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ATS data has no predictive value at all
Successful point spread betting is a marathon, not a sprint.
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Home » Football Betting » Point Spreads
There are several different types of football wager you can place,
and two of them are significantly more popular than the others.
The most popular of all is the point spread wager, followed by
the totals wager. In this article, we’re focusing on the point
spread.
Before you continue reading, if you’re interested, we have put together a short video to help you better understand point spreads.
If you have any interest at all in betting on football, then you
really should know how to bet the point spread effectively. It’s not
necessarily the “best” type of wager in terms of the potential for
winning money, but it’s relatively simple and does present some
profitable opportunities if you know what you’re doing.
On this page we teach you the basics of betting football point spreads. We explain how they work, and why
they’re so popular. We also explain the challenges involved in making money from them. Finally, we offer
some tips and strategy advice for placing wagers of this type.
The theory with point spreads is that a wager on either team to win a football game is as close to a 505/50
shot as possible. You’re not actually betting on which team will win the game, you’re betting on which team
will “cover the spread”. The favorite has to win by at least a certain number of points for a wager on them to
be successful, and the underdog has to lose by less than the same number of points for a wager on them to
be successful.
Another way to view it is that, for the purposes of the betting, the favorite has points deducted from their
score and the underdog has points added to their final score. The number of points varies, depending on the
gap in quality between two teams. If one team is much stronger than the other, the number of points can be
quite high (a big spread). If the two teams are more evenly matched, the number of points is low (a small
spread).
Here’s an example of a point spread that a bookmaker or betting site might offer for a football game
between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Bronco.
The +6 for the Steelers means that they’ll have six points effectively added to their score. They’re the
underdog here. The -6 for the Broncos means that they’ll have six points effectively deducted from their
score, as they’re the favorite. You can choose to bet on the Steelers with their points advantage, or on the
Broncos with their points deduction. The following outcomes are possible.
That, in essence, is all there is to betting football point spreads. All successful wagers are paid out at the
relevant odds, which are typically -110. The odds can vary, but they’re almost always fairly close to even
money. One further thing we should mention is that spreads will often include half a point. So, for example,
you might see a team at +6.5. This makes a push impossible.
It’s difficult to say for sure why point spreads are so popular, but there are probably a number of reasons. We
suspect that the following are the most relevant for the majority of bettors.
The first reason listed here applies primarily to recreational bettors. Those who are serious about their
betting don’t really care what the odds are per se, they are primarily concerned with whether value exists or
not. And value can exist in both heavy favorites and complete outsiders in the right circumstances. For those
that bet just for fun, though, the concept of value is largely an irrelevance. They just want to know that they
have a fair chance of winning their wagers, and that’s exactly what point spreads offer. Even if you just picked
teams at random you could expect to win close to 50% of your wagers over the long run.
The second reason is also an appealing one for recreational bettors. Although most of them do want to win
money, of course, they’re not generally bothered about having to think too much about their betting. It’s all
about the fun, and so wagers that are nice and simple are ideal for them. Point spreads are an easy way to
throw a few bucks on a game, without having to put in a great deal of effort.
Making lopsided games more interesting is a clear advantage of the point spread, to all types of bettors.
Without this type of wager, there would rarely be much fun or value in betting on games where there is a
very clear favorite. Backing the favorite would offer very low odds, to the extent that it probably wouldn’t be
worth it, and the underdog would be so unlikely to win that there’d be no point in backing them either.
The final reason mentioned here is actually not a good reason to bet football point spreads at all. Many
people do believe it’s a relatively easy way to make money, but the reality is that it is not. We’ll now explain
why.
Seeing as we’ve said that you have a roughly 50% chance of winning a point spread wager even if picking a
team at random, you could be forgiven for thinking that with even a little bit of knowledge you should be able
to make money from this type of wager. You may well be able to, but it’s certainly not easy. There are two
main reasons for this.
