Best Bets Against The Spread Week 11
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A rip-roaring Week 10 of NFL betting , chock full of upsets and complete and utter stunners that sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets is in the books, from Titans upsetting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to Matt Ryan showing up Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome. Oh, and the Dolphins knocking off the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium was something else.
All in all, it was an unforgettable week for many NFL betting fans particularly those that banked on the upsets. Importantly, it proves there are no easy picks in the NFL.
So, with another week of NFL betting looming on the horizon, we look ahead to the current slate on offer in the market and serve up choice bets against the spread for some of the standout games that will feature. Let’s get cracking with our NFL picks for Week 11.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye week, which will give them the added advantage of rest and preparation for what is sure to be a tough road assignment for backup Brandon Allen.
The rookie starter won his first-ever NFL start in week 9 when he led the Broncos to a win over the Browns at Mile High. Expecting him to back it up against a Minnesota Vikings side that is largely dominant at home might be expecting a lot.
As such, it’s no surprise the Vikings are giving a truckload of points to the Broncos on the NFL odds board. The Vikings are laying anywhere from -10.5 to (in some cases) as high as -11.5. That’s a whole lot of points in favor of the Vikings that could be exploitable.
Unfortunately, one win over an underwhelming Browns team is a small sample size for NFL bettors to hang their hats on. The Vikings are 6-4 ATS with an 8-point winning margin on average and a +4-point differential versus the spread on average. At home, those numbers double with the Vikings sporting a 3-1 ATS mark that includes a 16-point winning margin on average and a +8-point differential against the spread on average.
The clash between young guns Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson should be the game of the week and a right cracker to spot on week 11 NFL picks . It’s quite likely the hottest young quarterbacks will showcase their combined talent in a game that could technically go either way.
The Ravens have home advantage and after what they’ve done in the last few weeks it’s no surprise they’re laying a handful of points on the NFL odds board. Beating the Patriots is nothing to scoff at, nor is backing up that win with a ruthless beatdown over the Bengals. It just adds to their clout.
The Texans are no slouches though and Deshaun Watson has had his fair share of plays make the highlight reel this season. If there’s one advantage Watson and the Texans might capitalise on, it’s being the fresher team coming off a bye week. It’s not much but it’s something that could prove the edge in what is expected to be a close and hard fought battle between two AFC playoff hopefuls.
The Niners suffered their first loss of the season and it was a doozie to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime. Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners had their chances to clinch a ninth-straight “W” but opportunities came and went, including a botched field goal that summed up their rather unfortunate night where nothing seemed to go their way after Emmanuel Sanders left the game with a rib injury.
It’s a short week but the Niners have a winnable game ahead and a chance to sweep a divisional foe for the first time in years. The Niners beat the Cardinals 28-25 on Halloween night a few weeks back. It was a closer affair and Kyler Murray and the Cardinals did give the Niners a run for their money, more so than the NFL markets tipped at the time.
Having seen first hand what Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals bring to the table should make the Niners better prepared for this divisional rematch at Levi’s Stadium. Plus, being a bit ornery after a frustrating loss to another divisional foe should give the Niners that extra umph to come through for their backers.
Whether the Niners can cover the massive spread on offer is another matter entirely however. It’s a lot of points by any standard and more so given Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle along with a few other offensive weapons are questionable to start on Sunday.
Ryan Finley may have his first start in the NFL out of his way but it was an unforgettable beatdown that could stay with him for a while. It remains to be seen how the young hopeful bounces back but it’s hard to hold out much hope for his chances when the Bengals as a whole are just terrible. Not to mention, a date with the soaring Oakland Raiders on the road is a tall order.
The Raiders are in the thick of the AFC playoff race, which puts a premium on the win in week 11. On paper, this is a mismatch that should serve Jon Gruden’s side perfectly as they look to close the gap in the AFC West on the suddenly wavering Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Jacobs is a real find for the Raiders and he’s enthralling the Oakland faithful no end. Gruden is only too happy to lap it all up and Derek Carr is reaping the rewards on the field with one of his best seasons in a long time. This should be a straightforward victory for the Raiders against a team that’s done and done for 2019.
The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles are set to reprise hostilities for the first time since the Eagles stunned the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. Of course, with several notable absences – namely Saint Nick, who was shipped off to Jacksonville earlier this season.
