COMBATE Digest - combate-20260912-0000Z

🌍 WEST ASIA

UPDATE: Saudi Arabia Accuses Iraq of Pipeline Attack, Halts East-West Oil Line

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry officially accused Iraq of the drone attack on the East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, saying the strike was launched from Iraqi territory and that Riyadh refrained from retaliation at the Iraqi prime minister's request to give Baghdad time to act (irna_1313, parstodayrussian, sepah_pasdaran). The Saudi Energy Ministry confirmed the pipeline was attacked Thursday morning and that operations were halted as a precaution after damage (farsna, irna_1313). Iraq condemned the strikes, saying any aggression undermining the security, stability or "brotherly relations" of the two countries is rejected (irna_1313), and Iraq's premier dismissed the commander of military operations in Maysan province (farsna). US analyst Bret Erickson assessed that the pipeline was not merely hit but "completely crushed," calling the past 24 hours "nothing short of a full-blown catastrophe for global energy markets" (sepahcybery).

Iran Strikes "Violating Vessels" Near Hormuz; Baghaei Declares War Status

Cruise anti-ship missiles and drones were fired from southern Iran at "violating vessels" south of the Strait of Hormuz (sepah_pasdaran), and Mehr reported a US drone was hit by the IRGC Navy (mehrnews). Officials said a loud blast on Qeshm island was an air-defense test with no incident (mehrnews, farsna). Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Hormuz is "under the complete authority of Iran's armed forces," that the US violated the Islamabad understanding after 23 days, and that Iran and Oman will jointly present the consultations' results (mehrnews, sepah_pasdaran). He announced Monday's Oman meeting now includes Iraq and the Persian Gulf coastal states to discuss secure commercial navigation (farsna, meo_verified, tass_rss). Baghaei declared "we are not in a neither-war-nor-peace situation; we are at war," citing UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 to argue sanctions and naval blockade constitute aggression and Iran's response is defense (farsna, mehrnews). He warned Saudi Arabia, Japan and Jordan "will see the consequences" of their IAEA votes (farsna, mehrnews) and said Gulf states must answer for damage from US attacks launched from their soil (farsna, sepah_pasdaran). Reuters reported supertanker freight rates hit a record ~450 Worldscale points — about $11.5 per barrel — the highest since the index launched (sepah_pasdaran).

Yemen: Bab al-Mandeb Seen in Israel as Bigger Threat Than Hormuz

An Israeli official told Channel 12 that Ansar Allah's control of Bab al-Mandeb poses a greater threat to shipping than Hormuz because the eastern channel past Perim (Mayyun) island is only about three kilometers wide, leaving vessels in direct visual range: "They will be able to fire at whatever they want with anti-tank missiles" (tabzlive, mintpress_news). A Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council official told the Washington Post the offensive appeared prepared for months and closely directed by Iranian personnel on the ground, saying "This is the first day that Iran really started winning the war" (tabzlive). Yemeni forces said they took four airstrips in 24 hours — Mayyun island, Zuqar island, Mokha port and Dhubab (mehrnews) — and footage circulated of armed fighters overlooking the strait (rt_spanish_rss). A military source said Yemeni forces struck Saudi-aligned mercenaries in Al-Jawf province, burning dozens of military vehicles (mehrnews, farsna). Yemen's health ministry said Saudi attacks since September 3 have killed or wounded 82 civilians (mehrnews). The Saudi-backed government claimed new airstrikes on southwest Yemen and positions northwest of Marib (irna_1313). Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref welcomed "the victories of the heroic Yemeni people" (meo_verified).

Bessent Boasts of "Suffocating" Iran as WSJ Sees War to 2029

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iranians are trying to create US economic problems through X accounts, bond yields and oil prices, accusing Bloomberg, the FT and WSJ of "Trump derangement syndrome" for giving Tehran a platform (tabzlive, farsna). On missile production he claimed "We've destroyed 85% of their factories" (tabzlive), and on the blockade: "Every day we average about 10 million barrels going out in the southern Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians get out zero... the score is 140 billion to zero... They're comical to me" (tabzlive). Araghchi responded that Bessent "stands powerless and exposed as the world loses belief in the U.S. financial system," adding "Meltdown over cost of funding U.S. debt is only the beginning" (tabzlive, mehrnews). The WSJ reported Vance, Rubio and other senior officials signaled to Trump that Tehran can keep resisting economic and military pressure, potentially prolonging hostilities past January 2029 (lantidiplomatico). Al-Mayadeen, citing a senior Iranian security and political official, reported Trump is working to return to negotiations despite his rhetoric (mehrnews). AP assessed the US has partially weakened Iran's Hormuz control and cut its oil exports to roughly 255,000 bpd in August from 1.85 million in spring, citing Kpler data (mehrnews). The FT criticized the "blind amateurism" of Kushner and Witkoff, whose bet on postwar economic incentives has stalled US diplomacy on Ukraine, Gaza and Iran; the two visited Kiev after Moscow (sepahcybery).

