Best Bets College Football Against Spread

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By Pete Fiutak |

November 13, 2020 9:09 pm

What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 11? Here you go. Enjoy.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 11 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West
LINE : WKU -8
ATS PICK: Southern Miss
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Start with this: WKU doesn’t score.
That’s been said several times in several ways over several articles over the the last year or so, but it remains true. The Hilltoppers haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of the last five games, and it’s not like every game has been against a killer defense.
Not scoring against BYU and Marshall is one thing, but a 13-10 win over Chattanooga and a 10-6 loss to Florida Atlantic were thrown in there. Southern Miss has been awful, and the defense is bad, and there hasn’t been enough scoring, and …
Until WKU can prove it can score, take the chance that it can’t win by more than eight.
Speaking of going with the flow until something changes …
Bet $1 on the Notre Dame money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if Notre Dame scores a touchdown this weekend.
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LINE : Fresno State -10
ATS PICK: Fresno State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Don’t make this any harder than it has to be. Utah State just went through a coaching change – firing Gary Andersen – and hasn’t shown anything positive so far in an 0-3 start.
Again, don’t think, just throw. The Aggies lost by 29, 31, and 25 to Boise State, San Diego State and Nevada, respectively. The offense has been totally inept, and the defense was hammered hard on the ground by the Aztecs and through the air by Nevada.
Fresno State struggled out of the gate, but rolled by Colorado State by 21 and UNLV by 13. Until Utah State shows something different, assume it can’t lose on the road to a decent team by fewer than ten.
LINE : West Virginia -3
ATS PICK: West Virginia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
West Virginia’s defense is really, really strong.
It’s fourth in the nation, No. 1 in the Big 12, and the team is fantastic at controlling the clock. Being at home seems to really, really matter, going 4-0 in Morgantown and 0-3 on the road. The Mountaineers haven’t been bad on the road, but the defense has been a rock at home.
It helps to get Eastern Kentucky, Baylor and Kansas in your house, but the win over Kansas State was dominant.
The problem? TCU is far better on the road, beating Texas and Baylor, and going 1-3 at home. However, like the Mountaineer defense in this to go along with another big day from QB Jarret Doege, who has thrown for 300 yards in four straight games.
LINE : UCF -26
ATS PICK: Temple
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Temple has shown you absolutely nothing so far. The offense hasn’t been good enough, the defense has been a huge disappointment, and the team overall hasn’t been able to get anything going. Going to the Bounce House to deal with UCF isn’t any cure for playing poorly.
However, the Owls have enough of a passing game to at least put up 28 points or more on the board. UCF is an unstoppable offensive machine, but the defense has been a disaster far too often, and the team has yet to beat anyone by 26. Temple will lose in a blowout, but those are way too many points to give away.
LINE : USC -14.5
ATS PICK: USC
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
USC got the bad game out of the way – at least that should be the case. The Trojans weren’t bad against Arizona State in the miraculous 28-27 win. On the contrary, the secondary was terrific, and the offense was able to move late when absolutely needed in the comeback.
As is the case across college football this year, every team seems to need a week or so to get ready. Blame the early start, blame the opener, blame Arizona State being that good, but USC is better than it showed.
How much has Arizona improved after losing its last seven games? It hasn’t – at least in terms of defensive personnel – and it hasn’t had a chance to get a game under its belt. USC has won seven in a row in the series and nine of the last ten. The passing game is about to bomb away.

