Best Bets Against The Spread Week 6
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Best Bets Against The Spread Week 6
NFL Week 6 Picks against the Spread
The Colts and Browns meet in the Game of the Week. Picks for every game, with Steelers, Seahawks, & Rams best bets…
If only we knew in August what we know now about Russell Wilson, the Rams offense, and the terrible NFC East…
Last week : 6–7 Season total: 42–32–2 Best bets: 8–7 2019 total : 140–111–2
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T HE 2020 NFL SEASON KEEPS TRUCKING FORWARD , even if it feels like the season could be derailed at any moment as positive COVID tests continue sweep through the league and wreak havoc on the schedule. We had Tuesday night football for the second time in half a century, which turned this week’s Thursday game into another Monday doubleheader, while the Week 5 Patriots-Broncos game will be played in Week 6, unless more Coronavirus tests mean it doesn’t. Got it?
It’s just as confusing on the field lately. The Chiefs destroyed the Ravens to assure their place at the top of the standings but then got blown up by the Raiders. The Seahawks were thoroughly dominated by the nearly winless Vikings. The Dolphins embarrassed the 49ers. The Browns are good now. Just about the only thing we know for sure is that the NFC East stinks. Oh, and the Jets. So at least there’s one bit of normalcy in 2020.
And still, the football goes on, and who knows how many more football Sundays we’ll get this fall, so we best appreciate them while we can. Let’s run through the Week 6 Power Rankings and make some picks…
32. New York Jets 0–5 (Previous rank: 32) 31. Washington Football Team 1–4 (29) 30. New York Giants 0–5 (31)
It was genuinely awesome to see Alex Smith on a football field again, and maybe slightly terrifying. If you missed the ESPN special , Smith injured his leg so badly 23 months ago against the Texans that his life was at stake . No one thought he’d ever play football again. It’s crazy that he did.
Unfortunately, he was terrible. Smith couldn’t move in pocket and went 9-for-17 for 37 yards. He got sacked six times. His QBR was 3.2, and that’s a scale of 0 to 100. Washington had 108 total yards and 10 first downs, three from penalties. This team needs more than inspiration.
29. Denver Broncos 1–3 (30) 28. Cincinnati Bengals 1–3–1 (27) 27. Jacksonville Jaguars 1–4 (28) 26. Atlanta Falcons 0–5 (25) 25. Detroit Lions 1–3 (24)
How many teams in this tier have their quarterback of the future? The Bengals certainly do with Joe Burrow, and the Lions aren’t cutting ties with Matt Stafford. Atlanta is stuck with Matt Ryan for another $117 million, like it or not. Denver has no answer yet.
What about the Jags? Gardner Minshew increasingly looks like the real deal, especially with D.J. Chark healthy. Minshew’s numbers are more fine than good, but they’re not bad either, and he certainly has that “it” factor. Minshew is on pace for 32 TDs and doesn’t make many mistakes. Maybe there’s something more behind that mustache after all.
24. Miami Dolphins 2–3 (26) 23. Philadelphia Eagles 1–3–1 (19) 22. Houston Texans 1–4 (23) 21. Dallas Cowboys 2–3 (14)
RIP to my NFC Super Bowl pick . The Cowboys can still win the division with Andy Dalton and the decrepit NFC East, but any hopes of a serious run are out the window without Dak Prescott. Poor Dak.
Dalton is the best backup in the league but he’s no Dak, and he’s playing behind a banged-up O-line and without a defense. Dallas still looks like the best team in the division, slightly, and the schedule is winnable. Maybe they get to 8–8 still. But any hopes of a real splash this season are dead and gone.
20. Los Angeles Chargers 1–4 (20) 19. San Francisco 49ers 2–3 (15) 18. Carolina Panthers 3–2 (22) 17. Minnesota Vikings 1–4 (18)
It’s actually hard to dominate a game the way the Vikings did on Sunday night and still lose. Minnesota ran 83 plays to just 52 for Seattle. They had 449 yards and allowed only 314. The Vikings had 31 first downs to just 18 for Seattle, and the Seahawks were 0-for-7 on third down. Zero third-down conversions!! Minnesota ran for over 200 yards and had the ball almost two-thirds of the time. The Vikings are genuinely good, and apparently they’re one of the best 1–4 teams ever . Just another season for us Vikings fans.
