College Football Betting Home Advantage Spread

College Football Betting Home Advantage Spread
Which college football teams really have the best home field advantage ? Most sources try to generalize the upper hand into a simple number that can be applied to every team and every game. The fact of the matter is, there is no magic number that applies universally (the national average is just over three points, but it can vary drastically).
Each team has built their own home field profile, and that is what I have tried to capture. I will go into more detail about how I came up with these numbers below, but the table that follows shows how much better each team has performed historically (represented by points) at home compared to on the road.
The data was taken for each team for games between 1989 and 2021 in conference play only to help remove outliers caused by playing inferior non-conference opponents. Keep in mind that some of the best teams in the nation over the past few decades show up at the bottom of this list. This doesn’t mean they don’t have any home field edge, but rather that they play just as well on the road as they do at home, so their true advantage is simply not as significant. We’ve also tried to exclude those teams that haven’t been in FBS (formerly Division 1A) very long so as not to skew the numbers with a small sample size. Also teams like Notre Dame, that traditionally haven’t played in a conference, aren’t included (for what it’s worth Notre Dame’s home field is slightly above average with a true advantage of about 3.5 points).
So, where do these numbers come from? Like I said, I pulled game data for each team for all of their conference games from 1989 to 2021. I then took the difference of each team’s home margin of victory and road margin of victory and divided that number by two to get each team’s advantage at home over a neutral field. As you can see, not all home field advantage is created equal!
There are a few things to keep in mind when you look at this data. First, obviously there is a lot of turnover for college football teams, so there is going to be some fluctuation from year to year, however, over this length of time there are certainly some patterns that emerge. You will also notice that the teams at the top of this list are mostly bad road teams, which influences how much “better” their numbers look at home.
This table is a must have if you are going to improve your college football handicapping . Study it and use it to set you own lines to compare to the weekly point spreads and find your value. Boyd’s Bets is here to help you improve your win rate this season.
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Do College Football Bettors Overvalue Home-Field Advantage?

