Brazilian 2022

Brazilian 2022

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Brazil’s October Elections Will Be the Biggest Test of Its Democracy Yet

A flag is sold of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Brazil's Independence Day Celebration in Copacabana on Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Bolsonaro used Brazil's Independence Day Celebration to rally voters ahead of the Oct. 2nd presidential elections.
Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times—Getty Images)

By

Sanya Mansoor

Brazilian presidential candidate and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaks during an election rally about sustainable development in Manaus, Brazil, on August 31, 2022.
A customer counts money at a fruit and vegetables stall in a market in Salvador, Bahia State, Brazil, on August 26, 2022
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B razil heads to the polls on Oct. 2 for crucial general elections in Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country that will determine the next President, Vice President, and National Congress. The key question on everyone’s minds is whether the right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro will get another term, or whether the left-wing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will return to office as part of a resurgent pink tide in the region that has recently seen leftists take power in Colombia, Argentina, Mexico , and elsewhere.
The choice between the two men could not be more stark.
Over the last four years, incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro has questioned the role of the Supreme Court and repeatedly suggested without evidence that the electoral system is rigged . He has compared COVID-19 to “ a little flu ,” and approved destructive environmental policies that have devastated the Amazon rainforest .
Lula ruled from 2003 to 2010 after winning two four-year terms in office and helped lift millions out of poverty, making him one of the country’s most popular leaders. “Lula is running on nostalgia to win his old job back,” says Gustavo Ribeiro, journalist and founder of English-language politics site The Brazilian Report.
However, Lula is also controversial but in different ways. In September 2016, he was slapped with corruption charges that originated from a money laundering investigation known as Operation Car Wash , which set out to root out corruption among high-ranking Latin American political and business leaders . In July 2017, he was found guilty and a court ruled he was not allowed to run for reelection in 2018. But in March of last year, Brazil’s Supreme Court overturned the conviction , citing some technicalities and saying Lula’s right to a fair trial had been compromised by a biased judge—allowing him to run for President this time around.
Lula has held up the Supreme Court’s verdict as proof of his innocence: he argues that the corruption charges were cooked up by right-wing forces to keep him out. But recent surveys have found that public opinion is split.
Either way, polls suggest Lula will comfortably defeat Bolsonaro, although it’s unclear whether he will have enough votes to avoid a run-off on Oct. 30. In Brazil, if no presidential candidate gets more than 50% of the total vote, it triggers a head-to-head competition between the two frontrunners, almost certainly this year Bolsonaro and Lula.
“Bolsonaro has eroded accountability institutions, he is rotting the state from within,” Ribeiro says. Bolsonaro did, however, make a rare admission Monday on a podcast that he would step down if defeated . “If that is God’s will I will continue, but if it is not, I will pass the presidential sash and retire.”
That rhetoric has not quelled concerns that the transition of power if Bolsonaro loses may not go smoothly, although experts say it’s unlikely he has the power to overturn the election. “I don’t think he has the institutional support to pull that off,” Ribeiro says. But even an attempt to suggest he was wronged could help him retain considerable influence in Brazil. “Everybody thinks Bolsonaro might try a January 6 in Brazil if he loses. We are not so sure… if this will be a coup d’etat. I don’t think so but it could just be a way of leaving power but still keeping his people with him,” says Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian journalist and political analyst.