16. Arizona Cardinals 3–2 (17) 15. Chicago Bears 4–1 (16) 14. Las Vegas Raiders 3–2 (21)
The Bears, on the other hand, are one of the worst 4–1 teams of all time . Life ain’t fair. Chicago is an underdog yet again this week but keeps finding ways to win. Against the Bucs it was 109 penalty yards and some more than questionable calls that threw the game Chicago’s way. It’s always something with the Bears. Chicago is good at rushing the passer and defending the pass, but that’s about the end of the compliments with this team. Nick Foles has been fine, and fine is far above the Trubisky line. Bears gonna Bear.
13. New Orleans Saints 3–2 (12) 12. Buffalo Bills 4–1 (6) 11. Indianapolis Colts 3–2 (7) 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3–2 (8)
The Colts continue to feel underrated. They played a good Browns team straight up, but couldn’t get off the field. Cleveland went 10-for-17 on third down and ran 20 more plays than Indy, and that’s that. But the 17 is as impressive for the Colts as the 10 is for Cleveland. Forcing a team to third down is a repeatable feat. Converting them tends to be luck more than anything. The Colts still have the #1 DVOA defense . If they can ever get Philip Rivers on the right page, they can still be a Super Bowl contender.
9. New England Patriots 2–2 (10) 8. Cleveland Browns 4–1 (13) 7. Los Angeles Rams 4–1 (9) 6. Tennessee Titans 4–0 (11)
The Titans certainly got my attention Tuesday night. That looked like the Titans we last saw on national TV — when they were doing it to upset the Patriots and Ravens in last year’s playoffs. Tennessee knows exactly what they are. The Titans are going to punch you in the face 25 times with Derrick Henry, then dial up the deep play-action just when you start to tiptoe toward the line. It looks like that Ryan Tannehill leap last year was real, and it’s starting to look like these Titans are, too.
5. Baltimore Ravens 4–1 (2) 4. Pittsburgh Steelers 4–0 (5) 3. Green Bay Packers 4–0 (4) 2. Seattle Seahawks 5–0 (3) 1. Kansas City Chiefs 4–1 (1)
I’m starting to get worried, just a little, about Lamar Jackson. He’s been incredibly pedestrian as a passer, with just 674 yards across his last four games, an ugly 6.1 yards per attempt. Jackson didn’t run last week either — just two carries for three yards — but that was probably by design, protecting Lamar from further injury in a game against an outmatched opponent.
Just how hurt is Jackson? Will the Ravens ever find that passing attack, one that can respond when the game script doesn’t go their way? I thought this was the clear best team in football heading into the season. I’m starting to have some serious doubts.
Washington’s offense can’t get any worse, and they actually have a top-five defense right now. That’s bad news for a Giants offense that can’t do anything. Don’t expect much scoring or action in this one. Take the under.
It seems absolutely impossible that this Dolphins team is an eight-point favorite against anyone, but here we are. The Jets can’t defend the pass and that’s what Miami does well. This line is just begging us to take New York to cover, and I still can’t do it.
It feels like this should be more like Titans -8, but Tennessee is playing on an almost unprecedented short week after a Tuesday night game. I like the Titans anyway. They should run all over Houston unless this short week thing is real.
Will the Falcons get the fired-coach bump? I’m not so sure. It’s hard enough to adjust to a new coach without a COVID scare in the same week. Atlanta has no defense, and the Vikings should be able to slow Matt Ryan and co.
I’m out on Dallas as a Super Bowl contender, but this feels like a spot where everyone overreacts a bit to Dak Prescott being out. Andy Dalton is still a perfectly fine QB and Arizona’s pass defense will make him look even better. Arizona is 2–14 in Dallas since 1990. Buuut we get Kyler Murray on a Monday night in a stadium where he made magic many times in college.
