Bitcoin 2024-2026: the triennium of institutional adoption

How Bitcoin is conquering Wall Street and governments, transforming from a speculative asset to a global strategic reserve.

In the long process of Bitcoin monetization, begun in 2009 and destined to conclude when the cryptocurrency becomes a universal unit of account, the triennium 2024-2026 will be remembered as the era of institutional adoption.

Analyzing retrospectively the previous years, the 2017-2021 cycle had registered notable interest from retail investors, but scarce enthusiasm from financial institutions. The second half of 2022 and the first semester of 2023 will go down in history as the “Bitcoin winter”, with prices plummeting to $15,500 in the week following the collapse of the FTX exchange.

The turning point in institutional attitude materialized in June 2023, when BlackRock submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a request for a Bitcoin spot ETF. Until that moment, in the United States only futures ETFs were available, not spot, where the issuer must physically purchase the equivalent of the asset subscribed by clients. This move triggered a real “ETF rush”, with another 10 institutions rapidly submitting applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs.

2024 opened with the SEC’s approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, a date destined to mark the beginning of a new era for the cryptocurrency. For the first time, broad segments of the population previously excluded from the Bitcoin ecosystem were able to access it, albeit through institutional custody. This category includes:

• institutional investors;
• companies (except those led by CEOs like Michael Saylor);
• pension funds;
• insurance companies;
• financial advisors;
• retail investors interested in including bitcoin in their stock portfolios.

Seventeen months after approval, spot ETFs have collected $46 billion. According to Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the launch of IBIT represents the most successful debut in ETF history.

2025 is characterized by the concept of “Strategic bitcoin reserve”. With the inauguration of the Trump administration, the United States’ attitude toward Bitcoin changed from “hostile” to “favorable”. After some controversial crypto-style initiatives – such as the launch of a meme coin called Trump or the announcement of a strategic reserve initially inclusive of ADA and XRP – on March 7, 2025, the United States officially established a “Strategic bitcoin reserve” with clear guidelines.

Bitcoin was distinctly separated from any other cryptocurrency, creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” distinct from the “Digital Asset Stockpile”. It was specified that all bitcoin currently in possession of the US government automatically enters the reserve and will not be sold, a clause not extended to altcoins. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce received the mandate to identify ways to acquire new bitcoin without burdening taxpayers (budget neutral). This passage has been misunderstood by many, who have interpreted the acquisition of new bitcoin as uncertain. In reality, the mandate is imperative: the official document uses the term “shall” (must) instead of “can” or “may”. Bo Hines, new director of digital assets for the USA, to the question “how many bitcoins do you intend to purchase” responded unequivocally: “as many as possible”.

The initiative is not limited to the federal government. Currently three states have already established strategic Bitcoin reserves: New Hampshire, Arizona and Texas. Simultaneously, the number of companies following the example of Strategy is growing: according to Bitcoin Treasuries, 214 companies have integrated bitcoin into their balance sheets, including GameStop, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, Hive Digital Technologies and Exodus Movement. Such a list is destined to expand with the increase in bitcoin’s price.

The last eighteen months have recorded important pro-Bitcoin regulatory progress.

On January 23, 2025, the SEC revoked the controversial banking regulation SAB 121 that imposed on banks and regulated financial institutions to register clients’ cryptocurrencies as liabilities on their balance sheets. On May 28, 2025, the United States eliminated barriers for the inclusion of bitcoin in 401(k) retirement plans.

Numerous influential personalities and previously skeptical institutions have modified their position. Banco Santander, which years ago blocked transfers to the Binance exchange, is now evaluating offering cryptocurrency trading services. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and historic Bitcoin detractor, recently announced that his bank will allow clients to purchase Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Even the rhetoric of opponents has evolved. The governor of Arizona, Katie Hobbs, in vetoing a pro-Bitcoin law, motivated the decision by defining Bitcoin “an untested investment”, abandoning traditional arguments about “lack of intrinsic value” or “criminal use”.

Despite the distance from complete institutional adoption, the progress of the last eighteen months has been significant. According to a survey published by PlanAdviser, in the fourth quarter of 2024 one in five financial advisors recommended cryptocurrencies to clients, while over a third (35%) advised them to at least half of their clientele. The most recommended allocation is 2%.

Over time, an increase is expected both in the number of financial advisors recommending Bitcoin and in the percentage of suggested allocation. If in 2024 about 70-75% of allocations in spot ETFs came from retail investors, in 2025 the institutional component is acquiring growing relevance. Bloomberg reported that in the last five weeks, while Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of $9 billion, gold ETFs suffered outflows of $2.8 billion.

Such interest assumes particular significance considering that less than three years ago, in November 2022, about a week after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin touched the cyclical minimum of $15,500. In that period, the majority of the banking and institutional world opposed Bitcoin, with the European Central Bank publishing the famous article “Bitcoin’s Last Stand”, predicting the imminent irrelevance of the cryptocurrency.

Continuing this trend, the next eighteen months could prove decisive, especially in case of significant price increase. Higher prices will amplify global interest in Bitcoin.

It is fundamental to clarify Bitcoin’s final objective. If the objective is, as I believe, to become global money, the involvement of the political and institutional world is inevitable. Separating money from the State means eliminating the power to manipulate monetary supply, not preventing the use of money by institutions.

Wall Street and various governments are not manipulating Bitcoin. Every state, company, bank or investment fund that adopts a favorable position toward Bitcoin should be considered a victory for the cryptocurrency, considering its seventeen years of existence.

None of these institutions is altering Bitcoin: the supply remains limited to 21 million units, a new block is created approximately every ten minutes, the halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. As Satoshi Nakamoto wrote: “The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime”.

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