Fueling some of these fears is Bolsonaro’s call last September for tens of thousands of his supporters to protest against the court after his dispute with the judiciary over changes to the voting system that involved the President’s attempts to push for paper voting receipts. Brazilian and international media compared the incident to the Jan. 6 insurrection at Capitol Hill. While some may point to Bolsonaro as taking a page out of U.S. President Donald Trump’s playbook, it may well be the other way around, according to Ribeiro. “Bolsonaro attacked the system way before Trump became President… He has threatened time and again not to recognize the results if he doesn’t believe they are fair and square.”
Civil rights advocates fear a second Bolsonaro term could lead to a democratic backsliding, or worse.
There are concerns the pace of the Amazon’s deforestation could reach a tipping point where it turns into a dry savanna under a second Bolsonaro term. That would in turn accelerate global climate change; the Amazon has long functioned as a sink for draining carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and absorbs about 2 billion tons of CO2 per year (or 5% of emissions) . Data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research showed that more than 3,980 square kilometers were deforested in the first six months of this year, the highest amount since 2016.
Under Bolsonaro, laws around deforestation have been loosened and environmental agencies have seen staffing and budget cuts. “There has been very little monitoring or fining or attempt to regulate deforestation,” says Amy Erica Smith, an associate professor of political science and expert on Brazilian politics at Iowa State University. What’s more, Ribeiro says: “Bolsonaro incentivizes the use of Indigenous lands, environmental protection areas for mining, for cattle ranching.”
Bolsonaro has also been criticized for his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, and spreading misinformation about the virus and vaccines. Brazil has over 685,000 recorded COVID deaths, which is one of the highest death tolls globally.
Although Bolsonaro has triggered concerns about Brazil’s democracy, it’s unlikely this will be on the mind of the average Brazilian voter, experts say. More than one third of Brazilian families are dealing with food insecurity, according to a study published in May by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), a Brazilian academic institution.
“People are really struggling,” Ribeiro says. “That’s why Bolsonaro has broken the bank to increase social spending.”
Bolsonaro has cut fuel taxes to reduce prices after they shot up in part because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. He increased aid payments to the countries’ poorest through a program called Auxilio Brasil, or Brazil Aid; in August, he started giving out $120 monthly cash payments to 20 million families . Inflation has not been as big a problem in Brazil as in the U.S. and Europe either, because of lower energy prices. But wages are still shrinking and unemployment is still high, though decreasing.
Bolsonaro is also particularly popular among evangelical Christians, who make up almost one-third of the country’s population, according to the Datafolha polling firm. (In 2018, about 70% of these voters backed Bolsonaro .) “There are enough evangelicals that they could really matter,” Smith says.
“Bolsonaro is the first candidate that really embraced them,” Traumann says. He gave them key ministerial positions as well as appointed a Supreme Court judge who was evangelical. Lula, on the other hand, faced pushback from many evangelicals following remarks he made earlier this yea r that abortion should be viewed as a public health issue, instead of a religious one. Bolsonaro has repeatedly stressed his commitment to ensure most abortions remain illegal in Brazil.
That’s not to say all evangelicals vote in a bloc. Some female voters in particular may be put off by what experts say is Bolsonaro’s misogyny. Smith doubts evangelicals will come out as strongly as they did for Bolsonaro in 2018 because “they will be evaluating him not only on culture war issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights but also his performance on the economy and pandemic,” she says.
But if polls are correct, and Lula prevails either on Oct. 2 or Oct. 30, Brazilians—and much of the world—will be tuning in to see what comes next.
Write to Sanya Mansoor at sanya.mansoor@time.com .

