Bitfinex Alpha #159 - Community Summary

Bitfinex Alpha: Markets Nervous as BTC Consolidates

📊 Read the full Bitfinex Alpha report: https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-159.pdf

Or explore the key highlights from this edition below:

Macroeconomic Factors

Bitcoin started the week with a strong rebound, rising 4.7% and briefly retesting its prior all-time high of $109,590. However, optimism quickly shifted to risk-off after Israel’s unexpected strike on Iran on June 13 triggered a sharp selloff across global markets. BTC dropped 7.33%, closing the week lower as rising oil prices and macro uncertainty weighed on sentiment. This event serves as a reminder of how external shocks can derail even the strongest trends when markets are overheated.

Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume plunged to –$197M, the lowest since June 6, indicating aggressive selling pressure. Combined with a spike in liquidations, this behaviour resembles past capitulation events that often mark local bottoms. Holding the $102K–$103K zone would signal absorption of sell pressure and potential for recovery—provided geopolitical risks do not escalate further.

Importantly, the current correction remains modest by Bitcoin’s historical standards. A 9% peak-to-trough drawdown falls within normal volatility bands, with nearly half of all trading days this cycle having seen deeper pullbacks. The rapid decline in the Fear and Greed Index into "Fear" territory, despite only a mild price drop, reflects fragile sentiment—yet this may actually reduce downside risks as cautious positioning could fuel fast recoveries if demand returns. For now, BTC remains in a volatile but intact uptrend.

In the US, May inflation rose just 0.1%, thanks to falling energy prices. However, this relief could be temporary as tariffs and geopolitical tensions risk driving renewed inflation via supply chain disruptions and energy volatility. Labour markets are also showing stress: jobless claims rose to 248,000—approaching recessionary warning levels—and continuing claims hit the highest since 2021, suggesting displaced workers are struggling to find new jobs.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, balancing softer recent inflation with persistent inflation expectations, fragile employment data, and geopolitical uncertainty. Policymakers are likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering rate cuts.

Crypto Industry Developments

The crypto sector is entering a new phase focused on treasury strategies and regulatory recalibration. The Blockchain Group, often referred to as Europe's version of Strategy, announced a €300M at-the-market equity programme to expand its BTC reserves—signalling growing demand for BTC-backed equity under MiCA regulations.

Meanwhile, Cardano is considering diversifying $100M of its ADA treasury into native stablecoins and Bitcoin to deepen liquidity and strengthen DeFi infrastructure without external funding.

In parallel, the US SEC has withdrawn several Gensler-era proposals that targeted DeFi exchanges and custody frameworks. This move reflects a regulatory shift towards more innovation-friendly policies under Acting Chair Paul Atkins, signalling that regulators are starting to align with the decentralised ethos of Web3 finance.

📊 Read the full Bitfinex Alpha report: https://blog.bitfinex.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Bitfinex-Alpha-159.pdf

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