Betting Against The Spread Nfl Week 1

Betting Against The Spread Nfl Week 1



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Betting Against The Spread Nfl Week 1

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Week 1 of the NFL season is in our sights, and that means it is time to visit the sportsbook of your choice to make our weekly round of NFL bets. Each week during the 2020 regular season, we will dissect the betting lines from Thursday to Monday, looking at the early betting market in the beginning of the week and culminating in content-specific deep dives, which will include spreads, totals, and prop bets, among others. Here are five betting lines to keep an eye on for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season (odds courtesy of FanDuel), and bookmark this page to keep track of all of our betting content!
The Packers getting 2.5 points is my favorite line of the week. For starters, on paper, the Packers are a far better team than the Vikings. While the acquisition of Yannick Ngakoue was a sexy one, and yes, it affects the pass rush/pass coverage interplay, but it doesn’t exactly fix the Vikings issues at cornerback, does it? The Packers were the fifth-best team in the NFL against the spread, going 11-7 in 2019 (including playoffs).
While the Packers may be thin at wide receiver outside of Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense has an advantage over Kirk Cousins and Minnesota’s offense, especially after the departure of Stefon Diggs. This shapes up as one of those intriguing, early-season divisional matchups with two teams who know each other. Talent typically weighs out.
Jarrett’s Pick: GB (+2.5):  Green Bay is simply the better overall team. I have more confidence in Preston and Za’Darius Smith along with the rest of a suddenly-vaunted Packers defense compared to Minnesota, and I think that ultimately, Green Bay will make more plays to win.
The Seahawks acquisition of Jamal Adams took them from a good team to a great team. While they were solid defensively, adding the All-Pro safety made them complete and more in line with the teams that have brought historical success to Pete Carroll and the Seahawks organization.
While the direction the Falcons are heading in suggests optimism, their holes on defense will more than likely be exposed by one of the best quarterbacks in the game: Russell Wilson. Seattle was also 2-1-1 against the spread as an away favorite in 2019, which ranked seventh in the NFL.
A line of 1.5 points may be too generous. You may be able to get away with betting an alternate spread of something in the neighborhood of Seattle (-4.5). Atlanta’s offense has potential, but Seattle is far more talented as a team and should be able to cover.
Jarrett’s Pick: SEA (-1.5):  Atlanta just has too many holes in their defense that Russell Wilson and company will exploit. Seattle wins somewhat convincingly.
The Patriots may be the most overrated team coming into 2020. Cam Newton has had just three winning seasons in eight full years as a starter. Plus, aside from his MVP year, he has been an average passer with below-average accuracy. Along with that, the Patriots have no tight ends, their receivers aren’t great, the offensive line was terrible last year, and their defense lost vital pieces.
The Dolphins finished 2019 with a respectable 9-7 record against the spread, including a Week 17 upset win in Foxborough. In addition, Miami finished 5-3 as away underdogs last season. Besides the fact that Miami produced against the spread in 2019, this pick is more about what the Patriots aren’t than what the Dolphins are. Miami is a young team that made splashes in free agency and the draft, and they will be competitors week in and week out if the recency effect holds true.
At any rate, this is an early-season divisional matchup. Historically, the time to catch the Patriots is early in the season before they find their stride.
Jarrett’s Pick: MIA (+6.5): I won’t pick the Dolphins to win outright, but I do think their skill position players are better than that of New England’s, and I expect this to be a game won by a field goal or less.
It was a bad year for the Chargers in 2019, especially for those who bet on them consistently as they went 4-9-3 against the spread, which was the second-worst in the NFL. That said, they will be facing a Bengals team fielding a rookie quarterback and an offensive line that is adjusting and has new parts. As a team with new guys up front and a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, the last person you want across the line of scrimmage is Joey Bosa, and that is who the Bengals will be going up against.
Although the Chargers will be without safety Derwin James, this is still an excellent defensive unit facing a rookie quarterback in his first start. I think Joe Burrow will be the Bengals’ guy for the next decade but expect early growing pains in his first outing. Bengals fans, don’t overreact if things get hairy.
Jarrett’s Pick: LAC (-3.5):  The Bengals will improve as the season goes on, but taking on one of the game’s best defense right out of the gates will lead to a slow start.
I think people forget just how well the Cardinals played the 49ers in their two meetings last season, losing both games by a combined 13 points, including a fluky defensive touchdown at the very end of one of the contests. Not only did the Cardinals play the 49ers well, but they also put up a fight in just about every game they played, finishing with the fifth-best record against the spread in regular-season games.
Although their passing defense was the worst in the NFL last season, the 49ers are predominantly a run-first team. I’ll be interested to see how the Cardinals’ newest weapon, Isaiah Simmons out of Clemson, impacts their defense schematically, and perhaps most importantly, with his attitude and aggressiveness.
Giving Kyler Murray a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins to pair with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald in the passing game should provide the Cardinals with one of the more dangerous air attacks in football. Combine that with the beginning of Kenyan Drake’s first full season in Arizona, and the Cardinals should have enough to keep this game closer than a touchdown.
Jarrett’s Pick: (ARI +7): The Cardinals are better than last season when they gave the 49ers two solid fights, and I expect them to keep this game close throughout, not to mention it’s an early-season divisional matchup with two teams that know each other.
9.5 points is a plethora to cover in professional football, especially against a team that has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Deshaun Watson — but if any team can do it, it’s the Chiefs. We saw them do exactly that to this very team in the playoffs last season, even after they spotted them a 21 point lead.
