Betting Against The Spread Week 11
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Betting Against The Spread Week 11
The fickle nature of the NFL was illustrated this past weekend. If you woke up from a coma, you'd think Peyton Manning was the worst, Kirk Cousins was the best and Andy Dalton wasn't clutch. While that last one may be true, the first two absolutely are not. The New Orleans Saints could probably find a way to let Baylor score 21 points on them. I also think we've written Manning off two or three times this season and somehow he's come back with good games each time. We'll see how many of those Broncos fans chirping and complaining will be happy with Brock Osweiler's output.
Tony Romo is slated to make his long-awaited return for this one as the Cowboys try to snap their losing streak. Dallas' offense has stalled, scoring just 71 points in the last five games. The running game figures to struggle against a Miami defense that has held opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground in four of the last five. You can't deny the toughness that the Fins have had since changing coaches. They are coming off a win in Philadelphia and have to be feeling pretty good. The offense did just enough to win and should be happy to be home after three straight on the road. Miami has gone under in 20 of its last 26 against the NFC East. The Dolphins also have covered each of their last two against those four teams. I think we are getting good value with the home team. Romo's return doesn't solve all that ails the Cowboys. SELECTIONS: Under 47 and Miami Pick
Baltimore has had the worst luck this season following another tough (and controversial) loss, this time to the Jaguars. The Rams come to town and they were undressed by the Bears last week. The Ravens have moved the ball well on offense although they'll look to get a little more from the ground game. St. Louis has sprung some leaks on defense, allowing its last two opponents to pile up 298 yards rushing combined. The Rams have a made a quarterback change, turning to Case Keenum, but he doesn’t figure to be the catalyst to jumpstart this anemic offense. Todd Gurley isn't as effective with eight and nine defenders in the box. The Rams have failed to cover in 13 of their last 20 road games and in an odd trend are 10-26 ATS in road games where the total is between 38.5 and 42. SELECTION: Ravens -2
The aforementioned Brock Osweiler gets the call at QB as the Broncos travel to Chicago to play the Bears. Osweiler's appearance means this team will probably get a bit more conservative. The problem with that is Denver is only averaging 86 yards per game on the ground. The offensive line just hasn't opened too many holes. The Bears’ defense is playing a lot better than we thought this unit would fare. So is Chicago's offense with Jay Cutler at the helm. Denver's defense didn't play poorly against the Chiefs even with having to defend a couple of short fields. Money is streaming in on the Bears because of the quarterback change. If it keeps moving and we get Denver at anything over two points, take the road team. SELECTION: Under 41.5
It's been a rough year for Seattle, who has already lost two games at home. The Seahawks figure to get real healthy against the 49ers, whose offense is in bad shape. You've got Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, a banged-up Carlos Hyde leading the ground game and a wide receiver corps without Anquan Boldin most likely. Seattle won 20-3 in San Francisco on Oct. 22 in a game that saw the 49ers put up just 142 yards of offense. This is almost like the Seahawks earlier home against the Jimmy Clausen-led Bears, which they won 26-0 as a 16-point favorite. The 49ers have already lost road games by 40 and 21 points. SELECTION: Seattle -12.5
- I don't understand the Raiders love. They have sprung some leaks defensively and are now without Aldon Smith, who had been
playing well. This week Oakland's flying east and taking on a suddenly confident Lions team. I'm guessing there are some who think Detroit will be too full of themselves after winning in Green Bay? Matthew Stafford should have a field day against a banged-up Raiders D. Still, it's hard to trust the Lions in a situation that they should win.
- I really wanted to take the Packers in their game against the Vikings. It's the perfect time to get the better offense and a defense that's capable of a lot more. Minnesota has won five straight and is a covering machine right now. The Vikings are doing it with a real good run game ( Adrian Peterson ) and a defense that is playing well despite forcing just two turnovers in the last four games. If the Packers can stack the box against Peterson, then they should be able to bottle up the Vikes. This is the type of game that Aaron Rodgers wins. Strong lean to the road team.
- Man, the Sunday night game features so many trends and things to consider. You've got a Bengals team that picked up its first loss on Monday night and are traveling on a short week out west to face an Arizona team that is flying high after a win in Seattle. Cincinnati's defense is rolling right now, holding the last three opponents to just 10 points each. The Cardinals present a whole new challenge with their potent aerial attack and a defense that is hot in its own right. I really like the under in this one although I thought the game against the Seahawks also was an easy under. Lean to the under in this one.
— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt .
After their big Monday night win, Jimmy Garopplo and the San Francisco 49ers are near-touchdown favorites on the road against Jacksonville
A half-dozen NFL upsets in Week 10 likely led to a painful exercise in picking against the spread. That was certainly the case for Athlon Sports' esteemed panel. You can check out the carnage below, all you need to know is that three touchdown-plus favorites lost and we had our first tie!
So with everyone licking their wounds (and staring at their lighter wallets), what does Week 11 have in store? There could be a handful of heavy favorites installed but otherwise the bulk of the slate is projecting a lot of close games. But as last week painfully showed us, just when you think you have this league figured out...
Here's how Athlon's own Rob Doster ( @AthlonDoster ), Steven Lassan ( @AthlonSteven ), and Ben Weinrib ( @benweinrib ), see Week 11 playing out when it comes to picking against the spread.