One has to think that 41-33 loss to the Eagles still irks Bill Belichick and a chance for redemption against his counterpart Doug Pederson is right up his street. He won’t mind the absence of Nick Foles; in fact he might prefer it given how Carson Wentz has been up and down this season.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, so the playing field is level as far as the advantage of rest goes. The Patriots are coming off a loss in week 9 to the Ravens but they’re a healthy 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on the season, which includes a 19.1 winning margin on average and a +7.4 differential versus the spread on average.
The Eagles won back-to-back games over the Bills and Bears to improve to 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS, underscored by a 1.2 winning margin on average and a -1.4 differential versus the spread on average.
By all accounts, the Patriots enter week 11 as the road faves but they’re only laying a field goal or thereabouts on the NFL odds board. Patriots at -3.5 (available with most sportsbooks) is the lowest point spread this season Tom Brady and Co. have faced. Not sure why they’re such notional road faves when the Eagles haven’t been consistent at all. This must be the bargain NFL pick of the week.
The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams are two of the most frustrating teams of the 2019 season, two sides that entered with boatloads of expectations that have gone to the wayside, leaving them bobbing along aimlessly in a sea of NFC competitors.
The Bears did finally snap the negative trend with a win over the Lions but with Matthew Stafford on the side lines (back injury). The Rams, meanwhile, had their butts whooped by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers at Heinz Field. If there’s one thing both teams have in common, it’s questionable play from their starting quarterbacks. Another is the lack of trust each coach has in his starter – McVay more so than Nagy, surprisingly.
Pulling Goff out to field Bortles ever so briefly and then electing to go with a special team play instead of Goff only for it to go spectacularly awry is very worrying and not a good look for the McVay-Goff relationship.
All in all, Trubisky and Goff have regressed in 2019, a fact that makes it hard to feel confident about either side’s chances when this pair collides in primetime Sunday Night Football. How the Rams are favored by almost a touchdown is incomprehensible.
The Rams are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS overall, but just 1-2 SU and ATS as home favorites this season, the latter of which includes a -3.3 losing margin on average. Chicago is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road with a 3.3 winning margin on average.
In short, this is a tossup for week 11 NFL picks. As such, hedging bets by taking the points with the Bears is probably the most viable option.
Ryan Tannehill rained down on Patrick Mahomes’ return to the line-up last week by serving up the upset over Kansas City. It was a worrying result that has carried over into the NFL betting market for week 11 and the showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers in Mexico.
Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the nominal -4 favorites in spread betting, their lowest point spread with Mahomes in the line up since week 1 when the Chiefs closed as the -3.5 road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Of course, recent form has a lot to do with this watered down market. The Chiefs have lost three of their last six games and slip to a 6-4 SU mark. The lowly number also falls into their current wheelhouse as the Chiefs are 5-5 ATS with a 4.5 winning margin on average and a +1.1 differential versus the spread.
The Chargers, however, strike a less than inspiring pose in 2019 behind a 4-6 SU and 3-5-2 ATS mark that includes a 1.3 winning margin on average and a -1.2 differential versus the spread on average. In their last six games, the Chargers are 2-4 SU and ATS. The most concerning part for the Chargers is the fact that Philip Rivers has yet to show up in 2019, he’s a far cry from his lofty standards.
While both teams have endured their fair share of struggles this season, the balance tips in favor of the Chiefs. So much so that this game may not even be as close as the NFL odds would have it.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) warms up before an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Chicago Bears in New Orleans, Sunday, Jan. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
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by Chris Amberley
in
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After sweeping our Sunday best bets in Week 10, we were on the wrong side of an atrocious Monday Night Football game to finish the week at 2-1. A winning week squares our overall record at 15-15, but we’re still down 1.39 units on the season.
Week 11 is shaping up as a good week to target underdogs, starting with the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons visiting the 7-2 New Orleans Saints. With Drew Brees sidelined, Taysom Hill will make his first career start, while former number one overall pick Jameis Winston will reportedly not be apart of any offensive packages.
Odds taken Nov. 19th at FanDuel. See bottom for rest of Week 11 Picks.
New Orleans is currently a 5-point favorite over Atlanta in one of the highest total games on the slate. Most people assumed Winston would draw the start, but the Saints surprised everyone on Friday announcing Hill as their guy.