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Many factors are taken into consideration when handicapping a game, but home-field advantage is one of the most common considerations. There has been a general consensus that home-field advantage is worth around three points to the spread, although the number varies based on venue. That’s particularly true in college football where schools like Michigan play in massive stadiums while smaller schools like Bowling Green essentially play in a tiny shoebox.
For a quick example of how home-field advantage can theoretically affect the point spread, let’s examine a matchup between two evenly matched teams. If neither team should be favored on a neutral field, the home team would likely be favored by three points. If Team A would be 3-point favorites at home and 3-point underdogs on the road, then the change of venue is essentially worth six points.
Despite the common consensus that home-field advantage is worth roughly three points, sharper sportsbooks have a dissenting opinion. According to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu, that number should be slightly lower. “Very generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth about two points in college football,” said Cooley. “But most of the time, home-field advantage doesn’t mean a lot to the oddsmakers, and the betting public usually places a greater value on it than it should.”
Past research has found that home-field advantage is vastly overvalued by NFL bettors, so I wanted to confirm Cooley’s statement and determine whether the same was true for college football bettors. My analysis found that home teams have gone 4,412-3,044 (59.2%) straight up since the start of the 2005 season. Additional research found that in these games, the average margin of victory was 5.01 points.
Bettors may think that because the average margin of victory exceeds the supposed point spread value of home-field advantage, it would be a wise decision to back home teams. They would be wrong. Since 2005, road teams have actually gone 4,039-3,885 ATS (51.0%) including a 415-375 ATS record (52.5%) last season.
There’s also a large segment of the betting population that believes that home-field advantage is enhanced in conference rivalries since the excitement of playing a familiar rival leads to louder, more raucous crowds. Once again, those bettors are incorrect. According to my analysis, road teams have actually gone 2,639-2,455 ATS (51.8%) in conference games.
Many intelligent sports betting analysts have pointed that it is flawed to view home-field advantage as a flat value, instead arguing that it should be viewed as a modifier based on tempo. In simpler terms, the home team has a slight edge on every play but that advantage is magnified based on the number of plays that are run. In a methodical, low-scoring game, home teams would not fully realize their advantage. To test this theory, I decided to examine how the closing total affected the performance of road teams in regular season games.
As you can see, the ATS winning percentage and return on investment (ROI) for college football road teams steadily increases as we gradually lower the closing total. In conference rivalries, the winning percentages increase at every listed data point.
It was also interesting to see how the closing total affected home-field advantage in terms of straight up win-loss records. Although home teams have won 59.2% of their games by an average margin of roughly five points, those numbers shrink dramatically in games with low totals. When the closing total is 48 or lower, home teams have won at a 57.1% rate by an average margin of 3.25 points.
Another key revelation was that home-field advantage was particularly overvalued in marquee conference matchups. As I explained earlier this week, the number of bets has a significant impact on the value of betting against the public . Oddsmakers don’t feel compelled to adjust their lines to account for public perception unless they expect massive liabilities, therefore opening lines are frequently shaded for major conference games but not for small conference games.
Since casual bettors have historically gravitated towards home teams, there has been even more value taking visitors in heavily bet games. When a game is receiving more bets than the daily average, the visitor has gone 1452-1378 ATS (51.3%) overall and 1025-933 ATS (52.3%) against conference opponents. When the closing total is 48 or lower, the ROI skyrockets from 2.2% to 12.5%.
Clearly home-field advantage has been vastly overvalued, which has created contrarian value on visitors. That edge has been amplified in rivalry games — especially when it involves two teams from Power Five conferences. For example, visitors have covered the spread in 57.4% of all low-scoring Big Ten and SEC games.
It’s also worth pointing out that just because teams usually win at home, doesn’t necessarily mean that they cover. Since 2005, the Michigan Wolverines have gone 53-23 SU (69.7%) but only 35-41 ATS (46.1%). Oddsmakers account for home-field advantage when setting lines, but many casual bettors don’t seem to realize that.
It’s tough to definitively determine the point spread value of every school’s home-field advantage, but it’s clear that it varies greatly. “A Big Ten stadium packed to the brim is going to command more of a home-field adjustment than a full house at Middle Tennessee State,” confirmed Cooley. “There is even a difference between the high-profile programs of a major conference. For example, USC has more of a home-field edge than Stanford, even though the latter has been a better product on the field for the last half decade or so.”
One exception to this rule is Boise State and their unique “smurf turf.” Although they’re a smaller school, they have incredible crowd support and oddsmakers believe that their home-field advantage is on par with the nation’s biggest programs.
Bettors can view the latest college football odds, scores, injuries, public betting trends and more by visiting our free NCAAF odds page.
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.
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Welcome to our popular college football betting odds page. You can compare all the latest NCAAF odds from the market leading sportsbooks. Line histories and consensus reports are also included for each game to help you with your picks. You can also tailor the page to suit your preferences. Choose between American and decimal odds , point spreads, totals and money lines, and periods of the game. Below you will find information about choosing the best college football sportsbook and the different wagering options available to you.
If you are also interested in betting on other leagues, visit our College Basketball Odds , NFL Odds and Super Bowl Odds sites now. For all other betting odds please check out our Betting Odds page. For the best football bets check out the College Football Picks and NFL Picks pages.
Betting on collegiate football is an extremely popular pursuit among many Americans. Several sportsbooks therefore offer NCAA football lines and they will engage in creative marketing in an effort to win new customers. However, you need to remain vigilant , as many operators are untrustworthy, and they will delay or withhold payment for spurious reasons. Make sure you check out our list of the best online sportsbooks in the business, and choose one with an A+ or an A rating, such as Caesars or DraftKings.
This is a simple bet on the team that will win a particular game. Odds compilers at the top sportsbooks will calculate the probability of each team winning – factoring in head-to-head records, home advantage, injury concerns, and so on – and then assign odds accordingly. There is normally a favorite and an underdog, unless the teams are very evenly matched.
Let's say Virginia is playing Georgia Tech. You might see Virginia named the -500 favorite and Georgia Tech the +350 underdog in the NCAA football odds. A minus symbol informs you exactly how much money you need to lay down in order to make a $100 profit. In this case, you would need to wager $500 just to earn $100.
A plus symbol tells you how much profit you would earn from a $100 bet. In this example, you would win $350 by betting $100 on Georgia Tech. A $20 bet on Virginia would earn you $4 if successful, whereas a $20 bet on Georgia Tech would earn you $70 if successful. It tells you that the sportsbooks think Virginia has a much better chance of winning the game.
NCAA spreads are the most popular college football betting lines. The top sportsbooks give the stronger team a handicap in order to even things up. Sticking with the above example, you would expect to see Virginia as the 6.5-point favorite in the NCAA football point spreads. You could then bet on either Virginia -6.5 or Georgia Tech +6.5, and you would be likely to find odds of -110 on either outcome. Some books offer reduced juice on NCAAF, so you might find -105 either way.
If you bet on Virginia to cover the college football point spreads, they would need to win by 7 or more points . That is harder to achieve, but a $20 bet would earn you a profit of $18.20 rather than $4. If you bet on Georgia Tech to cover the NCAA football spreads, it could either win the game or lose by 6 or fewer points and your bet would pay off. It is easier to achieve that with a moneyline bet, but a $20 bet would yield a profit of $18.20 rather than $70.
Some other betting sites will offer alternative NCAA lines in order to skew the odds. If the Las Vegas college football odds and sportsbooks agree a consensus of a 6.5-point line on the game, you might see an alternative line of 8.5 points. You would then expect a larger profit by backing Virginia -8.5 and a smaller profit by betting on Georgia Tech +8.5. On the flipside, you might see a 4.5 point line, and then you would expect a larger potential profit by backing Georgia +4.5 in these NCAA betting lines.
This is a prediction on the cumulative points scored by both teams in a game. The sportsbooks will set a totals line when compiling NCAAF odds, and you simply have to guess whether the cumulative points will go over or stay under that line . It might be 42.5 points, and you will find CFB odds of -110 on under and -110 on over. You then decide if it is going to be a high-scoring contest
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College Football Betting Home Advantage Spread

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