Betting Changes Spread In National Championship Game

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This National Championship offers a unique challenge to bettors as it features two teams that have combined to be underdogs only once this season.
Considering Clemson was the top team in the country at the start of the season, have covered 8 of their last 9, won 29 in a row, have a starting QB that has never lost and are the reigning champs, a +5.5 spread with 75% of the money still coming in on LSU is crazy.
The Tigers have four massive wins in their last seven games (Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma) and have only been held under 36 points once all season.
You can find our picks for the game in the next section down, or take the poll below to let us know who you like in the 2020 National Championship!
How are you betting the National Championship spread?
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Before we jump right into our picks, let’s talk about the current line, and how it got to as high as LSU -6.5 in some places. If we look back to less than two weeks ago, FanDuel had LSU as a 1 point favorite in this hypothetical National Championship game.
After the public watched LSU steamroll the Sooners and Clemson come out somewhat flat against the Buckeyes, that number has shifted 4.5 points on FanDuel and 5.5 points at the top domestic books.
Not only has the number moved, but the public has not stopped betting the LSU side. At the moment, 75% of the tickets written on this game are on LSU… easily the highest ever for a National Championship game.
Here is a look at how the global market opened this game, and where the lines are now:
If we compare those numbers to the domestic books, FanDuel opened at -5.5 and remain there, while DraftKings opened at -3.5 and quickly moved the line to -5.5.
As sports betting is legalized around the country, more information is available than ever to bettors, which means you are going to be overloaded with stats and data heading into Monday’s title game.
Here are the stats we think matter most:
This game is going to be tight, there is no way you can argue it won’t be. Even the computers can’t agree on this one… ESPN gives Clemson a 56% chance of winning while Sportsline gives LSU a 60% chance of winning.
We know both teams are capable of winning here because we have seen them do it already this season. LSU has wins against Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia. While Clemson just beat an Ohio State team that came into the game as the nation’s top-scoring offense and defense, having throttled everyone in the Big 10, arguably the nation’s deepest conference.
While the LSU passing attack (2nd in nation) vs the Clemson passing defense (1st in the nation) is going to get all of the headlines, and rightfully so… we think it determines the winner of this game. LSU’s defense has looked beatable throughout this season (Tua and Ehlinger both threw for over 400 yards against the Tigers)… Clemson is going to score enough to win this game if their defense can get stops.
Brent Venables is the highest-paid assistant coach in the country and based on the job he did this season, you could make the argument that he should get another raise this offseason. The challenge here is immense. He needs to generate pressure on Burrow by blitzing (this Clemson front will not win against LSU’s offensive line), without getting torched on the back end. Nobody has done it all season, blitzing Burrow has been a death sentence.
We were in an eerily similar situation last season. Alabama came into the National Championship game with a QB that averaged 320 passing YPG despite rarely playing more than a series in the third quarter of games. Venables defense was the tops in the country last season as well, and he found a way to hold Alabama to just 16 points. The question is can he do it again without Ferrell, Wilkins, and Lawrence?
While we aren’t sold that the Clemson defense will shut down Burrow like they did Tua last year, we are more than happy to take the 6.5 points in what is going to be an extremely tight game.
Everybody expects fireworks in this game, and as you might expect the over is an extremely popular bet. In fact, 66% of the tickets written so far have been on the over.
If the line ends up closing at 69 (70 available on global books), LSU will have gone over that number 8 times this season, but Clemson would have just two games over the total on the year. Keep in mind Clemson’s defense has been considerably better than LSU’s. They have allowed more than 14 points just three times this season, while LSU has allowed opponents to score more than 14 points eight times.
As good as Venables’ Clemson defense has been the last two seasons, he did give up a combined 76 points to Clemson in the 2015 and 2016 National Title games.
We just don’t see that happening here and will be fading the public again on this one.
This Clemson defense is too good to let LSU get to 35 points. Only one team has scored 35 against Clemson in the last three seasons, and that was the fluke 2018 game against South Carolina. Not a title game that Clemson had two weeks to prepare for.
Speaking of title games, only one national championship game has gone over 69 points in the last 14 seasons. That was the 2015 Clemson/Alabama game that needed 40 4th quarter points, including a 95 yard Kenyan Drake kick return, to go over.
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Home»2022 National Championship Odds: ’Bama The Favorite
Odds Shark Staff | Wed, Aug 11 2021, 11:15am
The wild and wacky 2020-21 college football season came to an end with the Alabama Crimson Tide being crowned the national champions. Now, we take a quick look at the 2021-22 national championship odds and once again Alabama sits in the top spot at +260.