If you’re not familiar with vig, please read our article on how bookmakers make money . Very briefly though,
vig is basically a commission that bookmakers charge. It’s effectively built into the odds, which is why point
spread wagers typically are at odds of around -110. You’ve got to risk $110 to win $100, which means you
have to win more than half of your wagers just to break even.
And winning more than your half of your wagers is tough, because the bookmakers are generally very
accurate when setting their lines. The spreads they publish are consistently very close to reflecting what
actually happens in games. This makes it very difficult to regularly predict which team is going to cover the
spread in a game.It’s certainly rare that you’ll see games where the outcome is obvious enough that you can
genuinely state with real confidence that one or the other team is going to cover.
There is an argument to say that there is little strategy involved in betting football point spreads these days.
This is primarily because of what we’ve outlined above, in that the lines are set so tightly by bookmakers that
football point spreads are basically coin flips. However, our view is that they can be profitable with the right
approach.
For one thing, bookmakers are not infallible. Although they’re very good at what they do, they still get it
wrong from time to time. And, even when they don’t, it’s still possible to get a high enough win percentage to
effectively “beat the vig”. It’s not easy, but it can be done.
We round off this article with some tips and strategy advice that may help you to get better results when
betting football point spreads.
This advice applies to virtually any form of football betting really. If you’re going to make money, then you
need to need to understand what’s involved in handicapping football games.A lot of bettors don’t bother to
learn about handicapping, often simply because they believe it’s really complicated. It’s not. There are some
complicated aspects to it, yes, but the fundamental concept is relatively straightforward.
In fact, there’s a very good chance that you’re already handicapping games without even realizing it.
Handicapping doesn’t have to involve using amazingly advanced scientific systems, it can be as simple as
taking into account a few factors that are likely to affect the outcome of a game and then working out where
the value lies. There’s obviously a bit more to it than that, but that’s basically what it’s about.
Please take the time to read our article explaining how to handicap football . We can almost guarantee
that it will teach you at least some aspects of football betting that you’re not aware of.
Statistics can be very valuable when betting football spreads. There are certain statistics in particular that
canreally help you compare two teams and make informed judgements about how they are likely to perform
against each other. However, there are other stats that are relatively useless. This doesn’t stop some bettors
relying on them though.
One such stat is a team’s ATS (against the spread) record. This basically refers to a team’s performance
against the lines set by the bookmakers, rather than their actual results. Let’s look at some hypothetical data
to explain this further. Here’s a team’s results of the first six games of the regular season, along with their
spread for each of those games.
In the first game, the team was -3 on the spread, so technically “should” have won by three points. It lost, so
it failed to cover the spread. It won the next game, but only by five points when it was -6 on the spread. So,
again, it failed to cover the spread. In the following game it won by 12 when -7 on the spread, so it did cover
the spread here. In the following three games it failed to cover the spread again, despite winning two of them.
Now, a lot of bettors would read a lot into this. The team has only covered the spread once in six games,
despite a record of 4-2 on the field. The seemingly obvious conclusion here is that backing this team on the
spread is a bad idea. This is not necessarily true though, for one simple reason.
That’s right. The ATS data for a team is one of those instances where the numbers really do lie. The fact that
a team has been failing to cover the spread for the majority of its games means absolutely nothing in terms
of how likely it is cover to the spread in the future.
You’ll hear advice contrary to this, but please ignore it. Relying on ATS data to make future predictions is a
big mistake.
There is pretty much a 0% chance that you’ll be able to maintain a good win rate if you bet the spreads on
every single football game. Being selective is absolutely vital if you want to win consistently. The more games
you bet on, the harder you’ll find it to maintain a high enough win percentage. And your win percentage is
everything when it comes to betting football spreads. As we’ve already stated, you’ll mostly be betting at
around -110 and will need to win above 50% of your picks just to overcome the vig.
Trying to win a ton of bets each and every week is a recipe for failure. You need to be patient and wait for
the right opportunities. Unless you are an absolute genius (in which case you don’t need our help anyway),
at best you’ll find just a handful of games where there’s a good reason to bet the spread. There will likely be
some weeks where there are no good spots at all, and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with saving your
money and waiting for better opportunities.
