Betting Against The Spread Week 11

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Betting Against The Spread Week 11
N.F.L. | N.F.L. Week 11 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
N.F.L. Week 11 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
The Packers’ offense facing the Colts’ defense highlights a weekend filled with interesting matchups.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers take on one of the N.F.L.’s most stifling secondaries. Tennessee and Baltimore face off in a battle of struggling contenders. Kansas City looks for revenge against Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh tries to get to 10-0 for the first time in franchise history. There is a lot to like about this week’s schedule.
Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 11 , with all picks made against the spread. And while you wait for the action, get lost in the possibilities of the next seven weeks with The Upshot’s playoff simulator .
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts , 4:25 p.m., Fox
No team has allowed fewer yards per game than the Colts (6-3), who have also allowed the fourth fewest points per game among the N.F.L.’s 32 teams. Indianapolis has limited opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 78.9 — the best mark in the league — and has pulled down 11 interceptions.
Only two teams have averaged more points a game than the Packers, who are enjoying a magical season from their quarterback. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 26 touchdowns against just three interceptions, leading to an N.F.L.-leading passer rating of 116.4.
Strength against strength is always an intriguing matchup, and this game certainly qualifies.
The path to victory for Green Bay is fairly straightforward: Give Rodgers some time in the pocket and let him find wide receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a few home run throws. For Indianapolis, the key to keeping those wide receivers quiet is putting Rodgers on his back early and often.
It would be inaccurate to say the Colts’ offense and Packers’ defense are irrelevant in this game, and a few breaks for either of those units could go a long way to deciding the game. But the headliners are clear, and you won’t want to miss any of Green Bay’s passing downs, no matter how things go. Pick: Colts -2
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens , 1 p.m., CBS
In the closing scene of “Fight Club,” as a series of buildings tumble to the ground, the narrator looks at Marla and rather optimistically says, “You met me at a very strange time in my life.” That’s the general feeling as the Titans (6-3) visit the Ravens (6-3), with both teams hoping to brush off some recent failure and get back to being top contenders. Baltimore has lost two of its three games since its bye week and the team’s juggernaut of an offense has been held to 24 or fewer points in each game. Tennessee has lost three of four, with quarterback Ryan Tannehill having seen the most pronounced downturn of his tenure with the Titans.
What does that mean going forward? Potentially nothing. Baltimore still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and there is little reason to believe that Tennessee’s offense can’t return to a level of productivity that makes its mediocre defense largely irrelevant. But this week’s game will come down to which team can best emerge from its funk. That could easily go either way, but with the Ravens playing at home, they are the safer bet. Pick: Ravens -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders , 8:20 p.m., NBC
The last time these teams met, the Raiders (6-3) shocked the Chiefs (8-1) by beating them, 40-32, in Kansas City. It was a classic case of a top-rated team looking past a scrappy challenger, and Las Vegas made its division rival pay dearly for that indifference. The odds that Patrick Mahomes and his fellow defending Super Bowl champions make the same mistake again are slim.
“Any time you lose to anyone, the next time you play them you want to win the football game,” Mahomes told reporters this week. “We’ll be ready to go, I promise you that.”
The Raiders are coming off the most complete win of their season last week against the Broncos, and in an ideal circumstance might have been a real challenger for Kansas City in this one. But with the bulk of Las Vegas’ defense being forced to sit out the week of practice because of Covid-19 close contact protocols, slowing down the Chiefs seems like an impossible task. Pick: Chiefs -7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars , 1 p.m., CBS
Pittsburgh Coach Mike Tomlin described this as a “trap game” and said he has a “ridiculous level of respect” for Jacksonville. So should anyone expect this to be a good game? No. The Steelers (9-0) are dominating on both sides of the ball, while the Jaguars (1-8) have an inept defense and a rookie quarterback in Jake Luton who was not even expected to play this season. So why make this one of the best games of the week? Because Pittsburgh stands a good chance of becoming the N.F.L.’s first 10-0 team since 2015. Only 26 teams have begun a season with 10 straight wins. Six went undefeated for the regular season. Five finished with just one loss, nine with two losses and five with three losses. The worst a 10-0 team has ever finished was the 2015 Patriots, who went 12-4. Pick: Steelers -10
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos , 4:05 p.m., CBS
Five straight wins for the Dolphins (6-3) has Miami in line for a playoff spot, and the team seems to get more impressive on a weekly basis . Last week’s win over the Chargers was unexpectedly powered by the rookie running back Salvon Ahmed and Miami could be even stronger this week if Matt Breida is able to return from a hamstring injury. The Broncos (3-6), after a brief flirtation with relevance, have dropped three of their past four games while allowing an average of 36 points a game in that stretch. Visiting Denver is never easy, but Miami’s surge should continue. Pick: Dolphins -3
New England Patriots at Houston Texans , 1 p.m., CBS
This is one of the hardest games of the week to peg. The Patriots (4-5) are coming off a shockingly convincing win over Baltimore that has upended the general view that the team is a disaster. Was that a one-off? Is that game, combined with a fairly close win over the Jets the week before, enough to say New England is hot? Even a blowout win in this game wouldn’t truly answer that question as the Texans (2-7) have beat only lowly Jacksonville.