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10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread ...
10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread ...
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The Ohio State Buckeyes are scheduled to play the Alabama Crimson Tide at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, January 11, 2021. The quarterbacks who are expected to start are Justin Fields and Mac Jones. This matchup report includes odds, betting trends and a free pick against the spread.
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The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are set to meet the UTSA Roadrunners at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, December 26, 2020. The men under center are Levi Lewis and Frank Harris. This Matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free college football pick for tonight.
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Doc's Sports Service is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States. Below you will find a list of 10 tips for finding a college football best bet from 10 of the top college football handicapping experts in the country. Our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. With nearly 50 years of experience, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports information industry.
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Bet against the triple option attack…
Keep an eye on early season totals…
Here are 10 tips for finding college football best bets from our team:
DOC'S SPORTS – If you want a good system for a college football best bet, then wager against a triple-option team where the opponent is coming off a long layoff. This is especially true for bowl games. Triple-option teams work best when teams do not have much time to prepare for them. Giving a team two weeks or a month to stop it usually spells trouble for the option offense. Teams must have a winning record to make a bowl game, and thus the triple option offenses are not facing a weak defense that they can just overpower. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
ROBERT FERRINGO - I can honestly say that every year, two or three of my biggest bets in college football are games that I decide on before the season even starts. And most of those games involve one of two situations. The first is a revenge motivation from the previous year. Revenge is a huge motivator in college football, a sport that is practically fueled by emotion because of the youth of the players. The second thing that I look for is the intersection of teams that I feel are overrated coming into the year against ones that are underrated. A perfect example is in 2016 when I hit one of my Game of the Year plays with Army (+6) over Navy. I actually predicted in JULY that this would be the year that Army would finally snap its 14-year losing streak by winning outright. Taking the points in that game was just a bonus, and the Black Knights won 21-17 in a game that was never really in doubt. Do your homework. Comb through the schedules before the season, and you will see some spots that will be begging for best bet action down the road.
ALLEN EASTMAN - College football seems like it is very unpredictable. It is not to me. When I am looking for a big play or a college football best bet, I like to look at long-term trends. I think that a lot of college football programs are fairly predictable over the long term. Some schools always play other schools tough. Some teams always struggle when playing on certain fields or in certain situations. And by following the trends, you can get a good idea about where to find value. Take my 8-Unit College Football Game of the Year in 2016, for example. I had Air Force (+8.5) over Boise State. Boise had gone just 7-15 ATS in November games the past few years and was just 1-6 ATS against teams that were over .500. That told me that they struggled late in the season against other good teams and the oddsmakers had them overvalued. Air Force, on the other hand, had gone 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with a winning record, so they were playing their best against the best competition. Air Force won the game outright, 27-20! There are top games and best bets each week that feature similar trends that are always pointing toward the right side. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
RAPHAEL ESPARZA - Betting totals in nonconference games at the start of the college football season is always a great spot to look for best bets each week. In September of 2016, Central Michigan hosted the UNLV and that total was a soft 55. That flew over the total as Central Michigan won 44-21. You can always find great value on totals with Big Ten schools playing smaller conference as well as SEC schools playing small conferences. The key to playing totals early in the season is playing them early – right when they get posted - or waiting to the last minute for the wise guys to move your number and then you can bet it on Friday night or Saturday morning. It depends on your side. But anticipating number movements in these early season college totals is an important part of making them pay out in top plays.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS - - Finding a best bet in college football varies from handicapper to handicapper. Many will try and find the "look-ahead" or the "let-down" spot. Others will follow a tried and true system that they have been playing for years. The conglomerate here at Strike Point Sports looks for that perfect spot when one team, led by a coach that performs well in big spots, has an extended amount of time to prepare for their opponent. An example of this is when Alabama and head coach Nick Saban have had the summer to prep for a specific matchup. This is evident when Alabama plays a ranked team the first week of the season (see Florida State this year, USC in 2016, Wisconsin in 2015, Virginia Tech in 2013, and Michigan in 2012). The Crimson Tide was favored in each one of those games and didn't bat an eyelash as they won/covered all of them. Some coaches take full advantage of having time off, and we like to bet those situations heavy. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