There are certain types of games that you should generally try to avoid too. These are as follows.
Please note that we’re not saying you should NEVER bet the spread in games falling into the above
categories. Just be cautious of them. Games between very closely matched opponents are notoriously difficult
to predict, and games involving hyped or popular teams often have very misleading lines. Games with
double digit spreads are risky because there’s always a chance that the favorite will coast through a game
once they’ve all but secured the win. They may be easily capable of winning by ten or more points, but that
doesn’t mean they’re going to give it their all to do so.
Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.
There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.
Please note that we’re not saying it’s easy to win money betting on college football and the CFL. We’re just
saying that there’s certainly an argument that it’s not as hard as the NFL. You’ll need to make sure you know
as much as possible about the relevant teams and players though. That’s where you can potentially gain an
edge over the bookmakers.
Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.
There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.
You can find more detailed strategy advice for this type of wager in our articles on NFL teasers and college
football teasers .
Many bettors focus solely on the NFL, and this is basically making things a lot harder than they need to be.
Finding value on NFL games is very difficult, due to the tight lines mentioned earlier, and when there is value
it doesn’t tend to last very long. This is because there are so many people looking for the right spots. As soon
as a bookmaker or betting publishes an attractive line, sharp bettors will be on it almost immediately. The
line will then be moved accordingly, and the value will disappear.
There is regularly more value to be had in college football and even the Canadian Football League, as the
bookmakers are not generally quite as expert on those games. This means there’s more opportunities to
find good spots. The fact that there are less people betting also means that those good spots don’t tend to
disappear quite so quickly.
Spread betting - Wikipedia
Football Point Spreads - How and Why to Bet Point Spreads
Point Spread Betting Explained - How it Works | 888sport NJ
Football Spread Betting - Bet on Football Spreads - Sporting Index
Football Spread Betting | Spreadex | The Spread Experts
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A ' point spread ' references the spread of points when two teams compete – one being the favorite and the other being the underdog. Point spreads are popular options in sports betting; they even the playing fields.
Bookmakers calculate a points total – point spread – that can be added/subtracted to the end result of the match. By adding this point spread, it is possible to determine whether the sports bettor won or lost the bet. Point spread betting is extremely popular in football and basketball.
No doubt you're eager to learn more about point spread betting – let's get started!
As a sports bettor, you are going to come across many different odds and stats. The point spread is one of the most common ways to reflect odds at a bookmaker.
Many bettors can identify a point spread, but they don’t exactly know what it means. This guide is filled with many useful betting tips to help you understand point spreads, puck lines, money lines, and run lines.
In simple terms, a point spread is effectively a median number calculated by a bookmaker when 2 teams are competing against one another. The goal is to spark interest in the favorite and the underdog.
If one team is expected to win, the odds need to reflect enough enticement for people to place bets on that team. Conversely, if one team is the underdog the odds need to be attractive enough to generate bets to counter all the bets on the favorite.
Next time you’re looking at the NFL odds for the upcoming week, and you see the point spread between two teams, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints, you’ll understand what it really means. Consider the following:
In sports betting lingo, ‘the chalk’ is the favorite team. This team will always have a (-) value alongside it. In our example, Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the favorites to win by 3.5 points in this game. The underdog in this game is New Orleans. The Saints have a +3.5 value. You will notice that both teams have a -120 value associated with them. We will explain this in further detail as we go.
Since the point spread is 3.5 points, a bet on the Buccaneers would be placed if you believe they can win by at least 4 points or more. In the above example, if Tampa Bay wins the game by margin of 20-14, then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the match and they cover the spread (they win by 6 points).
In case you're wondering what does cover the spread mean, here's a quick explanation for you: When a team covers the spread, they stay within the points that have been allocated to them by odds makers. In the above example, Tampa Bay Buccaneers beats New Orleans by a margin of 6 points – they covered the spread of 3.5 (they needed to win by at least 3.5 points).