Deshaun Watson is so good that it’s impossible to rule out a dominant performance in which he drags his teammates kicking and screaming to victory. But that is slightly less likely than Cam Newton and the Patriots grinding out a fairly close win on the road. Pick: Patriots -2
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings , 4:25 p.m., Fox
Andy Dalton has cleared the N.F.L.’s concussion protocol and been taken off the Covid-19 reserve list, and his punishment for that good fortune will be having to start for the Cowboys (2-7). There remains a lingering belief that Dalton, who was at one point a borderline star for Cincinnati, could take advantage of his team’s riches at wide receiver and lead Dallas back to something near mediocrity. And there are few defenses more willing to make a quarterback look good than the unit for the Vikings (4-5).
Minnesota is the better team here regardless, is playing at home and could actually get better by emphasizing wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson more. If this game were in Dallas you might expect it to be close, but in Minnesota the Vikings should romp. Pick: Vikings -7
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints , 1 p.m., Fox
In a fairly surprising move, it appears the Saints (7-2) are planning to start Taysom Hill at quarterback on Sunday against the Falcons (3-6) rather than Jameis Winston. Hill, who has been a jack-of-all-trades for New Orleans over the last few seasons, has shown some promise passing but has been more valuable for his versatility running the ball, catching the ball and playing on special teams. Winston, meanwhile, has an electric arm but has often made head-scratching mistakes, leading to last season’s wild 33-touchdown, 30-interception performance for Tampa Bay — and an N.F.L.-record seven pick-6s.
The thought of seeing Hill under center for every snap seems far-fetched, but indications are that Winston will not be a part of the game-plan. And while both players have pluses and minuses, the Saints may want to just focus on running the ball with Alvin Kamara. This would likely have been a blowout if Drew Brees were healthy, but expectations should be downgraded some for what will undoubtedly be a more conservative approach. Pick: Saints -4.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns , 1 p.m., Fox
Carson Wentz has never been the same since a knee injury ended his 2017 season early. He wasn’t bad over the last two seasons, but any mention of his name and the M.V.P. award became a distant memory. This year he has taken a very long step in the wrong direction and by virtually every measure has been objectively bad. It wouldn’t be fair to blame everything on Wentz, as injuries and ineptitude have been a total team effort. But Philadelphia’s grip on the N.F.L.’s worst division is loosening, and if the Eagles are caught by the Giants , that would be fairly embarrassing.
The Browns (6-3) would do well to just run the ball all day with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and let their defense take advantage of a few mistakes. Keep the score low and tack on another victory, just as Cleveland did last week against Houston. Pick: Browns -3.5
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers , 1 p.m., Fox
Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater injured a ligament in his knee during last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, but currently it appears as if he will be able to start for the Panthers (3-7). That’s welcome news for a team that had been building some momentum heading into last week, and looked great until the game went sideways in the second half. Matthew Stafford is also expected to start for the Lions (4-5) despite having injured the thumb on his throwing hand.
The uncertainty with both quarterbacks makes this a tossup, with the advantage going to whichever team can keep their guy on the field longest. Pick: Panthers -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team , 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 46.5
A pair of No. 1 over all picks, separated by more than a decade of experience, will face off when Joe Burrow and the Bengals (2-6-1) visit Alex Smith and the Footballers (2-7). Burrow clearly has a bright future, and Smith has had a terrific career, but this game won’t have the best version of Cincinnati as running back Joe Mixon is still working his way back from a foot injury. If Cincinnati had its top runner, the team’s offense would likely have overwhelmed Washington, but as it currently stands this could easily go either way. Pick: Bengals +1.5
Jets at Los Angeles Chargers , 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers (2-7) have struggled to close out games this season, regardless of how good the offense has occasionally looked, and it would be hard to say the team hasn’t underperformed a bit compared to its preseason expectations. There are plenty of areas for concern, and with it still unclear if Joey Bosa will be cleared from the N.F.L.’s concussion protocol, the team’s defense could be considerably less intimidating than it normally is. All of those would be concerns in another week, when Los Angeles isn’t playing the Jets (0-9). A win for the Chargers is overwhelmingly probable, but the team’s noted late-game troubles make a large point spread risky. Pick: Jets +8.5
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers , 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Anyone who claims to know what is coming from the Buccaneers (7-3) each week is lying. Tampa Bay followed up a 3-point performance against New Orleans by scoring 46 against Carolina. In those games, Ronald Jones II went from three carries for 9 yards to 23 for 192. This year was supposed to be about suffocating defense and offensive consistency, but instead it has been defined by several weeks where the Buccaneers looked unbeatable, and two where they looked truly awful.
The Rams (6-3) don’t have as high a gear as Tampa Bay, but they are considerably more consistent. You can reasonably expect Los Angeles to get a fair amount of yards, both through the air and on the ground, and for the team’s defensive attack — led by Aaron Donald — to put significant pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback. Would that be enough to beat Tampa Bay? Sometimes. Pick: Rams +3
A closely-fought game between N.F.C. West rivals came down to the wire. Arizona, trailing by 7 in the final minute, had reached Seattle’s 27-yard line. The situation seemed ripe for the Cardinals (6-4) to pull off late-game magic, just as they did last week. But on a fourth-and-10 play with 38 seconds remaining, linebacker Carlos Dunlap of the Seahawks (7-3) beat his blocker, burst into the backfield and sacked Kyler Murray for what was effectively a walk-off defensive play.