The Texans are now without DeAndre Hopkins, their defense is mediocre outside of J.J. Watt, and the Chiefs are basically running it back, only this time with a new weapon in Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU. I usually shy away from betting games with such big spreads, but with Kansas City, it feels almost routine.
Brandin Cooks is trending out for Thursday’s contest, and the Texans simply need all hands on deck on offense to keep pace.
Jarrett’s Lean: (KC -9.5):  While I may be hesitant to pick such a big spread, I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Kansas City and the points.
While the Rams are far from the same team that played in Super Bowl LII just 19 months ago, they still have an offensive guru head coach in Sean McVay and two elite defenders in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. If the Rams can become the balanced offensive attack they once were, the defense will be able to rest and be the formidable unit the Rams organization invested so much money and draft capital into developing.
Although Dallas added Everson Griffen to play alongside DeMarcus Lawrence, their secondary lost its top cornerback Byron Jones to the Dolphins, and we will see how they do against this dynamic passing game of the Rams. The Cowboys are typically a public betting darling, so in this contest, you have a “home underdog” and “fading the public” phenomenon aligning.
Jarrett’s Lean: LAR (+3): A trip to Los Angeles for the Cowboys makes me feel comfortable picking the Rams to cover the spread and take them at +3.
It will be interesting to see how Week 1 plays out after an offseason that featured no preseason games. How long will it take for teams’ rust to entirely flake away? Only time will tell. Once this week is over, we will have a clearer vision of how teams look, and that will make a world of difference when Week 2 rolls around.
Until then, whether you are betting on spreads or bizarre prop bets, bet safely — we found this list of  websites with legal betting  in the U.S. that are all safe to use — and best of luck. Welcome back!
Jarrett Bailey is a betting analyst at the Pro Football Network ( @PFN365 ). Follow the betting group @pfnbets and find all of our work here ! 
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The home of our top NFL Predictions. We dive into all of the key NFL stats, trends, matchup, team news, schedule and so much more to make the most informed NFL predictions for this week’s games through the regular season and NFL playoffs. Our NFL betting predictions will include NFL predictions against the spread, and NFL predictions in the over unders points markets for each game. 
Well, we made it to the end of the season. It’s sad to see the NFL winding down, but we’ve still got one great game left as the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes will get his chance at revenge on Tom Brady after falling to him in the AFC Championship game two seasons ago.
Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as a three-point favorite, which feels a bit light to me for several reasons. One factor to keep in mind here is that the game is being played in the Buccaneers’ stadium, although I don’t think there will be any home-field advantage to speak of. There will be a limited amount of fans at the game, and many of those tickets are being given away by the league. It’s not as if there is going to be a huge contingent of loud Bucs fans, and if anything I wouldn’t be surprised if Chiefs fans end up outnumbering them.
Moving to the on-field matchup, I don’t see how the Chiefs fail to have success throwing the ball. Tampa’s young secondary is exploitable, and every time they’ve faced a quarterback who can push it downfield they’ve been exposed. They might have looked good against an aging Drew Brees with a torn labrum, but the week before that they made Taylor Heinicke look like a franchise quarterback. The Chiefs won by three points when these teams played in Tampa during the regular season, but the game wasn’t as close as that final score indicates. Kansas City was up 17 in the fourth quarter before a couple of late Bucs touchdowns closed the margin. Remember, this is a Tampa Bay team that won all of one game against teams with winning records during the regular season and their playoff run has been very flukey thus far. Brady was mostly horrible against Green Bay as he tossed three interceptions, and it took an extreme series of miscues by the Packers for them to win that game. Their luck may finally run out here.
The under also makes some sense here because everybody seems to be underrating this Chiefs defense. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo used the regular season to tinker with his schemes, and he’s been a wizard so far in the playoffs. He just completely shut down Josh Allen and that vaunted Buffalo passing game, limiting Allen to just 6.0 yards per attempt– and that number actually got inflated a lot by garbage time. Again, Brady hasn’t actually played well the past couple of weeks; his opponents just gifted him countless easy opportunities. Against the Saints, Tampa Bay’s three touchdown drives went for a combined 63 yards because of the short fields they were given off turnovers. Playing the Chiefs now, they aren’t going to be so fortunate with the starting field position.
While I think the Chiefs’ offense will have opportunities for success, they aren’t going to cover this number by themselves. Tampa Bay’s pass-rush could potentially pose some problems, especially with Mahomes less mobile due to the turf toe he is dealing with. Those problems will only be exacerbated by the absence of left tackle Eric Fisher, who tore his Achilles in the AFC Championship game. This Kansas City secondary is legit and their pass-rush really came alive against Buffalo. The Buccaneers’ defensive front, with the recently healed Vita Vea, should wreak enough havoc to keep this one from going over a total in the mid-50s.
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The NFL season is a short one, compared to the majority of major sports, at just 17 weeks long the NFL regular season feels as though it’s over in a flash. There are up to 16 games each week and in a relatively short season, it heightens the importance of each game, increasing the interest and making NFL betting by far the most popular sport to wager on in the US. There is almost an infinite amount of ways to wager on a game, but the most popular wager amongst NFL bettors is Against the Spread betting, where you’re taking a team to win by more or lose by less than the spread set by the oddsmakers. Aside from the NFL Against the Spread markets, other popular markets include over unders, parlays , prop bets , daily fantasy sports, or even scoreboard squares, there is a wager type for every kind of football fan.