However, the Buccaneers may win the NFL game and lose if they don't cover the point spread. For example, if the final score is 20-17 they win by 3 points but lose the point spread of at least 3.5 points. The New Orleans Saints have remained within the 3.5-point spread.
A quick way to understand how this works is as follows:
Final Score – [Favorite Team Score (20) minus Favorite Value (-3.5)] = 16.5
In the above example, 16.5 is less than the 17 points scored by New Orleans.
Take the Underdog Total (3.5) + Underdog Score (17) = 20.5
In the above example, 20.5 is more than the 20 points scored by Tampa Bay.
The team that has more points wins.
Favorites often win games straight up (SU) but fail to cover the spread. In sports betting lingo, this is known as losing against the spread (ATS).
If we look at this from the perspective of the underdog team, this time with a + 4.5-point spread on the New Orleans Saints, the following is evident:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, New Orleans Saints 14 + 4.5 = 18.5. In this example, the Saints lose the game straight up, and they lose against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, New Orleans Saints 17 + 4.5 = 21.5. In this example, the Saints still lose the game straight up, but they win against the spread.
In the above example, you will see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints both have -120 next to them. The -120 is known as the vigorish, or the juice – that’s the fee charged by the bookmaker for allowing you to place bets on these teams.
Typically, sports bettors pay 10% to the bookmaker, the equivalent of a brokerage fee. In our example, the figure is -120, and it indicates that you must risk $120 to win $100.
Sometimes, the vigorish can be reduced to a lower figure like -105, meaning that you need to risk a little less win that same $100.
The example below clearly illustrates how this works:
If you see -6.5 (-108), then you only need to bet $108 to win $100. This translates into a savings of $2. If you happen to see -6.5 (-103), then you only need to bet $103 to win $100. The lower the negative number, the better for the bettor.
Successful sports bettors are often found shopping for the best odds at the lowest risk. This is true of money line betting and point spread bets.
This price shopping is about getting value for your bets, and it’s common with professional bettors. Think of it in the same way as being able to buy an identical NBA Jersey for $108, or $103 – which one would you pick?
Let's look at two iconic NFL teams; the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles . We have assigned odds for illustrative purposes:
Recall that with spread betting, the (-) indicates which team is the favorite to win, and the (+) indicates which team is the underdog. The (-) effectively removes 10 points from that team, leveling the playing fields to make it a more equitable bet. At the same time, odds makers have given the Miami Dolphins (+) 10 points because they are the weaker team a.k.a. the underdog.
In this example, spread betting odds indicate that a bet on the Miami Dolphins will pay out if they beat the Philadelphia Eagles by more than 10 points, while a bet on the Philadelphia Eagles will pay out if they lose by less than 10 points.
Sometimes, the bookmaker will not show the odds for the underdog, but it is assumed to be the opposite number of the favorite.
When you place an NFL point spread bet, you will win if the final result of the sports match, with the point spread factored in satisfies the bet requirements.
Assuming the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins example above, with a bet on the Philadelphia Eagles, you will win if the Eagles beat the Dolphins by at least 10 points. That (-) 10 is the minimum number of points that the Philadelphia Eagles must be ahead of the Miami Dolphins at the final whistle.
If the final score is Philadelphia Eagles 42-21 Miami Dolphins, clearly there is a 21-point victory margin so the Philadelphia Eagles win by more than 10 and the bet pays out. The Philadelphia Eagles covered the spread.
If you decide to bet on the Miami Dolphins, they can lose up by up to 10 points and still win the bet. If the final score is Philadelphia Eagles 42-33 Miami Dolphins, there are 9 points separating the teams. Clearly, Miami Dolphins have lost the game, but when we add +10 to the final score, it is Philadelphia Eagles 42-43 Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins have won this game with the point spread factored in, and your bet will pay out. The Miami Dolphins covered the spread because they stayed within 10 points. That's how you win with NFL point spread betting!