We picked Cardinals +3 believing that Seattle’s porous defense would struggle to contain Murray. But on this day, Dunlap was up to that difficult challenge.
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Ravens -6.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Tennessee by at least 7 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
Bye weeks: Buffalo, Chicago, Giants, San Francisco

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Week 10 is in the books and Week 11 is here, so For The Win ’s Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz return to make their NFL picks. All odds courtesy USA TODAY Sports .
Steven: I was due for a bad week, and it came last week. The week after I swore off betting against the Patriots and on the Browns, both strategies did me in. Not sure where to go from here…
Charles: I beat Steven last week and have a shot at .500 overall. That still puts me (squints) 13 games behind him. Good luck to me with that.
(NOTE: The Buccaneers and Ravens spread wasn’t posted when we published.)
I do not know what to make of this Packers team. They aren’t very good, but it’s so hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers. It’s even harder to bet against the home team on Thursday night. Especially one that plays so well at home. Seattle’s defense will frustrate Rodgers and Russell Wilson will do enough to pull out a win.
I know I say weird things happen on Thursday nights, but even with Aaron Rodgers playing in a hostile environment against a pretty good Seahawks team, I think he ekes out a win for the Packers.
The Panthers defense does not look good, but the Lions offense is sinking after the Golden Tate trade and I’m not sure Detroit can slow down Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey.
Despite being at the wrong end of a blowout to the Steelers, I’ll take Carolina over a Lions team that’s trending the wrong way this season.
Pittsburgh is rolling on both sides of the ball. Sure, the Jaguars proved to be a tough matchup for the Steelers a year ago, but both of these teams are different in 2018.
When does a 6-point home underdog spread seem small to you? When your team just gave up 29 points to the Colts and now faces a juggernaut offense. I’m not backing Blake Bortles there, either.
The Titans look better of late, but their best wins this season have been away from home, and I’ll take Frank Reich in this matchup of rookie head coaches .
A coin flip — Marcus Mariota suddenly looks healthy, and the defense clamped down on Tom Brady. The Colts have figured out how to protect Andrew Luck and the defense is good enough. Still, I have to take the road team here by this much.
Washington just has too many injuries on the offensive line to block this Texans front. Both J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have a big day and the Houston offense pulls out a late win.
This one will be within a field goal. I just trust the Texans’ defense to keep Adrian Peterson relatively grounded and we know Alex Smith will have his usual 250-yard day.
So the Falcons let us down on the road last week, but they’re a different team at home. And I’m not ready to jump back on the Cowboys’ bandwagon after a win over a flawed Eagles team.
I’m done trusting the Falcons. They’re too inconsistent in spots where they should excel. So I’ll go with the Cowboys to pick apart the secondary after a huge win at Philadelphia.
I’m not crazy about betting on Rayn Fitzpatrick on the road, but Tampa Bay has more talent, and I could see a Fitzmagic day happening in the Meadowlands.
The ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ game of the week. I have to back the home team against a porous Bucs defense. The Giants actually looked like a decent football team on Monday, so maybe there’s a slight bit of momentum.
I’m not taking Vegas’ bait here. They want you to bet on a bad Cardinals team because the Raiders have been so bad. Arizona is not good enough to it to cover a spread this big. Oakland was a little feisty against the Chargers last week.
Feels like the Raiders have quit on 2018, which is pretty scary when you consider the reported contract Jon Gruden got from Oakland’s brass.
Ugh, am I really betting on Case Keenum against Philip Rivers? I guess I am. Los Angeles looks a little shaky last week, the Broncos are coming off a bye and have played teams close all season. That line is just a little too big for me.
Even if the Broncos aren’t that good, they keep games closer than 7.5 points — they’ve played five games that were won or lost by four points or fewer. So I’ll take the points against a division rival.
I’m not betting against this Saints team — which is the best in the league — for the rest of the season. Unless they lose, of course. Then I’ll re-adjust. Until then, ride this team.
The Eagles’ secondary is a nightmarish mess, which means Drew Brees could put up 50 points at home. Carson Wentz will try to keep up but he’ll fall short of covering.
I’m still not ready to trust Mitchell Trubisky in a big game. Not against a Mike Zimmer-coached defense. This defense is so much better with Everson Griffen healthy. Minnesota will take control of the NFC North.
I think Chicago’s D shuts down Kirk Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky’s ascension continues. The Bears are for real.
The game of the season. Both teams are going to score 40 points, but I just have a little more trust in Aaron Donald and the Rams defense to come up with a big play late.
The offenses cancel each other out, so which defense do you trust more? It’s the Rams’, plus they’re at home and not on a badly-damaged playing surface as they were supposed to be. Los Angeles by a field goal.
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Betting Against The Spread Week 11

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