Betting Nfl Against The Spread

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Betting Nfl Against The Spread
Sports Betting Advice // Content Creator @ Sportsjaw.com
Game day news, betting predictions, and social commentary.
In terms of playoff football, Mid-November always proves to be the time of year to come to terms with reality- separating the pretenders from contenders. But the season is still relatively young and the public begins to gear their assumptions contrary to what they were doing early in the season. With that, leaves value on the table for sharps.
Take for example the Surging Oakland Raiders who were assumed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL to start the season. In 4 of their 5 wins, they’ve been the dog and been tremendous value on the Moneyline and they’re also 6–3 ATS. Now here in week 11, they’re double-digit favorites.
I’ll admit, some of the picks below are compiled from insights from our guys over at Sportsjaw who have been highly successful betting on certain teams. If I find them to a better statistical edge then I do on a team or matchup, then consider me as a middle-man offering the pick. At the end of the day, the Sportsjaw community is all about collectively covering the spread and beating the bookie.
Currently, only 32% of the public is on Denver to cover in this one. However, 70% of the money is on the Broncos which tells us one thing — sharps like the Broncos to cover on the road. Backup Quarterbacks are 23–19 on the season including a 1–0 record for Brandon Allen and the Broncos who were +4 home dogs to the Browns prior to the bye week.
The Raiders are a double-digit chalk for just the third time in 15 years. The energy is high in the Oakland Coliseum as Jon Gruden proves that he’s still one of the brightest and influential coaches in the NFL. Oakland is 7–1 ATS and 6–2 straight up over its last eight home games and the Bengals are coming off of a 36-point beatdown at home. CB with Lamarcus Joyner looks like he’ll miss this one but with no John Ross or AJ Green, where do the Bengals pose a threat?
This one has playoff implications but both teams are in that “must win out” boat. With Brissett returning, the Jaguars and their 24th ranked run defense DVOA will be forced to stay honest and not load the box, allowing the #5 rush offense to control the flow of the game. Nick Foles is back but can we really consider that a big boost?
The Chargers went a mile high (Colorado) to gameplan for this game. Why? It’s being played in Mexico City. Kansas City’s defense is going to be winded in this one with a Chargers offense that will run the ball down their throats. K.C. gives up 148.1 yards on the ground/game and Anthony Lynn and co. are in desperation mode after a slow start. Phillip Rivers will be locked in.
Reports are circulating that Sean McVay is struggling with coaching right now. It shows as what was an offensive display of brilliance is now 22nd in 3rd down completion rate and yards/rush (3.9). But Chicago has plenty of woes of their own as they’re likely out of playoff contention at this point. However, in late-season matchups between two teams at the opposite ends of the ATS spectrum, trend bettors should target the team with the losing record ATS: The Bears are currently 3–6 ATS while the Rams are 6–3.
Miami is playing, dare I say, good football? Well, they’ve won a couple games as of late. Meanwhile, Buffalo continues to struggle on offense after a loss to the Browns. Right now, even against the Dolphins, I can’t trust Josh Allen at any price above a touchdown and that’s where this line stands.
Injuries will certainly play a big roll in how to bet this one leading up to kickoff with SF’s top-3 offensive playmakers currently sidelined. The Cardinals lost by just 3-points a couple of weeks back to a healthier Niners team but this line opened at SF -14 and 80% of the public is backing Kyler Murray to keep it close. I can’t trust any of that. Arizona will look to run the ball with David Johnson & Kenyan Drake as the 49ers are giving up 4.6 yards/carry. Still, that kind of movement on the line can’t be trusted. My best advice is to hold off on this until the injury report is a bit clearer- you already missed the value. If all of Garoppolo’s weapons are sidelined on Saturday, take the Cardinals at this number.
This matchup packs a punch and offers surprises, year after year. The Saints lost straight up to the Falcons despite being double-digit favorite last week — that was at home. They ended up losing by the same number they were favored by (14). With Marcus Lattimore likely sidelined for a team that the public is overrating, I can’t trust Drew Brees (who has lost his last two starts) and the Saints any more than I can trust Jameis Winston to heave a 60-yard touchdown or a 60 yard INT returned for a touchdown.
Gang Green is getting 72% of the bets against Washington, making them the third-most popular side on the board this week. I have to go with the public on this one. The Skins are a dumpster fire of a franchise and this season may be the peak of their downfall. Dwayne Haskins going up against a Gregg Williams-style defense is all I need to know. Take the Jets on the Moneyline.
Expect this to be the nail in the coffin for the Lions and the start of a win-streak for the Cowboys leading up to a pivitol showdown with the Eagles in week 14. Matthew Stafford is out and the only reason this team was winning was because of his heroics this year. Amari Cooper will have a field day and so to will Zeke as Detroit’s defense is 30th in yards allowed (402.1), 26th in opponent 3rd down conversion % and 27th against the run.
Both teams are coming off a bye, but during the bye week, the Eagles placed DeSean Jackson on IR. On top of that, WR Alshon Jeffery hasn’t practiced this week and is trending towards sitting out this one. It doesn’t stop there as they’re so banged up at RB that they brought in Jay Ajaayi for a workout this week and said he “might even play.” Against the best defense in the NFL, on the best team in the history of the NFL perhaps, I’m not going to be the one that doubts Brady and co. — especially coming off of a loss.
Only Russell Wilson has accounted for more TDs than Deshawn Watson. He’s also 4–0 in games played in November in his career. The Texans have ran the ball well this season and are top 5 in all the important offensive categories. Lamar Jackson has found ways to win but against a talent like Watson, I think this game plays out a lot like Seattle vs San Francisco last week where the underdog had an MVP-caliber QB take control and upset the home team.

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