If you win your point spread bets, you all received your original stake of $110 + the $100 you won on the point spread for a grand total of $210.
Ready to try point spread betting in NFL games?
If you bet on the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins , and you lose the point spread bet, you will forfeit your $110. The bookmaker will then receive the additional $10, finishing in the money for that bet.
Even if you were to place a new bet on another NFL game and bet $110 and win $100, the bookmaker still gets to keep that additional $10 and end up ahead.
All new bettors at 888sport NJ can qualify for a Free Bet No Deposit , so feel free to put your sports betting prowess to the test.
Let's use the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins example to illustrate how a Tie result affects your point spread bet. If the final score is Philadelphia Eagles 30 – 20 Miami Dolphins, there is a 10-point differential between the teams.
Since the Philadelphia Eagles need to win by more than 10 points, and the Dolphins need to lose by less than 10 points, the result is a Tie or a Push. In this case, the bookmaker will simply refund your money. Since neither the Philadelphia Eagles nor the Miami Dolphins covers the spread, there is no winner.
PK is sports betting lingo for Pick’em. It is a reference to even money bets in point spread betting. In this case, there is no favorite, and there is no underdog. The point spread is effectively 0.
When you place a PK bet, the ‘point spread’ is irrelevant; you're simply betting on one team or another to win the game.
It doesn't matter what the winning margin is; only the winning team matters. Extrapolating from our example of Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins , you can easily see a PK match up if it is listed as follows:
Philadelphia Eagles – PK (-110), Miami Dolphins – PK (-110) advertised.
You have to bet $110 to win $100 on either team.
Remember the Tie result we spoke of earlier? That is known as a Push in sports betting. This is a common outcome with NBA point spreads and NFL point spreads. Whenever a sports event, game, or match ends in a draw, and a spread was involved, the outcome is known as a Push.
You will always get your money back in sports betting when a Push results, provided that the final result lands on the listed point spread.
Absolutely! It's entirely possible to bet on point spreads for the first quarter, the second quarter, third quarter, or the fourth quarter. You can also bet on point spreads for the first half, or the second half – it's your call.
Odds makers routinely set point spreads for different parts of the match. These odds are changing all the time, and you as the sports bettor must decide which team will be ahead, or behind, at specific checkpoints.
Using our example of Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins with a first-quarter spread:
Clearly, the Philadelphia Eagles are favorites to lead at the end of the first quarter with 3 points or more. The Miami Dolphins are 3-point underdogs, indicating that they need to be ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles by more than 3 points, or not trail the Philadelphia Eagles by less than 3 points at the end of the first-quarter.
Come on over and enjoy our full spread of NFL betting options!
NBA point spreads and NFL point spreads are the most common applications for spread betting in sport. In basketball and football, odds makers don't have preset limits on the margins of victory/defeat for these sports.
When it comes to NHL and MLB betting, point spreads are also used, but they are known by different terms.
In hockey and baseball, the terms puckline and runline are used. They are typically set at -1.5 or +1.5. As with basketball and football, the (-) indicates the favorite team, and the (+) indicates the underdog. You will notice that the number – 1.5 – is much lower than you would see in NBA point spreads and NFL betting lines . The reason is attributed to much lower scoring in these sports.
‘Puck Line Bets’ or ‘Puckline Bets’ are the hockey equivalent of NFL point spread bets or NBA point spread bets. They are also similar to ‘Runline’ bets in baseball which we are going to address shortly.
In the NHL, favorites are given (-)1.5 odds and underdogs are given (+)1.5 odds. The puckline can be tailored accordingly, depending on how well the favorite is performing and how poorly the underdog is performing. The 1.5 goals standard in NHL bets is used because hockey is typically not a high-scoring game.
‘Run Line bets’ or ‘Runline bets’ are used in MLB games. These types of bets are far less popular than money line bets for MLB betting, but still an important form of betting for baseball fans.
