Betting Point Spread To Probability Calculator

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One of the big aspects of understanding the odds which you see at a bookmaker is knowing what they actually mean in terms of probability. The odds that are presented, are calculated by the bookmaker in relation to what the bookmaker thinks the chances of a certain outcome of a sporting event happening is.
For example, a UEFA Champions League match between Liverpool and PSG read Liverpool 6/5, Draw 13/5 and PSG 2/1. With those odds, you can easily calculate the amount of return that you would get back from placing a bet on either of those outcomes. But what are the implied chances of each of those outcomes happening? It is important to know because this also relates to the risk of your bet.
So let’s take a look at just how to convert odds to probability (percentages)
The most common form of odds are going to be decimal odds in the UK and here is how to convert decimal odds to probability. These are clear odds to read and for example the 6/5 odds on Liverpool from the example above means that for every 5 units you put on, you will receive 6 back as a profit.
To convert Fractional odds to probability there is a simple calculation of Denominator divided by (Denominator + Enumerator) multiplied by 100.
For our 6/5 odds that is 5 / (6 + 5)
Which calculates to 5 / 11
5 / 11 equals 0.45
0.45 multiplied by 100 = 45%
So the bookmaker believes that Liverpool has a 45% implied chance of winning the game.
Many punters like reading odds presented in the decimal format because it simply tells you what you are going to get returned to you from a bet, including the stake. It is a little bit less cumbersome in converting decimal odds to probability as well. The decimal odds on our Liverpool v PSG game are Liverpool 2.20, draw 3.60 and PSG 3.10
It is a simple formula of 1 divided by decimal odds multiplied by 100. Let’s stick with the Liverpool 2.20 odds.
1 / 2.20 = 0.45 0.45 multiplied by 100 = 45%
So it is all important stuff to know because you want to know the real risk in terms of probability of what your money is going down on. Remember that when you are converting odds to percentages then there is always a bookmaker percentage worked into the deal.
What we mean by that as if you were to calculate odds to percentages on each of the three outcomes for the Liverpool v PSG game we are using as an example, it wouldn’t total 100%. It would be more. Most totals like this on the outcome of a sports event will calculate out to around between 103% and 105% which is the margin that the bookmakers run at for their profits.
There is also the scenario of when you may need to convert a probability number to odds. This could be super useful when looking for Value Bets, where you assess your own chances of an outcome of a match. Once you have gotten the odds from your percentage prediction, then you can go hunt around for those odds which represent the best value for you.
Fortunately for ease and efficiency, you can find our conversion calculator which will do all of the work for you. You don’t have to break out the pencil and paper and start figuring things out, you can calculate probability from odds quickly by just plugging in the numbers. Just choose between the decimal or fractional odds input, plug in the numbers and away you go. You can also convert probability into odds in the calculator too.
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Moneyline wagers represent the most straightforward way to bet on sports. A moneyline bet tasks the bettor with simply choosing the winner of a game, with no point spread involved.
All moneyline odds can be converted into implied probability, breaking down each team’s chances of winning as implied by the sportsbook’s moneyline on the game.
Converting moneyline odds into implied probability takes a bit of algebraic work. The Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator takes that work out of the equation, however, instantly converting any moneyline number into an implied probability of winning.
Enter the American odds in the space provided and hit calculate to get the percent value. Note that you must place the “-” in front of favorite moneyline odds to get the proper implied probability.
A moneyline bet functions as a straight-up wager on which team will win a game. This kind of bet doesn’t involve a point spread.
The underdog on the moneyline pays out at greater odds than the favorite. Sportsbooks generally display the moneyline, point spread, and totals odds on a game, but all three function as separate bets.
Here’s a look at how DraftKings Sportsbook presented the lines on Super Bowl LV a few days before the game:
US sportsbooks generally display American odds, with potential payouts denoted by the “+” or “-“ in front of the odds. The “+” indicates the underdog on the moneyline, while the “-“ denotes the favorite.
DraftKings sets Tampa Bay as the Super Bowl LV underdog, with the Buccaneers paying out at (+140) moneyline odds. The sportsbook puts favored Kansas City at (-162) on the moneyline.
Note that the point spread and totals columns for the Super Bowl also display an American Odds payout. Moneyline bets don’t involve any kind of point spread, however, and only concerns the straight-up winner of the game.
Using an implied probability calculator, you can convert the moneyline odds into an implied chance of winning for each team.
In this case, the (-162) moneyline on the Chiefs implies that Kansas City has a 61.83% chance of winning. Tampa Bay’s (+140) odds convert to a 41.67% chance of winning.
Astute bettors look for value in moneyline bets, and that assessment requires converting the odds into implied probability. If you think the Buccaneers have better than a 41.67% chance of winning, for instance, the Tampa Bay (+140) line presents value.
You can plug in and moneyline odds into the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator and convert those odds into implied probability. Other sports betting odds calculators include tools that allow you to calculate moneyline odds or the house edge by inputting the sportsbook’s offered moneyline odds.
Our implied probability calculator works the same way. Simply input the moneyline odds on either side of a bet, and the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator gives you an instant calculation of that team’s implied probability.
For “+” moneyline odds, simply input the number without the “+” sign. So for the Buccaneers (+140) odds, for instance, just type “140” into the “American Odds” field in the calculator.
After inputting “140” and clicking “Calculate” we see that Tampa Bay’s implied winning probability is 41.67%.
For “-“ moneyline odds, be sure to include the “-“ sign in front of the inputted number. Calculating Kansas City’s (-162) moneyline odds yields a 61.83% implied winning probability for the Chiefs.
This Implied Probability Calculator converts American odds into implied probability. This calculation converts the odds into a form that is easier to quantify: percent likelihood of the event occurring. This type of calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means the combined probabilities don’t add up to exactly 100%.
Implied probability is most useful when determining the sportsbook’s edge over the bettor. It is important to note: this is not the margin/vig/juice. This is simply the advantage they have in being profitable over the bettor. Though it will never tell you which team to select, determining the percent implied probability over 100% will point out lines where the book’s advantage is lower. In being a successful sports bettor every percentage point counts, and each point the book gives back is one more win toward profitability for the bettor.
Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flipping example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Once again, the calculation is slightly different for minus odds versus plus odds.