Home > Blog > Brazil in 2022 – An Overview of the Market

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2021 was a challenging year for the Brazilian economy, but what can we expect in 2022? Due to the rise in agricultural production, and a drop in the fuel price, inflation is set to decrease. From an international standpoint, the Federal Reserve in the US predicts interest rates to rise in 2022, which will affect the economy worldwide.
Despite the scenario of uncertainty, not only in Brazil but for most countries in the world, due to the ripple effects of COVID-19’s economic impact, the question is: is it still worth investing in Brazil? The short answer is yes. But for a complete explanation, let’s look at the most significant events and trends this year and their importance to the country.
Brazil is globally known for its unique style of soccer and its national passion for the sport. When it’s a year of a World Cup, the demand in specific markets increases – many products related to the championship, such as TVs, smartphones, games, and sportswear, rise dramatically in demand during this time. That means, regardless of the economic forecast scenario, Brazilians will find their way (as they always do!) to appreciate their passion for soccer.
In addition, e-commerce will continue to grow in the new year. Shoppers have migrated from physical stores to online shops and are continuing to do so. Worldpay from FIS has estimated that e-commerce in Brazil is set to increase 56% by 2024.
Pix celebrated its first anniversary in November and has reached over 100 million users. The technology developed by the Central Bank of Brazil quickly became one of Brazilians’ favorite payment methods and has become the world’s fastest-adopted instant payment system.
According to the Central Bank of Brazil, because of its tremendous success, there’s more to come in 2022. Things like automatic charges, automatic recurring payments, and contactless payments are some of the features predicted to be embedded in Pix.
For digital businesses operating in the country, it means broadening payment methods offered to their customer and boosting sales revenue, as Brazilians choose Pix as one of their preferred real-time payment methods.
According to the International Compensation Bank, 50.5% of FinTech businesses out of the whole of Latin America are concentrated in Brazil. In 2021, US$500 million was invested in FinTech in the country, and Brazil received 68% of all funding in LatAm. Also, Brazil ranks as the fifth-largest internet and mobile device penetration globally.
The startup movement in Brazil has gained international attention. In the past, the country earned a reputation for its excessive bureaucracy and high taxation, but things have changed, and now it offers excellent potential for local and foreign businesses.
The largest unicorns in LatAm are also here: Nubank, C6 Bank, Nuvemshop, Wildlife Studios, and Loft, just to name a few.
However, some difficulties are still highlighted for digital businesses aiming to find ground in the fertile Brazilian territory, such as cultural differences, language barriers, and alternative payment methods.
So, before rushing to translate your website into Portuguese or trying to understand how the Brazilian market operates, it’s crucial to team up with a local and highly qualified partner in Brazil.
PagBrasil is a leading PSP in the country, and has been on the market for 20+ years. During this time, it has supported numerous cross-border merchants to expand their business in Brazil, offering alternative payment methods such as Boleto Flash® , Débito Flash™ , PagBrasil Pix , and many others.
The consumer’s behavior has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. People have become more confident to shop online and the market has adapted and opened to new opportunities.
Niches that have significantly increased in the last couple of years are wellness and health, pet care, e-learning, gaming, CBD, and SaaS, among others.
For instance, the gaming market in Brazil is expected to grow approximately 5.3% in 2022, set to reach US$1.84 billion. The industry is enormous: more than 70% of Brazilians play games online, and it is predicted to grow more than music and video streaming.
The same goes for the e-learning niche. Brazilians are choosing to get educated from the comfort of their homes, which will make the industry exponentially rise 18% from 2021 to 2025.
The newest niche to gain traction in Brazil is CBD. The use of cannabis in medicine is rising in demand from the consumer side and gaining supporters in the medical world. However, planting marijuana is illegal in Brazil, so producers must import the raw material and patients need medical prescriptions to get their medicine. Merchants working in the CBD production chain have an opportunity to expand their businesses and enter the Brazilian market.
After learning about all the possibilities that Brazil offers to cross-border merchants, if you wish to invest and expand in the country, we’d recommend you partner up with a local PSP. PagBrasil supports all modalities of local payment and offers exclusive and innovative methods of payment that have the highest conversion rates on the market.
If you wish to know more about our services, click here or get in touch with our sales team .
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Poll Tracker: Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Election
See how competition between presidential hopefuls is shaping up ahead of the October 2 first-round vote.
Brazil’s 2022 presidential election will see familiar faces on the ballot. Not only is current President Jair Bolsonaro in the race, but former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2010) is also running after being cleared by a judge of corruption charges last year. (link is external)
They are joined by candidates that include former Governor and Minister Ciro Gomes and Senator Simone Tebet .
Former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro —the judge who put Lula in jail—was polling in third place for most of 2022 but, he ended his campaign on March 31 (link is external) . São Paulo Governor João Doria also dropped out (link is external) on May 23.
The first round of the election takes place October 2, alongside votes for 27 out of 81 senators, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and all 27 governors and state legislatures. If no presidential or gubernatorial candidate reaches 50 percent, runoffs will take place on October 30. The new president will be sworn in January 1, 2023.
Voting in Brazil is compulsory and turnout was close to 80 percent (link is external) in the 2018 first-round vote.
AS/COA Online tracks surveys by top pollsters ahead of the vote.
Ahead of the October 2 first round, learn about the faceoff between Bolsonaro and Lula, as well as congressional contests.
AS/COA covers this year’s votes in the Americas, from presidential elections to referendums.
With hopes pinned on a new economy minister, several factors could disrupt the country’s fragile stability.
Ahead of the October 2 first round, learn about the faceoff between Bolsonaro and Lula, as well as congressional contests.
© 2022 Americas Society/Council of the Americas. All rights reserved.

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