With Run Line bets you must pick a baseball team, with the Run Lines at 1.5. When the Run Line is 1.5 you will bet on your favorite team to win by at least 2 runs+. Alternatively, you will bet on the underdog to lose by 1 run, or to win the baseball game. As with Puckline bets, the (-) indicates the favorite and the (+) indicates the underdog.
Check out our NHL betting and MLB betting at 888sport!
Handicapping is a term commonly used in sports. NFL handicapping in sports betting lexicon means ‘leveling the playing fields’ so that both NFL teams have odds worthy of betting on. The strong team has some points ‘deducted’ to make it more difficult for them to be an easy win.
Hence the (-) point spread that is posted alongside the team. The weaker teams naturally aren’t expected to win against the stronger teams; that’s why they are gifted an advantage in the form of the (+) point spread. Oddsmakers or handicappers determine the NFL point spreads assigned to each team in a matchup.
Let’s refer back our example of the Philadelphia Eagles vs the Miami Dolphins:
Miami Dolphins +5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to win by 5 points, as indicated by the -5 posted next to their name. The Miami Dolphins are the underdogs, as indicated by the +5 posted next to their name. They are the ones getting the points to try and help them in this matchup. This is how the playing fields are levelled by oddsmakers.
Football point spreads indicate how oddsmakers level the playing fields between unevenly matched teams. Once the final results have been tallied, the spread is factored in and winners can be determined.
Remember: the negative sign indicates the favorite and the positive sign indicates the underdog.
Or, we could have the following NFL point spreads:
In all cases you will note that the stronger team has the negative sign in front of it, and the weaker team has the positive sign in front of it. Now that you understand NFL point spreads, you can confidently place a bet in NJ online at 888sport!
The purpose of basketball point spread betting is to determine by how much a basketball team will win a game or lose a game. Once again, there are favorites and underdogs to consider. Without the point spread, nobody would bet on the underdog.
Let’s take a look at some examples of basketball point spreads:
In this example, a bet on Oklahoma City requires them to win by 5 points in order for you to win the point spread bet. If the final score is 86-80 for Oklahoma City, then they win by 6 points. This is greater than 5 point spread on this basketball selection, indicating that your $110 bet will win $100 profit on Oklahoma City.
Conversely, if you bet on the LA Lakers to win – the favorites - and they lose by less than 5 points, or they win, you're in the money. A final score of 86-80 in favor of the LA Lakers is an automatic win for you. In other words, if the LA Lakers win by fewer than 5 points, the bet loses and if the LA Lakers win by 6 points or more, the bet wins.
Following from the Oklahoma City vs LA Lakers example above, let's assume the following point spread posted by an oddsmaker.
The bookmaker believes there is a 50% probability of Oklahoma City winning outright or losing by less than 5 points. The bookmaker also believes there is a 50% probability are the LA Lakers winning by more than 5 points.
We all know that the LA Lakers are expected to win this basketball game, but the odds are engineered to make it as even as possible. This is done to generate lots of interest in the sports match which a moneyline simply may not do.
If the LA Lakers beat Oklahoma City 110-102, they clearly covered the point spread of 5 points and won by more than 5. By subtracting the handicap from the score, we can see who the winners are.
If we bet on Oklahoma City, the handicap adds 5 points to their total, making it 110-107. Oklahoma City still loses the game and the bet.
A 7-point spread simply refers to the number of points posted alongside a team's odds of winning. When there is a 7-point spread, it means that the favorite team needs to win by more than 7 points to win the bet. It also means that the underdog can lose less than 7 points to win the bet.
When we have fractional point spread options like a 2.5-point spread, it means that the favorite team (-2.5) needs to win by more than 3 points to win the bet, and it means that the underdog can win or not lose the game by more than 2 points to win the bet.
That’s everything you need to know about the point spread in NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB sports betting.
Now you’re ready to get your Free Bet at 888sport NJ and start betting on your favorite sports.
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