Taysom Hill will start Sunday for the Saints at QB, per @AdamSchefter. pic..com/AJXxOivO9M
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 20, 2020
The 30-year-old has thrown just 18 career passes in four seasons in New Orleans, and wasn’t exactly a star QB prospect coming out of Brigham Young. He completed just 58.2% of his throws at BYU, compiling a 43-31 TD-to-INT rate.
Taysom Hill has 83 snaps at QB over the last two seasons. He's attempted just 11 passes during that span.
Obviously will throw at higher rate Sunday, but this feels like Tebow szn. https://t.co/fP7qd8CqJR
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 20, 2020
He’s much more likely to run the ball, which is a huge downgrade to the Saints skill position stars. Hill has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over 98 career rushes, and the New Orleans offense is now likely to resemble something that Tim Tebow used to quarterback nearly a decade ago.
The Falcons meanwhile, have made great strides since Dan Quinn’s firing, winning three of five games. Atlanta has allowed only 22.6 points per outing during that stretch, which is an 11.9 point improvement from its first four contests of 2020.
Most 15+ yard receptions: 1. Calvin Ridley – 21 2. Allen Robinson II – 20 3. Travis Kelce – 19 pic..com/o37jz25BvX
After missing the Falcons last game, Calvin Ridley appears set to return to bolster the Atlanta passing game, which is in a spot. New Orleans boasts the league’s 21st ranked coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus, and have been torched by the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert and Teddy Bridgewater this season.
The Falcons may be 3-6, but it’s important to remember that they had a win probability north of 90% in the 4th quarter of three of their losses. I like them to cover here and maybe even win outright.
Our underdog theme continues with our second pick, as we’ll target the Philadelphia Eagles catching 3-points in Cleveland .
Philly has been a disappointment so far at 3-5-1, but despite having three fewer wins than the 6-3 Browns, the two teams have virtually the same point differential (-29 vs -28). The Eagles offense has been a hot mess in 2020, averaging just 22.6 points per outing, but the defense has kept them in most games.
Our defense collapses on Jones!#PHIvsNYG | #FlyEaglesFly pic..com/Qq081LlPng
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 15, 2020
Philadelphia is generating pressure at the NFL’s sixth highest rate, and have held enemy running backs to 3.37 yards per carry. That spells trouble for the Browns, who want nothing more than to run the ball. Cleveland is running at the league’s third highest rate, and if the Eagles can neutralize Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, they could have a field day against Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield so far today vs. Steelers: 4-10 Passing, 43 Pass Yards, 2 Interceptions, 1 Pick 6 pic..com/BCuRIcFVr8
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 18, 2020
Mayfield is one of the most pressure sensitive QB’s in football, ranking 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating under pressure. He’s been sacked on 16% of his drop backs under duress in 2020, has a 1-4 TD-to-INT rate, and a measly 40% completion rate.
The Browns defense meanwhile, isn’t nearly as strong as the past two weeks might suggest. Both their Week 9 and Week 10 games were played in severe wind storms, which caused the total in both contests to plummet. Prior to those outings, they were surrendering 31.6 points per game and are not a unit to be feared.
Our final underdog of the week is the Green Bay Packers, who are currently 2-point ‘dogs to the Indianapolis Colts . This is simply a case of taking the better team, with the better quarterback.
🥇 Aaron Rodgers 🥈 Tom Brady 🥉 Russell Wilson
PFF's highest-graded QBs of 2020 🏆 pic..com/LLg7YiT3aA
Indy will be a trendy pick after blowing out Tennessee in Week 10, while Green Bay struggled with 1-win Jacksonville.
The Packers currently own the NFC’s number one seed, are PFF’s second highest graded offense, and rank 3rd in points per game.
Aaron Rodgers with the 78-yard DIME for the TD 😯
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 15, 2020
The Colts on the other hand, may be 6-3, but have just one quality win. They fell flat against Baltimore two weeks ago, and Phillip Rivers is still incredibly turnover prone. Rivers has thrown five of his seven interceptions in games Indy has lost, and the Packers will be getting back their top two cornerbacks (Jaire Alexander and Kevin King) for this game.
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.
© 2021 Donnakabanero. All rights reserved
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
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