

Throughout the text, we will bold the interviewers' questions

and quote the guest's answers."

Reference

According to the anton.tools resource, Rare has acquired over 340 anonymous numbers for a total of more than 95,000 TON. Out of these, he has already sold 117 for over 68,000 TON. This connoisseur of rarities started making purchases almost immediately after the launch of the collection by Telegram and has already assembled numerous top-notch combinations. We are sure that many will be interested in learning about Rare's journey. For convenience, we have added some notes and divided the questions into blocks in chronological order according to market events.

Initial Sale

"On December 6, 2022, Telegram first introduced anonymous numbers on the Fragment platform, and on January 1, 2023, the Durov team sold the last number. Since then, they can only be purchased on the secondary market from other users."

Hello! Could you please recall when exactly you learned about anonymous numbers? How did it happen? Why did you decide to give it a try?

I don't remember exactly how it was. I saw somewhere and read on the Internet about an upcoming auction of numbers. I really liked the idea: the world's first collection of NFT numbers. I love beautiful numbers, so I wanted to participate in the auctions.

How many random and aesthetically pleasing numbers did you manage to acquire before the primary offering closed? What was your strategy, to quickly flip them or hold them for the long term?

Initially, I bought about 30 VIP numbers and about 20 random numbers. I selected 5-6 of the best VIP numbers for long-term investments (3 years and above), and I planned to sell the rest in 2-3 months to keep investing in cryptocurrencies. But it turned out that I reinvested all the proceeds from the sale of numbers back into buying more numbers.

What were your overall investments in numbers in December? And roughly, how would you estimate the value of your portfolio now (based on the market)?

I invested only $50,000 in December. But from March to May, I added another $50,000. As a result, the total investment amounted to $100,000 solely in anonymous numbers. Currently, I have about 300 random numbers and 30 VIP numbers. The value of random numbers at current prices is approximately $70,000. It's more challenging to estimate the value of VIP numbers, but roughly, it is around $350,000 - $500,000 today.

Period of Stability

"January and February 2023 turned out to be quite stable for the numbers. Immediately after the closure of the primary sale, the average price per number almost doubled and remained at that level for nearly two months. A significant number of speculators simultaneously began to take small profits. The major players gradually bought back, clearing the way for growth in March."

What were you doing in January and February when the prices for numbers remained relatively stable? How do you remember this period?

As I mentioned before, my goal was to recoup the invested $50,000 and invest it in cryptocurrency, so I was selling numbers. In December, I sold all the random numbers for 18 tons and started selling my beautiful numbers. I received my first profit on December 28th when I sold the number +88800100888 for 1380 tons. That's when I gained confidence that I made the right investment in numbers. I was selling and buying numbers at secondary auctions, and by the end of February, I had sold a lot of numbers.

Did your trading strategy change in any way after the primary sale closed in December?

In early March, my opinion about the numbers completely changed, and I completely revised my entire collection of numbers. I started investing in numbers that I had previously underestimated, and I also began investing in beautiful random numbers. By March, the picture became clearer: I understood that the minimum price for a random number would be around $1000 (the first minimum goal), and some VIP numbers would be worth several million dollars in 2-3 years. For example, I plan to sell my number +888 0888 8880 for at least $1,000,000, and this is a realistic goal, considering rare NFT pictures like Cryptopanks are sold for 4 million dollars. In March, I realized that there are tens of thousands of different NFT picture collections in the world, but only one NFT collection of anonymous numbers.

Rapid Growth

"From the beginning of March, the average price per number surged rapidly until almost the end of May. The cost of a random number reached an all-time high (ATH) around 220 TON in mid-May. If we calculate from the initial price of 9 TON during the primary sale, the asset's value increased by over x24 at its peak."

In your opinion, what was the reason behind the three-month bull run on numbers? What were you doing during this time?

I closely monitored the market throughout this period, and I continue to do so from December until now. The price of random numbers remained around 43 TON for quite some time (after rising from 18 TON since February 23rd). Many people were selling numbers around the 40 TON level. Eventually, sellers became exhausted, and there were too many buyers, leading to a price increase. However, after the price exceeded 130 TON, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) set in, and everyone began buying numbers massively. At the 140 TON level, a large wallet purchased around 300 random numbers, and at levels 160-180, another wallet bought 600 random numbers. But, as usual, after a strong surge, there was a significant correction.

Do you believe there were any manipulations with the price of random numbers? Who could have benefited from this?

As I mentioned before, I constantly monitor the market, and there were no manipulations. It was simply the FOMO effect. FOMO even affected two large wallets. I also continued to buy and even bought some at 200 TON.

Can the actions of the wallet EQCjG5H99tDcIlqX4Hj1sfuve8Pt_9e2RGh_Lj1jQy9grqgq be considered manipulation, where they first bought around 700 numbers and raised the price to 200 TON, and then started selling them for 250 TON?

