Bitfinex Alpha #146 - Community Summary

Bitfinex Alpha: Waiting for Conviction

🔗 Check out the key points discussed in this week's Bitfinex Alpha:

https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-waiting-for-conviction/

Bitcoin has continued its decline from the January 20th all-time high of $109,590, reaching a low of $77,041 last week—a 29.7% retracement, making it the second-deepest correction of this cycle.

Historically, bull markets have seen 30% corrections before continuing an uptrend, but this cycle has had smaller pullbacks due to institutional adoption and ETF-driven demand. However, recent ETF outflows totaling $921.4 million last week suggest that institutional buyers have not returned strongly enough to offset selling pressure.

Short-Term Holders Facing Losses

Short-term holders remain under pressure, with many now at a loss. Investors who bought in the last 7-30 days are more likely to sell, increasing selling pressure.

Without new capital entering the market, Bitcoin risks further consolidation or downside movement, unless long-term holders or institutions step in to absorb supply.

Macroeconomic Factors

The US economy remains uncertain, with a resilient but cooling labor market, moderating inflation, and declining consumer confidence.

While inflation stayed low in February, concerns about supply chain disruptions and new trade tariffs could push prices higher. Job openings increased, but underemployment is rising, and consumer confidence is at its lowest level in over two years.

The Federal Reserve's response to these economic shifts will be crucial in determining whether the economy stabilizes or weakens further.

Crypto Market Developments

• Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF proposal on Cboe BZX Exchange now includes staking, which could attract more investors if approved.
• Thailand’s SEC approved USDt and USDC for trading on licensed exchanges, setting a regulatory precedent for stablecoins.
• US Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, proposing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, though it faces opposition from banks and the Federal Reserve.
• MicroStrategy announced a $21 billion stock offering to expand its Bitcoin holdings, showing continued institutional demand but raising regulatory concerns.

📊 Check out the full Bitfinex Alpha report in English:

🔗 https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-waiting-for-conviction/