Betting Second Spread
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Betting Second Spread
Shobhit Seth is a freelance writer and an expert on commodities, stocks, alternative investments, cryptocurrency, as well as market and company news. In addition to being a derivatives trader and consultant, Shobhit has over 17 years of experience as a product manager and is the owner of FuturesOptionsETC.com. He received his master's degree in financial management from the Netherlands and his Bachelor of Technology degree from India.
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Samantha Silberstein is a Certified Financial Planner, FINRA Series 7 and 63 licensed holder, State of California life, accident, and health insurance licensed agent, and CFA. She spends her days working with hundreds of employees from non-profit and higher education organizations on their personal financial plans.
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Spread betting lets people speculate on the direction of a financial market or other activity without actually owning the underlying security; they simply bet on its price movement. There are several strategies used in spread betting, from trend following to news-based wagers. Other traders look to capitalize on rare arbitrage opportunities by taking multiple positions in mispriced markets and putting them back in line.
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The Basics of Options Profitability
Spread betting refers to speculating on the direction of a financial market without actually owning the underlying security.
An outright option is an option that is bought or sold individually and is not part of a multi-leg options trade.
Options are financial derivatives that give the buyer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a stated price within a specified period.
A derivative is a securitized contract whose value is dependent upon one or more underlying assets. Its price is determined by fluctuations in that asset.
An iron condor involves buying and selling calls and puts with different strike prices when a trader expects low volatility.
A short call is a strategy involving a call option, giving a trader the right, but not the obligation, to sell a security.
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Among the many opportunities to trade, hedge or speculate in the financial markets, spread betting appeals to those who have substantial expertise in identifying price moves and who are adept in profiting from speculation . One thing should be made clear: spread betting is currently illegal in the United States. 1 That said, it's still a legal and popular practice in some European countries, particularly in the United Kingdom. For this reason, all examples quoted in the following strategies are cited in British pounds, or GBP (£) .
Spread betting comes with high risks but also offers high-profit potential. Other features include zero taxes, 2 high leverage , and wide-ranging bid-ask spreads . If spread betting is legal in your market, here are few strategies you could follow.
Popular betting firms like U.K.-based CityIndex allow spread betting across thousands of different global markets. Users can spread bet on assets like stocks, indices, forex, commodities, metals, bonds, options, interest rates, and market sectors. 3 To do so, bettors often apply trend following , trend reversal , breakout trading, and momentum trading strategies for various instruments, and across various asset classes such as commodities, FX, and stock index markets.
Corporate moves can trigger a round of spread betting. For example, take when a stock declares a dividend and the dividend subsequently goes ex (meaning to expire on the declared ex-date ). Successful bettors keep a close watch on particular companies' annual general meetings ( AGM ) to try and get the jump on any potential dividend announcements, or other critical corporate news.
Say a company whose stock is currently trading at £60 declares a dividend of £1. The share price starts to rise up to the level of the dividend: in this case, somewhere around £61. Before the announcement, spread bettors take positions intended to gain from such sudden jumps. For example, say a trader enters a long-bet position of 1,000 shares at £60, with a £5 per point move. So in our example, with the £1 price increase upon the dividend announcement, the trader gains:
Similarly, bettors will seek to take advantage of the dividend's ex-date. Assume that one day before the ex-date, the stock price stands at £63. A trader may take a short position of 1,000 shares with a £10 spread bet per point. The next day, when the dividend goes ex, the share price typically falls by the (now-expired) dividend amount of £1, landing around £62.
The trader will close his position by pocketing the difference: in this case, a £10,000 profit:
Experienced bettors additionally mix spread betting with some stock trading. So, for instance, they may additionally take a long position in the stock and collect the cash dividend by holding it beyond the ex-date. This will allow them to hedge between their two positions, as well as gain a bit of income through the actual dividend.
Structuring trades to balance profit-and-loss levels is an effective strategy for spread betting, even if the odds aren't often in your favor.
Say that on average, a hypothetical trader named Mike wins four spread bets out of five, with an 80% win rate. Meanwhile, a second hypothetical trader, Paul, wins two spread bets out of five, for a 40% win rate. Who's the more successful trader? The answer seems to be Mike, but that might not be the case. Structuring your bets with favorable profit levels can be a game-changer.
In this example, say that Mike has taken the position of receiving £5 per winning bet and losing £25 per losing bet. Here, even with an 80% win rate, Mike's profits are wiped out by the £25 he had to pay on his one bad bet:
By contrast, say Paul earns £25 per winning bet and only drops £5 per losing bet. Even with his 40% win rate, Paul still makes a £7 profit (0.4 x £25 –0.6 x £5). He winds up the winning trader despite losing 60% of the time.
Spread betting often concerns the price moves of an underlying asset, such as a market index. If you bet £100 per point move, an index that moves 10 points can generate a quick profit of £1,000, though a shift in the opposite direction means a loss of a similar magnitude. Active spread bettors (like news traders ) often choose assets that are highly sensitive to news items and place bets according to a structured trading plan. For example, news about a nation's central bank making an interest-rate change will quickly reverberate through bonds, stock indices, and other assets.
