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Jordan looking to weather new challenges

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Risks from Middle Eastern conflicts, Tehran and the scourge of drug trafficking have put Amman on alert. The Jordanian monarchy endures as an island of stability at the epicenter of an unstable and unpredictable Middle East by making sure opposites can coexist. Through its efforts, the diversity of its Arab, Palestinian, Bedouin and Circassian populations, as well as tribal leaders, have lived in relative harmony under the monarchy. On the international stage, Amman has struck the most unlikely of balances, maintaining contact with Israel despite well-known antagonisms between the two states and despite Palestinian refugees living in Jordan even after the dark hours of Black September in And in this spirit of balance, King Abdullah II agreed to host 1. As a guarantor of regional stability, Jordanian authorities are concerned about the growing illicit drug economy flourishing in Syria , as it has the potential to lead to crime and decay throughout the region. Jordanian security services are working along the kilometer border with Syria to prevent traffickers from moving drugs into and through the kingdom. Drug trafficking is a real threat. In February , the Jordanian Public Security Directorate announced the arrest of 23 drug traffickers, as well as the seizure of weapons and a large quantity of narcotics. This type of operation has become commonplace in Jordan, which is facing an influx of Captagon, ecstasy, fentanyl, crystal meth, tramadol, hashish and more. Some of these drugs are used by Islamic militants to bolster their courage ahead of jihadist strikes, and affluent youth in Gulf states are turning to recreational drug use. In the space of five years, trafficking has undergone a transformation , advancing from small-scale production to industrial sites capable of exporting entire shipping containers full of pills. Although figures are scarce and difficult to verify, a reported million tablets marketed under the brand name Captagon were seized at the Syrian-Jordanian border in The Jordanian army has increased its countermeasures and now conducts military operations against traffickers, including air strikes and the destruction of production sites and laboratories. The rules of engagement have changed in response to the presence of armed groups protecting the traffickers and due to the increasingly widespread prevalence of mind-altering substances in the Middle East. Sitting at the crossroads of the Levant and the Persian Gulf, Jordan lies on the route between production in Syria, and Saudi Arabia and Iraq, through which the illegal goods are re-exported. Riyadh is aware of the security implications and has stepped up border surveillance to avoid becoming a new hub for illicit drugs. At the Middle East Global Summit in New York in September , he expressed his concern that Damascus does not control all of its territory and that the Syrian administration is corrupt. The kingdom works with a wide range of security partners and routinely hosts joint military exercises on Jordanian soil to ensure security readiness. On the domestic front, its main concern is corruption. Drug trafficking is an accelerator pumping dirty money into the underground black market and indirectly into the state administration. The Jordanian Minister of the Interior, Ayman al-Faraya , has taken up the issue, mobilizing his services and creating a liaison unit with Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. Amman fears a massive influx of refugees due to the war in Gaza. In addition to the 1. Jordan aims to protect itself from Hamas, which might be tempted to turn its military defeat at the hands of Israel into a political victory by attempting to rebuild an armed force outside Gaza to continue the fight. For example, Khaled Meshaal, a Palestinian politician and former leader of Hamas, issued a message in October calling on tribes within Jordan to support the Hamas cause. Several tribal leaders, including of the Bani Sakhr, said they approved of the move to link the fates of Jordanians and Palestinians. Jordan aims to protect itself from Hamas, which might be attempting to rebuild an armed force outside Gaza to continue the fight. The aim is preventing confusion to guarantee security on Jordanian territory. Another area of concern is the regional impact of intensifying Iranian meddling. So far, regional crises, as numerous as they have been, have very rarely affected the territorial sovereignty of the Hashemite Kingdom. However, the situation has become more tense since the Jordanian territory came under attack earlier this year. Three soldiers were killed. The incident was carried out by non-state actors from outside Jordan, in this case by a group linked to Iran. Pro-Iranian militias have used Jordanian airspace to target Israel on three occasions, according to Marie Maher , a researcher at the Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies. In mid-March, a drone mysteriously crashed near the northern city of Irbid without anyone knowing where it came from. Jordanian forces now regularly seize automatic weapons, assault rifles, landmines, explosives and anti-tank missiles of foreign origin. One way to understand this trend is that Tehran is working to slowly destabilize Jordan. No doubt all these issues drugs, Hamas and the threat of pro-Iranian militias were discussed with President Joe Biden. Cooperation between the two countries remains solid. As part of its outreach, the Hashemite Kingdom diplomatically engages the European Union, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as the Vatican and Asian powers to remain the regional exception: the country that withstands Middle Eastern geopolitical storms. The future of Jordan is likely one of continued stability despite the challenges, while the intensity and duration of regional conflict will influence the options available to the kingdom. Through proactive steps to engage stakeholders at home and abroad, Amman is able to ward off economic deterioration and the growing burden of refugee camps. The Jordanian security forces are containing border incidents: insecurity caused by pro-Iranian militias, drone incursions and attempts by smugglers to infiltrate the country. Amman manages to weather the current difficult period thanks to continued American and European support. The EU supports Amman through investments and support packages to the country. The key takeaway is that, barring Iran, external actors seek Jordanian stability. Second, on the political level, Islamist parties, especially the Islamic Action Front, are trying to capitalize on social anger by constantly denouncing the presence of American bases on Jordanian soil. The challenge for the authorities here is to mount a political campaign that will limit the growing radical Islamist vote in the September parliamentary elections. So far, the Islamist vote has never won more than 20 seats in the lower house of parliament , which has seats total. Given the context, it is foreseeable that there will be an increase in the Islamist vote overall, but well short of a tidal wave. For industry-specific scenarios and bespoke geopolitical intelligence, contact us and we will provide you with more information about our advisory services. Information about what personal data we collect about you and how we process it including information about how we personalize our website for you and deliver content tailored to you can be found in our privacy policy. Skip to content. A drone linked to Iran landed in Irbid in northwestern Jordan, while the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, backed by Iran, attacked an American air base in the northeastern corner of the country. Refugees have come from Syria and refugee risks emanate from Gaza. Sign up for our newsletter Receive insights from our experts every week in your inbox. In a nutshell. Federica Saini Fasanotti. Stefan Hedlund. Ralph Mathekga. Fidel Amakye Owusu. Adinda Khaerani Epstein. Junhua Zhang. John Polga-Hecimovich.

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