Online sportsbook BetOnline has released the 2022 national championship odds, making Alabama the +260 favorite. The Crimson Tide are followed closely by Clemson at +450, Oklahoma at +600, Georgia at +650 and Ohio State at +700 to round out the top five on the oddsboard.
New to the college football scene and reading college football championship odds? Check out our handy college football betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our College Football Odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.
The Crimson Tide were unstoppable in the 2020-21 season, running the table with a 13-0 season culminating in a national championship. ’Bama had just one game that it won by fewer than 10 points.
Many players on that team made the jump to the NFL, including WR and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, RB Najee Harris and QB Mac Jones. But the Tide lead the nation with the top-ranked recruiting class for this upcoming season.
Alabama is bringing in seven five-star recruits and 15 four-star recruits to an already well-established program. Two notables come on the offensive line to provide max protection of the backfield in JC Latham, the second-ranked recruit in the country, and Tommy Brockermeyer, the No. 5-ranked recruit in the nation.
Now it’s common for freshmen to redshirt or have minimal playing time so this year’s recruiting class may not be the best measuring stick for a team’s upcoming success, but the Tide had the second-best recruiting class in 2020 and the best in 2019. Stepping in for Mac Jones at quarterback will likely be Bryce Young, the second-best recruit from the 2020 class.
Although there are plenty of options to lay your money on to win the title, there are two schools in particular that have my attention. The first is the Georgia Bulldogs, a team that has the fourth-best 2022 national championship odds at +650. The other is the Ohio State Buckeyes, the team that lost to Alabama in the 2021 national championship game.
I talked about Alabama having the best recruiting class in two of the last three years – well, it was Georgia that had the best one in 2020 and the second-best in 2019. The majority of those recruits come on the defensive side of the ball, notably Nolan Smith, the 2019 top recruit in the country on the edge, and cornerback Kelee Ringo, the No. 4 recruit in 2020. There’s experience in the backfield, so this team can cause a lot of issues.
As for the Buckeyes, they recruited edge rusher J.T. Tuimoloau, the top recruit in the 2021 class, and fellow edge rusher Jack Sawyer, the No. 4 recruit in the class. Offensively, the team has brought in several top-end receivers over the past few years. The question for me is who will be throwing the ball to these guys. The Buckeyes should be an interesting and scrappy team. With odds of +700, they are definitely intriguing.
While the blue-chip NCAAF programs are always hard to beat, Sam Howell and the UNC Tar Heels have some potential upside to surprise some teams this season.
Howell’s offense lost some key weapons to the NFL draft this year, but the squad opened well within the top 20 in most preseason polls, and even within the top 10 of USA Today’s ranking.
Among title contenders, UNC has a perfect schedule to rack up some signature wins while also not being faced with any unwinnable games. Key matchups come against Notre Dame (+6600) and Miami (+5000) in October, and the Tar Heels can position themselves as a top-10 team in the country with wins against both.
If North Carolina can win the ACC Coastal Division and advance to the ACC championship game, their title hopes would be pegged on a likely matchup with the Clemson Tigers. UNC still shouldn’t be seen as a favorite in college football championship odds, but they have the elite QB and schedule to make a push at the playoff.
When it comes to big events for any sport, you can bet months in advance. In this case, a futures bet is a wager made on which team will win the national championship. Each week, oddsmakers will update the odds to reflect how a squad is doing. If a team is plagued with injuries, their chances of making it to the final game slim down. A surging squad will see their odds skyrocket.
When you go to a college football sportsbook, you’ll see the betting lines laid out like this:
Unlike a traditional straight-up bet where there’s a clear favorite marked by the minus sign (-), ‘Bama is the fave since they have the lowest odds. The rest are considered underdogs.
If you believe that LSU has the greatest odds of winning the championship, and you bet $50 on them, you’d get a payout of $275 – your original $50 is returned along with your winnings of $225. On the other hand, if you’re looking at Georgia and think they’re going to turn it around and win it all, that same $50 would give you $750 – you get your $50 back, plus your prize of $700. Our odds calculating tool will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
When you see futures odds that you like, it’s best to jump on them early. As mentioned above, betting sites will adjust the odds as we get closer to bowl season and teams move up and down in the standings.
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark StaffTue, Aug 24, 6:57am
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