It looks like both quarterbacks should return, and that should be advantage Cam Newton vs. Drew Lock. Will this game even happen? New England keeps leaking positive tests. On the field, Denver has a good run defense and a nice history against Cam. Feels like an ugly, low scoring affair.
I want to talk myself into Philly and don’t totally believe in the Ravens right now, but Baltimore’s four wins this season are by 32, 17, 14, and 24. I’m not sure about the Ravens offense, but their defense should handle Philly just fine.
This game feels a lot like the Baltimore one. I don’t trust the Colts offense but DeForest Buckner and the Indy D-line should dominate an outmatched Cincinnati line. I’m just not sure the Bengals or Eagles can score enough to make either of these off-kilter offenses pay.
I initially had this under the stay aways, but these teams are 7–3 somehow and this has playoff implications, so, sure. Teddy Bridgewater remains nearly invincible against the spread, so maybe that will offset Chicago’s voodoo magic. The Panthers offense has been modern and fun and should make a fun matchup against a good Bears D.
The Browns are 4–1 and the Steelers are a bit overrated, but this is not the spot. Pittsburgh has the league’s #1 run defense and I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to do enough on his own. Cleveland has lost 16 straight games in Pittsburgh. They’re 4–27–1 against the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted and have won exactly six of their last 49 games against Pittsburgh.
This reminds me of an old NFC Central divisional battle featuring Brett Favre and orange creamsicle jerseys, only these Bucs are good. Tampa’s defense in particular looks elite and should be a great match for Aaron and Aaron, who haven’t been stopped yet. The difference here is the one weak unit — Green Bay’s defense — and I like Tom to outduel Mr. Discount Double Check.
I don’t feel great about any of these three best bets, but this is my upset special. The 49ers were terrible last week but match up well, with a rushing attack to punish a weak Rams run defense and a run D that can slow Sean McVay’s attack. LA may be 4–1, but those four wins are against the NFC East.
Buffalo looks like Vegas, who just beat the Chiefs with an aggressive downfield passing attack. But I loved Kansas City last week because they have a great passing defense and because neither the Raiders nor the Bills have any D to speak of right now. Back to the well for our third Patrick Mahomes Monday night game in three weeks. Guess 2020 isn’t all bad.
Doesn’t this line feel backwards? These are two of the three worst DVOA defenses in the league, but the Jaguars have a top 10 offense and I trust Gardner Minshew more than Matt Stafford right now. This feels like a shootout, so take the over and bet against Matt Patricia’s defense. ■
Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here .
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NFL week six picks against the spread and straight up for every game this week. Get our free NFL week six expert picks below. Get free NFL picks every week of the season.
Looking for NFL Picks on the big game? Check out our best Super Bowl Predictions ahead of Super Bowl 55.
The home of our free NFL Picks and Predictions for week 6 of the 2020-21 NFL season.
Our expert NFL handicappers, research the entire NFL Week 6 schedule to bring you the best week 6 NFL picks, predictions, and best bets.
We take a look through all of the week 6 NFL games, with the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks on their Bye Week, we are left with a 14 game slate to decipher. Here you will find all things week 6, including the NFL week 6 spreads, betting lines, Moneyline favorites along with our week 6 NFL picks and predictions.
Our NFL handicappers research, analyze, and preview every game to provide the best free picks and NFL betting lines for week 6.
1 p.m. ET – Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
1 p.m. ET – Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
1 p.m. ET – Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
1 p.m. ET – Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
1 p.m. ET – Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
1 p.m. ET – The Washington Football Team at New York Giants
1 p.m. ET – Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
1 p.m. ET – Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
1 p.m. ET – Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
4:05 p.m. ET – New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
4:25 p.m. ET – Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8:20 p.m. ET – Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
5:00 p.m. ET – Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
8.15 p.m. ET – Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys ( Monday Night Football )
The week 6 NFL odds will be posted here once released.
NFL Week 6 favorites, Spreads, and Moneyline odds
The week 6 favorites, spreads and moneyline odds will appear here once released.
The week 6 over-under betting lines will appear here once released.
Key Week 6 NFL Matchups to watch will be posted here ahead of NFL week 6.
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