By some margin, the most popular wager amongst NFL bettors, and is unique in that it is widely discussed amongst sportscasters and the media leading up to the matches each week in the NFL. With this type of NFL bet, you’re not simply picking the winner of the game, but for a team to either win by the spread line such as Green Bay -5, where the Packers must win by 6 or you can take the Underdog Pick, and wager on the Packers’ opponents, let’s say the Bears, at +5 so they can either win outright or lose by up to 4 for your ticket to cash. You can also get a push in the ATS markets, where the spread gets it spot on. In the example above, if the Packers win 28-23, regardless of which side of the line you bet its a tie, and your stake is returned as a push. Our expert NFL handicappers will post our NFL Prediction against the spread alongside our previews for every NFL game each week.

NFL over under predictions is a great option for NFL bettors that are either unsure on which team they think will win, or would rather wager on the game as a whole, rather than one team. Rather than betting on one team or another, you’re placing a wager on the combined points totals of the two teams, and whether it will end up over or under the points total line. The NFL over under predictions is an exciting watch because every play and point counts right until the end of the fourth quarter, that garbage-time field goal or touchdown can be the difference in the over or under hitting. So much goes into an NFL over under prediction from team news to schematic matchups, weather conditions, as well as all of the statistical analysis our handicappers conduct, bringing you the best NFL over under predictions throughout the season.

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams are only looking to win by one and not to cover the spread. Your research could have you on the right side, your team can even win but lose against the spread. Therefore a lot of bettors prefer to keep it simple with a Moneyline wager, here you’re simply betting on a team to win, with no spread involved. Moneyline is also a great way to get better value on underdog picks if you think they’ll not only win on the spread but also outright. The 2019 season was the year of the underdog, where we saw 90 underdogs win on the Moneyline, and you’ll be getting much bigger odds on these Moneyline picks. We highlight all of our top Moneyline NFL predictions throughout the season from those favorites we see as locks and value, to those barking dogs at tasty odds.

Nfl score predictions are a great way of determining which markets you think may be right for that particular game. Lots of statistical research and number crunching goes into predicting the score of an NFL team but it can give you an edge before looking at the odds, lines, and bets on offer. Check out our NFL Computer Picks page where our computer looks at up to date NFL stats and a whole host of game-specific information to produce the best NFL score predictions for every game.

While some sites only focus on those marquee matchups each week, the games when the prime time lights are shining, here at Pickswise we cover every game with our NFL predictions this week. Finding those under the radar matchups that won’t attract as much attention can often bear the sweetest fruits. These matchups can often offer great value odds on markets, and our NFL predictions for this week consider this. Whether it’s an NFL prop bet or a points line that we think may be good value, we will be on hand to make the most of every game on the NFL schedule. Our NFL predictions this week is a great place to get the low down on all of the NFL action this week, and how our experts see them shaping up.

Another great way to wager on the NFL is through the futures markets and playoff predictions. These markets offer longevity, with an entire season or remainder of the season still to play for, where a straight wager or a weekly NFL parlay bet , is all over in a day. The most popular NFL futures bets include teams to win it all with Super Bowl bets, as well as divisional and conference champions, or a team’s season win total.

Before the 2020/21 NFL season kicks off we’ll be preview all the top futures markets, including playoff predictions and those mentioned above. As well as our pre-season NFL predictions, we’ll be closely monitoring the NFL landscape week to week and highlighting any NFL futures bets as the season and playoff picture begins to take shape. 

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