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Buy blow Libya

Michael Young of Diwan interviewed him in early January to get his perspective on the Libya situation, options open for the Libyan Government of National Accord, and the motives of the main outside actors involved in the Libyan conflict. In western Libya, Ankara began supporting militarily proponents of political Islam and also revolutionary actors, including primarily those of Misrata, in the second half of For example, in January Greece intercepted the Tanzanian-flagged ship Andromeda loaded with 29 containers full of explosives and detonators while it was traveling from Turkey to Misrata. All this is to say that Ankara, on a clandestine basis, has been propping up anti-Haftar groups militarily for over half a decade. In fact it was more than a revival. Between May and October , Turkey sent a total of 20 combat drones into Tripolitania, along with approximately 60 Turkish officers to operate them. JH: Turkey has supported the anti-Haftar factions in Tripolitania for three principal reasons—commerce, maritime issues, and ideology. Before already, as many as 25 percent of the Turkish citizens expatriated in the Arab world were living and working in Libya. This represents an enormous volume of construction, infrastructure, and service business that would likely never be implemented and paid for if Haftar were to topple the GNA and take power. Indeed, the exclusionary vision of the Haftar faction and its Emirati sponsors means that Turkey would be shunned as a trading and business partner. On the maritime front, a Turkish motive for involvement in Libya relates to the territorial waters in the eastern Mediterranean. Because Greece has about 3, islands in the Aegean Sea, international sea conventions cannot possibly apply there. As a result, Turkey and Greece must work out an arrangement not in line with standard conventions. In this context, Ankara is deeply interested in resuming its longstanding, unresolved talks with Greece. Ankara also wants to defend its own interpretation of territorial waters conventions. Apart from the Aegean, you also have the disputes associated with the territorial waters surrounding Cyprus—a divided country whose Turkish-controlled north was invaded by Turkey in and which is recognized by Ankara as an independent state. Very large amounts of natural gas have been discovered across the eastern half of the Mediterranean over the last seven years or so. This has engendered a much higher level of solidarity among Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece, as well as France and to some extent Italy—all united against Turkey. Within this context, Ankara feels it must try and ensure the survival of the GNA in Tripoli, the only Turkish-friendly government in the area from a maritime perspective. All this explains why Ankara has insisted since October on the GNA signing an exclusive economic zone deal, creating a sea corridor between western Turkey and eastern Libya. By late November , the GNA, facing military pressures, had become desperate and caved in to Turkish demands that it sign a maritime accord. In return, Ankara resumed providing Misrata and Tripoli with weapons and other military aid. Moderate political Islam wielding some degree of power in a wealthy North African country represents an important symbol. There is no question that the GNA is profoundly flawed and corrupt. Yet, it is a pluralistic arrangement in which Muslim Brothers and non-Islamist politicians coexist. Their regimes prefer a strict form of dictatorship. That is deemed intolerable to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, because it threatens his preferred governance style. Abu Dhabi has every intention of preventing such a scenario. He did so mainly by providing Turkey with oil during a period when Turkey could not trust Iran, Saudi Arabia, or, of course, the Soviet Union. Today, the dynamics are somewhat similar. Right now Turkey happens to be purchasing very little oil from Libya. If it does manage to carve up a piece of western Libya and somehow ensure the survival of a Turkish-friendly government there, Turkey will be very likely to import more crude oil from Libya in the years ahead. MY: What is the best-case scenario for Sarraj as the Libyan situation becomes more complex and dangerous? The Russians have been involved in the Libyan civil war since , but thus far have invested relatively little in it. Yet, Moscow does wield some influence from a military perspective. The powers-that-be in Moscow are acutely aware of this weakness. The Russians may very well decide to increase their support for Haftar by sending additional mercenaries and other means. MY: How likely is the tension in Libya to turn into a regional proxy war, or even a regional war? JH: The regional proxy war is already taking place. On top of these proxy dynamics, foreign states have been intervening directly in Libya. Indeed, both U. Most Western capitals are afraid of alienating an Arab Sunni state that is disciplined, militarized, dynamic, and willing to spend money. That blind spot has effected the way media outlets have covered the war for Tripoli since April , and is the main reason why we have this illusion that the proxy war is beginning only now that Turkey has become more vocal. Should one expect a direct war between regional or global powers in Libya? Libyans will do most of the dying, not the foreign meddlers. Yet, a country like Tunisia could end up being seriously destabilized this year. Main navigation Topics Image. All topics. About us. Stay updated. Breadcrumb Home Into the Libya Vortex. By Jalel Harchaoui. Michael Young: What is the main reason for why the government of Fayez al-Sarraj has built up a military alliance with Turkey? MY: What have been the Turkish motivations for doing so? MY: How does the third motivation you mentioned, ideology, come into play? Related See all.

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