Bitfinex Alpha #149 - Community Summary
Bitfinex CommunityBitfinex Alpha: Macro Has Arrived but We Remain Positive on Q2
đź”— Check out the key points discussed in this week's Bitfinex Alpha:
https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-macro-has-arrived-but-we-remain-positive-on-q2/
After a relatively stable performance last week, with BTC closing down just 0.65%—outperforming traditional risk assets—it became evident that this was a delayed downside response.
Despite the BTC/S&P 500 ratio surging to within 5% of all-time highs, indicating strong relative strength, markets started the week selling off aggressively, but having dropped into oversold territory, there has been a near-term relief rally. However, short-term funding and open interest trends also suggest incoming volatility for BTC. That said, structurally the groundwork appears to be forming for outperformance later in Q2. As macro volatility cools, ETF inflows resume, and sovereign narratives re-emerge, Bitcoin may decouple from equities and reclaim leadership across global risk assets.
Macroeconomic Factors
The U.S. economy posted stronger-than-expected job and construction figures in early 2025, offering short-term optimism. However, deeper structural challenges are emerging as newly implemented tariffs begin to weigh heavily on manufacturing, pricing, and labor markets. March’s job growth, led by the private service sector, masks potential instability, with manufacturing and goods-producing sectors showing signs of strain.
Simultaneously, tariffs—now averaging over 22%—are raising input costs across industries, driving inflationary pressures and prompting retaliation from key trade partners. Construction spending rose in February due to easing mortgage rates, but cost inflation from materials like steel, aluminum, and lumber is already tightening affordability. Manufacturing activity has slipped back into contraction, and labor market indicators—especially job openings—point to a softening trend. While the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid uncertain inflation dynamics, the overall picture suggests that trade policy, not monetary policy, may be the bigger risk to economic momentum in the coming quarters.
Crypto Industry Developments
Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto industry continues to evolve positively. Japan is spearheading regulatory modernization by proposing to classify cryptocurrencies as financial products and reduce tax rates on crypto gains to 20%, aiming to boost investor participation and cement the country’s role as a global crypto hub.
Meanwhile, Grayscale has filed for a spot Solana ETF, signaling growing confidence in alternative Layer 1 assets and potentially paving the way for broader ETF adoption beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Complementing these developments, BlackRock’s on-chain BUIDL fund continues to dominate the tokenized treasury market, paying out $4.17 million in March dividends and capturing nearly 40% market share.
These parallel advancements underscore the accelerating convergence of traditional finance with blockchain technology, pointing toward a maturing market infrastructure that’s increasingly accessible, compliant, and investor-friendly.
đź“Š Check out the full Bitfinex Alpha report in English:
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