JASON SHARPE - When it comes to a best bet in college football, I usually focus my attention where most others don't: on the bottom three FBS football conferences of the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the Mid-American. My past records show I've had amazing success in games played in these leagues, and the biggest reason for this has to do with placing much more of my attention where the rest of the football bettors aren't looking closely at. The key to finding a top play in these leagues centers around final scores by a team in their past few games and what that actual final score should have been when you factor in for stuff like fumbles, injuries during the game, garbage time points/yards, bad luck, etc. I will go back over every CFB game from the following week and will 're-score' the game by trying to smooth out all the unusual things that can happen. When I'm done, I will post in my notes what I think the actual final score should be. Most folks only look at who beat who and what the final score and stats say and then adjust their power ratings based on that information. When I re-score a game throughout the season, I will start to get an idea which team's final scores are 'off' compared to what I think the game should have been. I keep a list of what I call 'underrated and overrated' teams from this information, and when these two opposite teams meet up against each other, that will usually constitute a big bet for me in college football. For example, two years ago on Oct. 1 I had a 7-Unit winner on Old Dominion (-8.5) over Charlotte in a game that ODU coasted to a dominating 52-17 win. Going into that game, I had noticed that despite having lost their past two games, ODU had played both contests much closer than the actual final score and they did so having gone up against two above average opponents. They were clearly better than what the final scores said in those two games. The exact opposite was true with Charlotte, who has accumulated a ton of garbage yards in their last game, a blowout loss to Temple, making their overall team stats like a lot better than they actually were. Both teams were being looked at incorrectly going into this game, with ODU underrated and Charlotte overrated from looking just at their final scores and the computer power ratings on the Internet. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use for the NFL applies to college football also. I start by creating a spread based on three power ratings. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, I break down the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play and specifically, I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top is looking at line movement. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up and the situation is nicely favorable on a college football conflict that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a Best Bet!
ALAN HARRIS - Look for let-down and look-ahead spots: We're sure you've heard all the theories when it comes to betting college football; play against a team going from west to east, always bet an unranked team giving points, and take the points at home – all are systems that many have played throughout the years. One that we like to look at is finding teams that have a letdown spot in the current week or ones that are looking ahead to a big game in a future week. Let's face it: these are 18-21-year-old kids, and although we hear the coaches say "one week at a time", the kids are sometimes in one ear and out the other. If there is a big rival on deck, there is almost no way a squad of more than 80 kids is going to be up for playing Directional State University that week. The same can be said for the reverse in this situation. If a school is coming off a big win, it may be tough to come with that same intensity the next week against a school that probably isn't as good as the one they just beat. We used this situation to our advantage in our Bowl Game of the Year in 2017, albeit in a strange spot. Ohio State came into the College Football Playoff as a three-point favorite, and there were many people that were already talking about them playing Alabama in the Championship Game. They were also coming into the game off a huge OT win over their rival, Michigan, in their last game of the regular season. Now, a team should never have a letdown spot in the playoff, but the Buckeyes did just that. Clemson jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead and never looked back, winning the game by a final score of 31-0.
VERNON CROY - - A top play for me in college football is when I see value with a powerhouse team that might be flying under the radar. My college football top play has to be on a team where I have them covering the spread by more than 10 points. I also look at smaller conferences to find mistakes in the lines as they are not normally as tight as the big conference games. Injury reports play a big role as well with all sports, and generally I want a healthy team. I study situational data, stats, trends and use my proven analytics to see if a play fits the bill as a top play. Generally, I can always find a top play every week in college football because there are so many games to handicap to exploit errors in the lines. I combine all of my methods used for the past 19 years to give myself the best chance at winning my college football top plays.
TONY GEORGE - Home/road dichotomy is a huge factor in games in terms of bumping up units for best bets in college football. There are just teams out there almost every year that cannot get it done on the road. When you have a team like that on the road and you have a home team with a zero or one-loss home record and they lay less than a TD, I will turn that game upside down and take a deep look at it from various perspectives. And if all signs point the right way, I make a big move on it. Two years ago, Ohio State played a bad road team in Nebraska and won 62-3 laying 17.5 points, and I nailed it huge. Another angle I use is the 200/200 rule. If a team is averaging 200 yards through the air and 200 yards on the ground on offense, they have been about a 60 percent win rate in the past three seasons against the spread. When teams like that play a team with a bad defense, then I can assure you a double-digit win is coming. And if the number is manageable, I will in fact raise the units on the wager and make it a top college football bet. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here

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Best Bets College Football Against Spread

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