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)
Implied Probability = (-1*(-110)) / (-1(-110) + 100)
That number should be familiar to experienced bettors as the break-even winning percentage bettors shoot for. Because -110 on one side of a bet usually means -110 on the other side too, we can add all the probabilities (in this case another -110 probability) to determine the sportsbook’s edge.
(Heads Probability + Tails Probability) – 1 = Sportsbook’s Edge
or:

(0.524 + 0.524) – 1 = 0.048 or 4.8%
Ideally you should be looking for bets with the lowest sportsbook edge you can. It is a subtle edge in sports betting, but remember the difference between winning at 52% and 53% is a world of difference.
Let’s work a positive odds example. We’ll use the following moneyline bet where the favorite is -190 and the underdog is +160. First we break down the implied probability on +160 odds :
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

or:
To get the other outcome, we calculate the -190 odds:
65.5% or 0.655 = (-1(-190)) / (-1(-190) + 100)
In the above example we see that the sportsbook’s advantage is:
What this tells us is that with no other information a bet on the -190/+160 is more likely to be successful over the long term than the -110/-110 example.
Sportsbooks install moneyline odds on each game that gives the house a slight edge over the player in the long run.
In the Super Bowl example above, for instance, the implied probabilities for the Buccaneers and Chiefs add up to more than 100%. This happens because the sportsbooks offer this bet with the built-in house edge.
The sportsbooks aim to get enough bets on both sides of the Super Bowl to allow the house to make money no matter what. If the public puts heavy betting interest on one team, the sportsbook will start to shift the line the other way, with the goal of producing more wagers on the other team.
More than a dozen US states currently offer legal online sports betting. Virginia and Michigan became the latest states to launch mobile sports wagering, with both states doing so in January 2021.
Several notable brands compete for market share in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These states represent some of the top online sports betting markets in the US.
FanDuel Sportsbook takes the No. 1 spot as the biggest online sportsbook by market share in the US. The platform offers a robust selection of sports, betting types, and deposit/cashout options.
Ten states currently enjoy access to the FanDuel Sportsbook platform. Those jurisdictions include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Virginia.
DraftKings and FanDuel battle for mobile sports betting supremacy in several states. DraftKings Sportsbook offers one of the most comprehensive online sports betting platforms in the legal US industry.
Eleven different states can bet online at DraftKings Sportsbook. That list includes New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Known in the sports betting industry for its player-friendly welcome bonuses and creative prop bets, BetRivers has emerged as one of the top online sportsbooks in the US in just a short time.
BetRivers takes online sports bets in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia.
Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.
More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.
Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.
Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.
Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.
Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.
Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.
To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.
To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.
The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.
Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.
Is online sports betting legal in the US?
Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.
More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.
When should I use an implied probability calculator?
Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.
Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.
Is it legal to use an implied probability calculator?
Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.
Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.
Who sets the odds at online sportsbooks?
Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.
How do I convert American odds to fractional odds?
To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.
To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.
What is the best online sportsbook in the US?
The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.
Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.
Geoff Fisk is a San Diego-based freelance writer, specializing in the poker and gambling industries. He’s written for numerous platforms and has traveled the globe as a live poker tournament reporter. Geoff is an avid sports fan, but poker is his passion.
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