They started buying numbers from 165 TON to 200 TON. Many people noticed that they had money stuck in a smart contract, and they started buying their own numbers for 250 TON. But Galya quickly noticed this and also started buying numbers from them with stuck TON in the smart contract. There was no manipulation here.

After the price for random numbers surpassed 100 TON, many opinions in the chats suggested that the numbers were overvalued, claiming that digits for an amount > $200 were not desirable. What do you think about this? At what price did you most recently purchase random numbers?

I continue to buy continuously, searching for beautiful random numbers. Regarding the prices, most people are always mistaken. No one takes into account the fact that this is a RARE NFT COLLECTION! It is the only one! These numbers are not for everyone; they are for crypto investors. If Durov keeps his promise and does not release additional series of NFT numbers, then in a couple of years, a random number at $10,000 will not surprise me! Just look at the minimum price of Cryptopanks: 50 ETH. That's $100,000!

What tools do you use to work with numbers? Do you use bots for monitoring, buying, or listing for sale?

Yes, of course, I use bots for listing for sale and for monitoring transactions.

Correction

"June marked the first month when numbers experienced a deep correction. At one point, the price for a random number dropped to 100 TON. The number of transactions on Fragment predictably decreased to 90-100 per day by the end of June (compared to 130-150 at the end of May)."

What did you do during the period of declining prices for random numbers? Did you have a plan?

I observed what was happening and chuckled at the weak hands gripped by panic. People who bought numbers for 140-180 TON due to FOMO were selling them at a loss for 100-130 TON. I witnessed all the hysteria. I monitored the peak of fear: within 3 hours, the price dropped from 126 TON to 103 TON. I bought at the bottom, all the way down to 110 TON. I purchased more than 20 numbers. I triggered the initial impulse, and then the crowd followed, and by evening the price was already around 130 TON. Now I see the same picture I observed when the price was around 43 TON. Currently, there are those who want to sell, and they are selling. But, most importantly, there are many buyers who are starting to outweigh the sellers again. I don't expect sharp jumps. There will be gradual growth.

What do you attribute the decrease in trading activity for numbers in June to? Could the sharp price spikes for random numbers in May have affected users' trust?

Decrease in trading activity = the end of the FOMO stage = the end of local growth. It's that simple. It's all about psychology. I'm not sure if the sharp price spikes could have caused distrust among users. In reality, the cryptocurrency market is in a bearish phase. In such phases, there's usually complete despair and disappointment in the market. When the cryptocurrency market returns to a bullish phase, the prices for numbers will skyrocket, and that's when people will deeply regret missed opportunities.

What is your forecast for August-September?

210-240 TON by September. 340-400 TON by December.

Young and Unique Collection

"Despite having a rich background, anonymous numbers are still a very young project even by the standards of the relatively new NFT market. Official resources provide very little information about the collection. Even Durov himself stubbornly remains silent about his plans and has not yet commented on the discontinuation of the primary sale. Therefore, many are concerned about the prospects of the numbers."

Will we ever see 1000 TON per number - is it a realistic goal? If yes, when?

Yes, of course. I believe that by the end of 2025, we will see the price of 1000 TON per random number.

What do you think are Pavel Durov's plans for the numbers? Is it possible to release a new collection of numbers considering there are only 137,000 of them, and Telegram's audience will potentially exceed 1 billion people?

I think there won't be an additional release. Anonymous numbers are a VIP status. It's not for everyone; it's like collectible items. Let's do some calculations. In December, random numbers were sold for 9 TON, and Fragment earned 9 TON. Fragment takes a 5% commission on reselling numbers. The current price of a random number is 180 TON. 180 - 5% = 9 TON. So Fragment is already making the same amount on one number as it did in December. And when the price reaches 1000 TON, the 5% commission will be 50 TON!!! So let's think, is it really profitable to release an additional collection...

What advice would you give to newcomers who are just exploring the number market? What should they pay attention to in order to avoid silly mistakes?

Learn to understand market cycles and don't succumb to fear and FOMO. Don't invest for just one month; that's not an investment. Ideally, you should invest for 2-3 years or more. And only invest money you won't need during the investment period.

Bonus

Have you read the interview with the trader Galya-u-nas-otmena? What do you think of him?

Yes, I read the interview. Galya is a trader, and I am an investor. As for the issue of funds getting stuck in smart contracts, we all just need to be more attentive and check our NFTs for any locked funds. The STEP team has already added the option to check any address for locked funds in their bot. The check takes only 2 seconds.

When did you learn about the problem with "stuck" tokens in anonymous numbers? Did any of your acquaintances suffer from this? And overall, who is to blame for tokens getting stuck in the numbers?

I learned about this problem only in May of this year. I can't say who is to blame as I am not familiar with the technical details. I believe that this issue will be fixed soon*.

*As of today, the problem with "stuck" TONs has been partially resolved.

Thank you RARE for this interview!

Be vigilant!

Sincerely,

JPGM Team

Tonoteka