Tech Front: Anthropic Blocks Iran-Linked AI Operations; Dive-LD Drone Seized

Anthropic said it blocked an Iran-linked "malicious actor" that used Claude to collect and analyze open data — ship and aircraft transponders, military photos and commercial satellite imagery — to target US naval vessels in the region (rt_french_rss, tabzlive, farsna). A separate Anthropic report described a cell based in northern Yemen using Claude to develop a guided rocket with a smartphone-type flight computer, a ballistic missile and a "hypersonic glider type" vehicle (rt_french_rss). TASS reported Iran has a US Dive-LD underwater drone in hand and can reverse-engineer it, noting Washington had not previously treated Iranian seizures of US drones with such nonchalance (tass_rss, mintpress_news). After Iranian strikes hit US-linked tech infrastructure, the UAE is redesigning its planned 5-GW, 26-square-km AI complex in Abu Dhabi — first phase branded "Stargate UAE" with $30 billion investment — dispersing it into smaller data centers and considering underground sites in mountains (farsna, rtde_live_rss).

Lebanon, Syria Briefs

The Israel-Lebanon negotiation round set for Rome next week was postponed; instead the two countries' ambassadors will meet at the State Department in Washington to discuss recent developments and continuing implementation of the framework agreement, a senior US official said (Hidcunim_news). Israeli warplanes again bombed Nabatiyta al-Fawqa (mehrnews) and struck the Ali al-Taher heights, the outskirts of Qantara and Wadi Zibqin (irna_1313). IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, visiting the 36th Division deployed in Lebanon, said: "We will not withdraw from Lebanon; we will remain in the security zone" (irna_1313). Israeli forces also shelled areas around Damascus and western Daraa (mehrnews), and an explosion was heard northwest of Damascus near Al-Dumayr (mehrnews). Hamas officially confirmed the killing of Khan Younis brigade commander Muhammad Yazouri (farsna).

🌍 NORTH AMERICA

White House Weighs Defense Production Act to Expand Refining

Reuters reported the White House is considering using the Defense Production Act to expand US oil-refining capacity as the war exposes vulnerabilities to global supply disruptions, favoring upgrades of existing refineries — already running at roughly 98% of capacity — over new construction that would take years (tabzlive, irna_1313). Ten-year Treasury yields approached the psychologically important 5% mark as oil prices, inflation worries and rate expectations raised US recession risks (rtde_live_rss). Mexico's President Sheinbaum said drones detected at the US border are commercial devices used to film and detect patrols, not weapons, and Defense Secretary Trevilla denied any increase in drone operations, countering Pentagon claims (yt_lajornada2023).

🌍 EUROPE

Germany: AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt With 43.8%; Seven Charged Over Hamas

The AfD scored a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8% of the vote while Chancellor Merz's conservatives suffered a sharp setback, pressuring the strategy of keeping the party out of any governing coalition (yt_france24es). German federal prosecutors charged seven people with Hamas membership and preparing an attack, including weapons procurement, with the domestic intelligence agency claiming the case shows efforts to build underground logistics networks in Germany (irna_1313). Bild reported the cutoff of Russian gas has cost Germany more than €50 billion, with roughly €600 spent per citizen to mitigate the consequences (two_majors). During the UAE president's first state visit to Berlin, Abu Dhabi announced plans to invest €40 billion in Germany — including data centers with total capacity of 1 GW — with 29 agreements worth about €9.4 billion signed (1087968996).

UPDATE: Medvedev Says Lithuania "Will Disappear From the Map" Over Nuclear Plans

Medvedev warned that a country lifting its constitutional ban on deploying nuclear weapons would "disappear from the map" (rt_spanish_rss). Lukashenko said Belarus plans to attack no one but announced an army inspection and combat-readiness checks, saying Minsk "prepares for war so that it doesn't happen" (rtde_live_rss). Dmitriev said EU natural gas prices are 12.2 times US levels and will keep rising (sputnikserbia_rss). MI5 chief Ken McCallum again named Iran, Russia and China as threats to UK security (irna_1313). Russia-Ukraine mutual strikes continued: a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Tula region killed two, and Russian strikes on Kyiv gas stations killed two (irna_1313).

