Bitfinex Alpha #160 - Community Summary

Bitfinex Alpha: Can BTC Handle the Global Turmoil?

📊 Read the full Bitfinex Alpha report: https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-160.pdf

Or explore the key highlights from this edition below:

Macroeconomic Factors

Crypto markets faced a brutal week as panic selling and liquidations dragged Bitcoin down over 11.5% from its May high. BTC saw three consecutive days with over $400M in long liquidations—a rare signal of sentiment collapse. What started as a promising week, turned into one of the worst since January, as macro headwinds like soaring oil prices, stagflation fears, and geopolitical tensions triggered sharp downside pressure.

Still, total crypto market liquidations exceeded $2.6B, with altcoins like ETH and SOL dropping over 20%. Despite the chaos, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.02B in net inflows, showing rising institutional confidence. This demand helped stabilise BTC within the $94K–$110K range while derivatives markets flushed excess leverage. Whether ETF inflows continue—or falter—will likely determine if BTC holds this range or faces a deeper downside.

Despite all the tensions, we had some relieving news when Donald Trump announced, he had mediated a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This eased the initial pressure of the week and brought Bitcoin back into the $103K-$106K range, as seen during the recent weeks of sideways movement.

The Federal Reserve kept rates steady but signalled growing concern over persistent inflation, slowing growth, and political pressures. Fed Chair Powell warned that tariffs are expected to “meaningfully” increase consumer prices as businesses pass on higher costs.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil route—have rattled global markets. Rising freight costs and falling tanker activity reflect mounting anxiety. Oil prices may spike further if disruptions escalate. Gasoline futures have already surged, squeezing consumer budgets and complicating the Fed’s position, which now faces the choice of delaying rate cuts or risking persistent inflation.

US retail sales fell 0.9% in May, dragged down by declines in auto, fuel, and restaurant spending. However, core retail sales grew, suggesting discretionary spending remains resilient. Businesses, anticipating tariff hikes, have stockpiled wholesale inventories since late 2024, but retail shelves remain understocked. As retailers restock at higher costs, especially before the holiday season, a second wave of inflation could emerge—potentially forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.

Crypto Industry Developments

Former US President Donald Trump’s 2024 financial disclosure revealed over $600M in income, much of it derived from crypto ventures including the $TRUMP coin and World Liberty Financial. His significant involvement in crypto, real estate, and global branding has raised ethical concerns about the blurred line between business and politics.

Meanwhile, Vietnam passed a historic law granting full legal status to crypto assets starting in 2026, offering incentives to attract blockchain businesses and positioning itself as a leading regional tech hub.

In contrast, Iran’s largest exchange, Nobitex, suffered a politically motivated cyberattack resulting in up to $100M in asset losses—illustrating how crypto is increasingly entangled in geopolitical conflicts.

📊 Read the full Bitfinex Alpha report: https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-160.pdf

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