Another ideal example is a listed company awaiting the results of a major project bidding. Whether the company wins or loses the bid means a stock price swing in either direction, with spread bettors taking positions based on both outcomes.
Arbitrage opportunities are rare in spread betting, but traders can find a few in some illiquid instruments. For example, say a lowly tracked index is currently at value 205. One spread-betting firm is offering a bid-ask spread of 200-210 for the closing price, while another offers a 190-195 spread. So a trader can go short with the first firm at 200 and long with the other at 195, each with £20 per point.
In each case, she still gets a profit of £250, as she nets five points, at £20 per point. However, such arbitrage opportunities are rare and depend on spread bettors detecting a pricing anomaly in multiple spread betting firms and then acting in a timely manner before the spreads align.
The high profit potential of spread betting is matched by its serious risks: the move of just a few points means a significant profit or loss. Traders should only attempt spread betting after they've gained sufficient market experience, know the right assets to choose, and have perfected their timing.
City Index by Gain Capital. " What Is Spread Betting? "
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The best bet is always the one you think you would have placed after the match, right? But that’s impossible, unless you’ve invented a time machine... The only way to experience this is by placing second half bets. You take notes during the first half, you see what’s happening and you can place a valuable bet, usually at increased odds than the ones existing in the pre-game market. By deciding this you're armed with two powerful weapons bound to give you profit in the long term.
The first weapon is obvious: You’ ve already seen half of the show . You don’t need to guess the starting lineups or wonder what the weather's like. You have this information in front of you, together with a lot of other useful things: Which team is more aggressive, what are the main tactics of the coaches, how fit and creative are the key players and how is the referee directing the match.
The second weapon is more interesting: The odds are affected more by factors other than team’s strength and motivation. Regardless of both team’s potential, shots on goal or general offensive and defensive play, the odds adapt to countable figures, such as the current score and the time. This situation is creating a lot of chances for valuable bets.
You need an example? Supposing you’re watching a match where the pre-game 1X2 odds were 1,65-3,60-5,00 and 1,80/2,00 at the over/under 2,5 goals market. How would these odds be affected if the match is struck to a goalless draw at halftime? Even if the home team is absolutely dominating the match, with strikers hitting the bar twice and having already had a goal disallowed, and the opponent delivering some dangerous counterattacks?
The match potential would be of course taken into consideration by the bookie , but he couldn’t offer the same odds with half the match gone. The most probable scenario is that the 1X2 would be transformed to something like 2,00-2,30-8,50 and the over 2,5 goals odds would be rising to over 2,80. Having witnessed the home team domination during the first 45 minutes, a second half bet to the home team or to the over 2,5 goals odds would be a valuable one.
How do second half bets work? There are two main types of second half betting markets.
I’m sure you’ve noticed some second half bets in the pre-game markets. These are usually coming along with the first half bets, which are by far more popular and valuable. My advice is to keep away from second half bets at pre-game, simply because you give away your greatest weapon, the knowledge you have after actually watching the first half.
Think it in another way: These pre-game second half bets odds are based almost totally in numbers. Bookies just analyze numbers (which team has better second-half performance, how many goals are scored in second half etc.) and offer odds. But, that’s exactly what YOU do to decide which bet to place. If you have no “live data” from the match, you’ve got to lean to numbers. If both sides (you and the bookmaker) are doing the same thing, it’s almost impossible to find a valuable bet.
The basic rule for finding value in 2nd halftime bets is that the bookie should offer “fairer” odds compared to pre-match ones. What do “fairer” mean? This is a question of personal taste, as every punter sets his own limits. There are some commonly accepted ones, though. For example, if the odds for a home win stood at 1.50 before the start of the match, the should rise around 2.20 at halftime (provided no team is winning). A pre-match home win offered at 2.00 odds should be offered around 2.60-2.80 or higher at halftime to be considered a tempting one.
If you'd like to win a 2nd half bet explained clearly and form a specific strategy, you need to do some research to numbers. You’ll find many useful things, which will help you to decide more accurately what are the most valuable second half bets. The most tricky part of this statistic analysis is the difference between first and second half goals.
At the following table you can find the clubs of top five leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France) with the highest difference on their goals scored on each half (with most scored in second half, of course) for the 2017-18 season. Read this and you'll be able to answer yourself the "betting in which half has more goals strategy?" question.
Which is the most important conclusion someone could bring away of this? If you look carefully at the table, you’ll find no powerhouses such as Bayern Munchen, Juventus, PAris Saint Germain of FC Barcelona. So, if you’d like to chase second half bets, it’s really worthy to focus on mid-table or even struggling teams, who are scoring some 60%+ of their total goals in second half.
When it comes to football betting, a second half strategy chosen by the following popular five could lead to to long- term profit.
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