Teams on bye : Denver, Los Angeles Rams
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (SNF)
*Season total does not include Week 1. Spreads are subject to change.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) motions to the crowd while playing the Las Vegas Raiders during an NFL Professional Football Game Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John McCoy)
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by Chris Amberley
in
NFL Football
Week 11 continues on Sunday (November 21st), with a jam packed 13-game slate. Seven of the eight division leaders will be in action, including Dallas and Kansas City, who square off in the marquee matchup.
The Cowboys enter Sunday with an incredible 8-1 record against the spread, while the Chiefs have beaten the number just three times in ten tries.
Odds as of Nov. 18th at DraftKings and FanDuel .
That might lead you to believe that Dallas is the no-brainer play, but the SBD Formula, which has been red-hot all season, suggests otherwise.
Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point favorite , and that’s exactly where the line currently stands. The SBD Formula is calling for a convincing Chiefs victory, and it’s impossible to ignore Patrick Mahomes’ stellar against the spread record when KC is less than a field goal favorite.
My @SBD formula goes 2-3 on its top ATS picks in Week 10
26-17-2 on the season now https://t.co/7Zqsi95cFL
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 15, 2021
The 2018 MVP is 10-2-1 in his career when favored by 2.5 points or less, and is fresh off a victory in that exact same scenario. Last week as a short favorite, the Chiefs shredded Las Vegas for over 500 yards and 41 points. Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and 5 TD, and while the Dallas defense has been impressive so far, there are reasons to be bullish on them this week.
The Cowboys will be missing their top two pass rushers in DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. If KC wants to attack on the ground, Dallas ranks in 18th in run defense per DVOA, while their pass D is slightly overrated.
Randy Gregory joined DeMarcus Lawrence in the rehab line. Gregory will miss at least one more game with a calf strain since he is on injured reserve. pic.twitter.com/YSGLe8s35Z
— Todd Archer (@toddarcher) November 18, 2021
Everyone is enamoured with Trevon Diggs’ league leading 8 interceptions, but it’s worth noting he has the 114th best coverage grade per Pro Football Focus among corners.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are going to put up points, but it might not be as easy as some are projecting. The Chiefs are allowing just 15.6 points per game over their last five contests, and have held back-to-back opponents to two scores or less.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115), 1 unit
The Kyler Murray will he or won’t he play saga continues for another week. Arizona is currently a 2-point favorite over Seattle , which suggests he will start, but lots can change between now and Sunday.
From NFL Now: #AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray is practicing today, saying he feels close to returning. pic.twitter.com/bxkuiSjXkq
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 17, 2021
If Murray sits for a third straight game, this line will move heavily in the Seahawks’ favor, so it’s wise to lock it in now. Even if Murray does play, his injured ankle is obviously still an issue which will likely limit his mobility, and reduce his effectiveness.
Also working against the Cardinal offense is the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk still isn’t practicing and looks likely to miss a third straight game. All of a sudden, a three wide receiver set of Christian Kirk, AJ Green and Rondale Moore doesn’t look so imposing.
Seattle meanwhile, threw everyone off its scent with a miserable outing last week in Green Bay. Russell Wilson looked out of sorts in his first game back from injury, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance at home.
You know what I’m here for. pic.twitter.com/sNR1ipRBKL
— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) November 14, 2021
This is a game the Seahawks need to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Arizona can lose and still remain atop the NFC West. The SBD Formula is calling for a Seattle cover, but an outright win is definitely on the table as well.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 (-110), 1 Unit
Last, but not least, the SBD Formula is calling for not only a cover, but an outright upset in the New Orleans-Philadelphia game.
Now 🔥20-12🔥 on upset picks this season 💰+19.07 units💰 https://t.co/kpzQHaqQGb
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) November 8, 2021
The Eagles are currently 2-point favorites , despite not owning a single victory over an above .500 team. Philly has faced four teams ranked 14th or better per DVOA, and have lost each time by an average of 11 points.
New Orleans meanwhile, ranks eighth per DVOA (compared to 15th for the Eagles), and have excelled versus quality opposition.
Saints at +1 vs the Eagles after closing +3 vs the Titans… You're telling me the Titans, who are tied for the best record in the league, are only two points better than the Eagles? 🤔
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 17, 2021
The Saints have beaten two division leaders in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, as well as New England, who is among the fastest rising teams per DVOA. They’re 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season, and just covered versus Tennessee, the hottest team in the NFL.
Pick: New Orleans Saints +2 (-110), 1 Unit
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Team vs Carolina Panthers
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers
The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Week 11 in the NFL.
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Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO . Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
The "Vegas Whispers" sharp information is currently 50-41 ATS in the NFL in 2020, and 186-128-2 overall .
The Raiders are responsible for the Chiefs’ lone loss of the season, and it came at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 5. That win was the first for the Raiders in Kansas City since 2012, leading to a reported “victory lap” on the team bus around 1 Arrowhead Drive afterwards.
Here we are six weeks later and the 6-3 Raiders find themselves as 8-point home dogs vs these same Chiefs. The game opened up with Kansas City still 6.5-point favorites on the road, so the move to 8 is likely indicative of the report that several members of the Raiders defense are currently on the COVID-19 list.
There’s no lack of motivation in this
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