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And we are complicit in this violence and mayhem. W hat happened in Ecuador a few weeks ago, when the country descended into gang violence and TV journalists were seen by millions cowering in front of people pointing high-powered weapons at their heads, was described in many ways. It had never happened in this form, on this scale, anywhere else. It was not comparable to the uprisings that came before. The only goals of the drug-trafficking cartels are to force political and economic power to negotiate, to obtain impunity, to have room for manoeuvre to defend their own affairs and, ultimately, to remind politicians of any orientation that their legitimation is possible only by consent of the cartels. There were at least 75 deaths , but it was a momentary insurgency of the ghettoes ruled by Dudus. All of these incidents have one element in common: when governments disadvantage the interests of criminal groups or favour the extradition of bosses, the cartels intervene with the same methods that they would use if they were facing criminal rivals — as equals. The drug coup has one strategy — to generate chaos, violence, fear and terror — and the approach is simple: shoot anyone, litter the streets with bombs, make the prisons riot, make ordinary life impossible. There is no military direction, the tools are basic. Every trafficker can draw inspiration from what they see other members doing on social networks; it is therefore impossible to break the chain of command. Fito escaped from prison in Guayaquil but no one noticed until 7 January, just before he was due to be transferred to a high-security prison. When the Ecuadorian president, Daniel Noboa, learned of the escape, he declared a state of emergency for 60 days. That decision led to the insurrection. It is easy to understand why: a state of emergency means a halt to the activities of the cartel, with millions of dollars lost every day, and this may well have prompted someone to betray Fito — by killing him or handing him over to the police — to be able to resume business. These are the rules of mafia capitalism: loyalty only to the power that allows you to do business. Fito would have ordered the insurrection to save himself. They hoped to find a new hub for the shipment of coca to North America, and especially to Europe and Asia, but there was another reason. A large proportion of the coca departed from Venezuela, a failed state with a criminal cartel completely allied to the military, the Cartel de los Soles Cartel of the Suns , which through managing the transportation of coca drives up the price. To end that control, from the Sinaloa cartel started talking with a small criminal group in Ecuador: Los Choneros. That first conversation involved 10 people. Los Choneros fulfilled that task, so Sinaloa gave it an additional duty: to refine the coca that passes from Colombia to Ecuador. Then the big task: after storage and refining came shipment, as Los Choneros managed to gain control of the ports. Two incidents in recent years tell us much about the centrality of Ecuador in the drug trade: a shipment seized in heading for Georgia , and another shipment seized in May by authorities in Armenia. Ecuadorian or Mexican drug trafficking has started to fill eastern Europe with coca, capitalising on the scarcity of port controls after Covid and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. So how did the government of Ecuador react to the drug coup? Exactly as the cartel expected: with an escalation of violence. But this will not resolve things: Los Choneros has priced in the carnage in its ranks, but it knows that the government will have to negotiate sooner or later. The violence is ingrained. In August, Fernando Villavicencio, the most significant rival of the current president, was killed , with the Ecuadorian cartels thought to be responsible. Of these, Villavicencio is interesting because he wanted to strengthen relations with Britain. More than 18 tonnes of cocaine were seized in England and Wales in the year ending March , much of which — according to the National Crime Agency — was handled by the Albanian cartels who source their supplies in Ecuador. In fact, the base of one of the most organised groups of the Albanian mafia, Kompania Bello , was moved to Ecuador. An exodus of drug traffickers from every part of the world to the coast of Ecuador is due to the increase in cocaine production. This figure has not stopped growing. Ecuador seized world headlines on the day the TV studios were invaded but the world has moved on — not least because in the comfort of Europe, we have afforded ourselves the luxury of ignoring these killings, and even more so to the growing demand for cocaine coming from every corner of the world. That demand comes from our place of comfort. We have been unable, perhaps unwilling, to truly analyse what is occurring. As a result, we have allowed the criminal cartels to eat western democracies from the inside. What is happening in Ecuador is a story that concerns everyone, because drug use is not an exception now but the norm. Last year, an international study found that British people have become the second-biggest cocaine users in the world. And it is not just a moral issue, because drug trafficking and mafias mean doped markets, businesses with unfair competition, corruption and manipulation of public consensus, and, ultimately, the destruction of democratic rules of government. The absence of serious reflection on drug addiction and consumption, of meaningful discussion on drug legalisation, leads exactly to what is happening in Mexico and Ecuador. Pay attention to the violent scenes on the streets of Ecuador and you will understand what mafias are capable of. We have two paths ahead of us: we either deal seriously with drug trafficking, or drug trafficking will continue, by military means, to occupy democracy — or what remains of it. Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Plainclothes police arrest suspects in Guayaquil, Ecuador, amid surging gang violence in the South American country. This article is more than 8 months old. Roberto Saviano. View image in fullscreen. Read more. Reuse this content. Most viewed.

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Both have offered sketches of their proposals to fight the spiraling violence in the country. But there is one macroeconomic trend they are helpless against: cocaine. Ecuador is a transit country, and most of the cocaine moving through it comes from Colombia. How much is the subject of widespread speculation, but in , Ecuadorian authorities told InSight Crime that over one-third of the cocaine produced in Colombia traverses Ecuador. Others, including US authorities, told us that the amount was significantly higher. But, if we use one-third as a baseline, we can provide a rough understanding of how much cocaine is going through Ecuador, how much this amount has risen in recent years, and how this increase coincided with rising homicides. If one-third of that traversed Ecuador, then the country received tons of cocaine. Production areas along the border with Ecuador also saw increases in the production of coca, the raw material used to manufacture cocaine. During the same period there was also a marked increase in cocaine seizures in Ecuador, as well as seizures of shipments out of the country. Seizures in other markets confirm these trends. Increased cocaine flows through Ecuador seem to have raised the stakes considerably for criminal groups. Different traffickers are known to calculate their costs in different ways. In other transit countries, we have seen groups that charge based on the change in price between when they receive the drug and when it leaves their hands. For a while, at least, Ecuadorian groups seemed to charge considerably less. Today, there are more sophisticated criminal groups in Ecuador who likely charge significantly more. And from our recent field trips to Ecuador, we can say the market is broken into three major groups. The third group does logistics for drug trafficking groups who fly their aircraft into Ecuador on their way to traffic the drug elsewhere. The increase in cocaine production and proceeds coincided with a startling rise in homicides in Ecuador, from 6 per , in , to 25 per , in According to Ecuadorian government data , in , Esmeraldas had 74 homicides; in , it registered , giving it a homicide rate of 81 per , There, homicides rose from in to 2, in , giving it a homicide rate of 46 per , These calculations are obviously crude and do not take into consideration numerous other factors, including local drug markets. However, the correlation between cocaine and homicides seems clear, at least from this preliminary glance. To their credit, they have both offered nuanced and less militaristic options than some of their political counterparts in Ecuador and beyond. But if these macroeconomic trends continue, they may be facing extreme violence for some time to come. In , Dudley More by Steven Dudley. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive a weekly digest of the latest organized crime news and stay up-to-date on major events, trends, and criminal dynamics from across the region. Donate today to empower research and analysis about organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean, from the ground up. Skip to content. Burgeoning Cocaine Production Ecuador is a transit country, and most of the cocaine moving through it comes from Colombia. Steven Dudley. Stay Informed With InSight Crime Subscribe to our newsletter to receive a weekly digest of the latest organized crime news and stay up-to-date on major events, trends, and criminal dynamics from across the region.

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