Bitfinex Alpha #162 - Community Summary

BTC Consolidates as Whales Ease Holdings and New Buyers Step in

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Or explore the key highlights from this edition below:

Bitcoin rangebound but with upward bias

Bitcoin remains confined in a narrow consolidation range between $100,000 and $110,000, with market participants awaiting a clear catalyst to define the next direction. The price continues to respect the January all-time high of $109,590 as resistance, while consistently finding support near the Short-Term Holder Realised Price (STH-RP), around $98,220–$99,474. Despite a recent rebound from below $100K, the broader trend has stalled, reflecting a delicate balance: profit-taking pressure has eased, but buyers remain hesitant.

The market’s persistent defence of the rising STH-RP demonstrates continued structural strength. This key on-chain level has historically been a pivot for trend continuation, with recent resilience indicating bulls maintain control of the broader market structure. The rising cost basis suggests ongoing accumulation, likely by institutional investors through ETFs and corporate inflows, providing a more robust foundation than previous cycles. However, the lack of follow-through near range highs and recent declines in open interest and whale holdings signal growing caution among experienced participants.

Despite a slight pullback today, Bitcoin remains in an upward trend, even with a potential new tariff policy in the US on the radar. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at historic lows, signalling continued cautious demand dynamics.

The US macroeconomic environment shows increasing signs of strain amid broader headwinds. June payrolls recorded a gain of 147,000 jobs, nearly half linked to seasonal government hiring, while private sector job creation slowed to its weakest pace in eight months. Manufacturing and wholesale trade shed jobs, and labour force participation declined alongside a rise in long-term unemployment. Wage growth softened, average workweek hours decreased, and aggregate hours worked fell, reflecting cautious employer sentiment and subdued consumer demand. The ISM PMI for manufacturing remained below 50 for the fourth consecutive month amid supply chain and trade uncertainties. Although job openings rose, mainly in lower-wage leisure and hospitality roles, hiring lagged, revealing fragile labour demand. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve appears poised to maintain steady rates in the near term, with markets anticipating potential easing toward the year-end.

Solana launches first staking ETF with $33M volume on day one

Institutional interest in cryptocurrency is growing, contrasting the tentative macroeconomic climate. The launch of the first Solana staking ETF, SSK, was a milestone, attracting $33 million in volume on its first day and offering 5–7% staking yields, positioning Solana as a credible player in regulated capital markets.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies are accelerating. Spain’s Vanadi Coffee pivoted from its café business to amass Bitcoin holdings aiming for €1 billion in BTC exposure, though concerns remain regarding the company’s financial fragility. Meanwhile, Tokyo-based Metaplanet intensified its Bitcoin accumulation, holding 15,555 BTC after its latest purchase of 2,205 BTC, with ambitions to reach 210,000 BTC by 2027, aiming to become Asia’s leading corporate Bitcoin holder.

These developments highlight a growing divergence: while traditional markets struggle with uncertainty, digital assets are increasingly viewed as vehicles for yield, treasury diversification, and inflation hedging—signalling shifting priorities in institutional capital allocation.

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