Chinese iron ore and coal imports decrease in March

IMPORTS of iron ore into China fell by 6.7% in March 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier.

The world’s biggest iron ore market imported 93.97m tonnes last month, compared to more than 100m in March 2024.

Concerns surrounding Chinese steel demand have dominated dry bulk commentary for some time. But imports have continued to increase despite the disquiet, with 2024 seeing a record 1.2bn tonnes passing through Chinese ports.

So, do the March statistics show demand has finally caught up with volumes? Not exactly.

Howe Robinson head of dry bulk research Bilal Muftuoglu said bad weather in Brazil and Australia was more likely the culprit.

Australian iron ore exports to China were down around 3m tonnes on the year in February, he said, which coincided with a 1.5m tonne drop in exports from Brazil.

But Brazilian exports increased year on year in March 2025, while Australian exports caught up too, so any yearly decline in April should be much smaller.

“However, one other market that is contributing to this decline is India,” Muftuoglu told Lloyd’s List.

“Chinese iron ore imports from India were down a massive 7.3m tonnes on the year in January-February, and March was potentially down 1.5m tonnes on the year too.”

In a “pressured price environment”, Muftuoglu said Indian exports were hit first as they were “relatively low grade”, but high cost.

Iron ore futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell of a cliff following Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcements. While there has been a muted recovery, prices remain relatively low.

With Australia and Brazil now playing catch up, Muftuoglu said there wasn’t much room in the market for Indian ore.

Drewry dry director Rahul Sharan said he didn’t think Chinese iron ore demand had peaked just yet. Low imports were more likely because of noise around tariffs and recessionary fears, and he expected an increase as the year goes on.

Muftuoglu said the dry sector was yet to truly feel the effect of China’s faltering steel production, with some steel front-loaded to avoid tariffs and new markets sought.

“At the same time, US tariffs on Chinese goods will start hitting indirect steel demand (through Chinese machinery exports to the US) so we’re bound to see some drop in iron ore demand because of that too,” he told Lloyd’s List.

Three miners were active in the Pacific basin, the Baltic Exchange said in its daily dry report on April 16, “though this did little to lift sentiment”.

The short-lived recovery experienced by the capesize sector came to an end after just four days on April 14, as the Baltic’s C5TC index again dipped below the $15,000 per day mark.

The panamax P5TC index started a mini- recovery of its own last week, following a period of softening following the tariff announcements. The market remains “active”, the Baltic Exchange said, with sentiment “remaining positive” as the industry heads into the Easter public holidays.

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Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 18 April 2025