Chiefs Vs Raiders Point Spread

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Oct 11, 2020 at 10:00 am ET 2 min read
The top two teams in the AFC West collide when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The division-leading Chiefs (4-0) have won the AFC West title four straight seasons and can build a three-game lead just five weeks into the year with a victory on Sunday. They also are tied with Buffalo for the best record in the AFC. Meanwhile, the second-place Raiders (2-2) have lost back-to-back games to New England and Buffalo and haven't won the division since claiming three straight AFC West titles from 2000 to 2002.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 54.5. Before making any Raiders vs. Chiefs picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Raiders 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs:
Kansas City has a favorable matchup going against Las Vegas' defense. Through four games, the Raiders are allowing 30.0 points per game, and only eight teams are giving up more. This is just the fifth time in franchise history that the Raiders have allowed at least 120 points in the first four games of a season.
In addition, the Chiefs have dominated the series against Vegas recently. Kansas City has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, including the last five. The Chiefs' average margin of victory during the five-game winning streak is 19.8.
Quarterback Derek Carr is playing arguably the best football of his career. The seven-year veteran has completed 73.6 percent of his passes and has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception. His completion percentage and quarterback rating (113.6) would be the highest of his career.
In addition, Las Vegas has been one of the best teams on third down this season. Through four weeks the Raiders are converting 52.9 percent of their third downs. That ranks second in the league.
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it's calling for 58 total points. It has also generated an extremely strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 
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When the Chiefs (8-1) travel to take on the Raiders (6-3) in Las Vegas in the penultimate game of NFL Week 11 on "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), they will be looking for revenge for their only loss of the season: a 40-32 home loss in Week 5.
If the Chiefs win, they will take a three-game lead in the AFC West with six games left — an almost insurmountable division lead. The Raiders, with a series sweep, would tighten things up to two games with a head-to-head tiebreaker.
That Week 5 loss was Patrick Mahomes' worst as an NFL starting quarterback. Conversely, it was a big moment for counterpart Derek Carr.
Here's breaking down the rematch in prime time including betting information you need to know for the game:
The Chiefs opened as touchdown and extra-point favorites and went up to 8 points before the half-point adjustment late in the week. The Raiders play on "SNF" at home for the first time in Vegas, but they still won't have any fans to help them in a tough matchup.
The Chiefs lead 67-54-52 in their history against the Raiders, including playoffs, over their time in Oakland, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Before the upset in Week 5, the Chiefs had won five straight, 10 of 11 and 12 of 14.
— 67 percent of spread bettors like the Chiefs to cover after they failed to do so in the first meeting.
— 55 percent of over/under bettors like the game to go over the high point total with two talented offenses on the field and two sometimes very shaky defenses.
— The Chiefs have covered in three of their past five games and the total has gone over in three. The Raiders have covered in four of their past five games and the total has gone over in three.
Mahomes threw his only interception of the season against the Raiders in Week 5. It cost the Chiefs a chance of winning the game and a potentially perfect season. Mahomes has destroyed the defenses of the Jets and Panthers in consecutive games and will be laser-focused for another monster game.
Carr played very well in the first meeting, and he's having his best NFL season with a 107.4 passer rating at 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt, both career highs. He's super efficient playing off the running game and needs to hit on a few big pass plays to outduel Mahomes again.
The Raiders have the No. 13 run defense in the NFL. They also have the No. 25 pass defense in the NFL. Last time, they controlled the clock with the running game, finished with long touchdowns and limited Mahomes' chances. This time, the Chiefs could help out Mahomes by being more balanced with ball control of their own with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell.
18-3. That's Chiefs coach Andy Reid's regular-season record when his team comes off a bye week. Reid is good at making adjustments during the extra time off and is particularly motivated to get the better of Jon Gruden after the Raiders" "victory lap" around Arrowhead Stadium postgame in Week 5.
The Chiefs will play mistake-free football to match the Raiders' brand of it; this will come down to which quarterback makes more plays in second-half clutch situations. Mahomes will make up for the first game by letting it loose all over the field, while Carr's comeback attempt will fall short.
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