Bitfinex Alpha #148 - Community Summary

Bitfinex Alpha: Waiting on Macro

🔗 Check out the key points discussed in this week's Bitfinex Alpha:

https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-waiting-on-macro/

Q1 2025 was Bitcoin’s weakest in nearly a decade, dropping nearly 11% despite starting the year strongly with a new all-time high of $109,590 in January. Optimism around Trump’s re-election and pro-crypto sentiment faded, with Bitcoin falling around 29% to a low of $77,041, and trading in the $78K–$88K range.

Still, Bitcoin dominance rose above 61%, reflecting a shift away from riskier altcoins. Ethereum, Solana, and others are down 35–50% from their peaks, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as the market’s reserve asset.

As Q2 begins, BTC remains sensitive to macro signals. Fed policies and ETF flows are likely to shape the trend going forward. Capitulation has cooled, but with tight liquidity, a strong catalyst is still needed for momentum.

Macroeconomic Factors

Some US economic data is showing resilience—the trade balance has improved, durable goods spending has increased—but structural concerns outweigh the positives. Inflation is rising faster than expected, pushed by higher import costs and tariffs. Core CPI rose 0.4% in February, the highest in over a year, and expectations suggest it may stay elevated.

At the same time, economic growth is slowing. Real income gains (excluding transfers) remain weak, and spending on services, a key driver, is beginning to contract. Consumer confidence is at a two-year low, with more people expecting unemployment to rise. Personal savings are also increasing, showing household caution.

Trade policy remains a pressure point. New tariffs and more expected in coming months are prompting businesses and consumers to alter behavior—rushing purchases, delaying investments, or cutting hiring. While the February trade deficit narrowed, a January import spike likely skewed GDP forecasts. Q1 growth is now expected to slow sharply.

Crypto Industry Developments

Despite macro uncertainty, crypto continues to gain momentum from growing regulatory clarity, political support, and rising institutional interest.

The SEC officially dropped cases against Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW—major industry players—marking a shift from aggressive enforcement to a more collaborative regulatory tone.

Reinforcing this, the SEC’s Crypto Task Force announced four public roundtables from April to June 2025 to explore crypto trading, digital asset custody, tokenization, and DeFi. These sessions signal the SEC’s commitment to transparency and inclusive dialogue as it shapes future crypto rules.

📊 Check out the full Bitfinex Alpha report in English:

🔗 https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-waiting-on-macro/