🌍 EAST ASIA

BRICS Business Forum: Putin Contrasts Bloc's 40% GDP Share With G7's 29%

Putin told the BRICS Business Forum in New Delhi that BRICS members generated more than 40% of global GDP over the past five years against the G7's 29% — "I don't know why they call that coalition great!" — and said the West is trying to reclaim its former leadership using "any tool necessary" (farsna, rtde_live_rss, irna_1313). He warned that any EU-UK deployment of troops to Ukrainian territory would mean direct war with Russia (sputnikserbia_rss), and aide Ushakov said Ukraine was discussed in Putin's second meeting with Modi in two weeks (sputnikserbia_rss). Pezeshkian told the forum BRICS must not be a mere consumer of technology and that Iran's geography and energy resources make it ready to serve as a key link in the bloc's economic connectivity (presstv); Modi, meeting Pezeshkian, stressed the need to intensify Middle East peace efforts (sputnikbrasil_rss). Putin also met Ramaphosa, with the third Russia-Africa summit set for October 28-29 in Moscow (sputnikserbia_rss); Sisi, who called Sudan's security and unity "a red line" (sputnikarabic_rss); Malaysian PM Anwar; and NDB head Dilma Rousseff (tass_rss). Russia and Iran confirmed continued strengthening of their strategic partnership (sputnikindia_rss, meo_verified).

🌍 AFRICA

Algeria Cuts Diplomatic Relations With the UAE

Algeria severed diplomatic ties with the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of a destabilizing policy in North Africa and the Sahel, in a rupture rooted in deep disputes over Israel, Western Sahara and growing Emirati influence in the region (rtde_live_rss).

Sudan and Region Briefs

The UN Security Council unanimously extended the Sudan sanctions regime, including the arms embargo, for one month until October 9 (irna_1313). A report said a dossier of evidence alleging chemical weapons use by Sudan's army was compiled by Israeli intelligence and shared with Western media in a coordinated operation to discredit the military and bolster its paramilitary rival (presstv). Niger's oil minister cited a prospective study showing 2.5 billion barrels of potential in the northern Kafra block, pending confirmation by drilling (rt_french_rss).

🌍 SOUTH AMERICA

Colombia Ends Dialogues With ELN and Armed Groups

President De la Espriella declared "the false peace is over" and terminated all dialogue processes with the ELN and other armed groups, citing no progress on peace, disarmament or submission to justice (sputnikbrasil_rss, sputnikmundo_rss).

Venezuela Signs Strategic Agreements With Suriname

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and President Geerlings-Simons signed strategic accords in Paramaribo, including Venezuelan technical training in oil and gas production via INTEVEP and the Venezuelan University of Hydrocarbons, and a fishing agreement granting licenses to 200 Venezuelan vessels (yt_telesurenglish, yt_telesurenglish, yt_lubrio).

Regional Briefs

Brazil's Datafolha poll put Lula at 46% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 44% in a runoff — a technical tie (sputnikbrasil_rss), as Justice Mendonça lifted secrecy on investigations involving Bolsonaro, Ciro Nogueira, Cláudio Castro and Jaques Wagner (sputnikbrasil_rss). Chile's government held no ceremony marking the 1973 coup for the first time since democracy's return, with President Kast saying the country is "looking toward the future" (informador_global). Bolivia's Viacha barracks explosion, which caused nearly a dozen deaths, deepened tensions between President Paz and Vice President Lara (sputnikmundo_rss).

💬 NOTABLE QUOTES

"Every day we average about 10 million barrels going out in the southern Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians get out zero... Over a two-week period, the score is 140 billion to zero... They're comical to me." — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary (tabzlive)

"The U.S. Treasury Secretary has been gleefully boasting about wanting to impoverish Iranians and collapse our economy. Instead, he stands powerless and exposed as the world loses belief in the U.S. financial system." — Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister (tabzlive)

"This is the first day that Iran really started winning the war." — Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council official, to the Washington Post (tabzlive)

"We are not in a situation of neither war nor peace; we are in a situation of war — sanctions and economic siege are war against Iran." — Esmaeil Baghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman (farsna)

"We will not withdraw from Lebanon; we will remain in the security zone." — Eyal Zamir, Israeli IDF Chief of Staff (irna_1313)

"More than 40% of global GDP over the past five years belonged to BRICS members, while the so-called G7's share was 29% — I don't know why they call that coalition great!" — Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, at the BRICS Business Forum (farsna)