Best Bet Against Spread Ncaa

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The NCAA tournament is one of the most exciting events in all sports, as the one-game elimination setup makes it likelier to see upsets compared to a best-of-seven format. This year’s tournament had the most upsets of all-time (14), and subsequently the highest seed average entering the Sweet 16. However, the best two college basketball teams all year long have been the Baylor Bears and Gonzaga Bulldogs, and each of them steamrolled (and survived) their way to a collision course in the national championship.
This is the first national championship meeting of the preseason top-two teams in the AP Poll. It is also the ninth national championship featuring the tournament’s top two overall seeds. The previous eight-such matchups were all decided by double digits, so history says we should be in for another classic.
If Baylor wins, it would be the first national championship in school history and validate head coach Scott Drew’s resurrection of a program considered the conference doormat for decades. If Gonzaga wins, they put themselves in the history books as one of the most dominant teams of all time and just the fifth school ever (and eighth team ever) to end the season as undefeated national champions.
Get your popcorn ready.
Here are our best bets for the point spread, over/under, and our favorite prop for Monday’s national championship.
The 2 combined losses by @ZagMBB and @BaylorMBB will tie the fewest ever by the two teams entering the title game of the NCAA Tournament.
The others with 2 came in 1957 (North Carolina-Kansas) and 1966 (Texas Western-Kentucky).
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) April 4, 2021
From a betting perspective entering Monday night, the dilemma is how much should we get caught up from Saturday’s results? Gonzaga nearly got picked off but covered four straight tournament games and set an NCAA record with 27 consecutive wins by double digits. Baylor dominated Houston from the onset, but bettors may be skeptical that the Cougars had not played a KenPom top-30 team the entire season. Houston also reached the Final Four after becoming the first NCAA team in tournament history to face four double-digit seeds in a single tournament.
While the biggest narrative surrounding Monday’s matchup is Gonzaga’s pursuit of perfection, their zero in the loss column is likely the most significant factor making them favorites in this game. We are quick to forget that Baylor started the season 17-0 and won those games by an average of 23.6 PPG. In that time, they beat six NCAA tournament teams, including a No. 1 seed (Illinois) and two No. 3 seeds (Texas and Kansas) by an average of 11.7 PPG. Their struggles following a three-week COVID-19 pause were well-documented and caused many to forget what this team’s true ceiling is. Their performance on Monday night and throughout the entire tournament has reminded us of what their ceiling is.
The most concerning statistic if you are a Baylor backer is Gonzaga’s ability to get to the paint and score from close range. The Bulldogs’ 63.9% shooting percentage is the best in the country, while Baylor’s 48.3% two-point percentage ranks 120th. The Bears have to pressure the ball on the perimeter and not allow Gonzaga’s guards to feed Drew Timme in the post repeatedly, or he will easily exceed the 25.0 PPG he has averaged over the last four games.
Baylor made history in their Final Four performance against Houston on both the offensive and defensive end. They held the Cougars to 20 first-half points, which is the fewest amount of points a team ever scored in the first half of a national semifinal. On offense, their 23 assists were the most in a Final Four game since 1990.
Baylor has the defensive personnel to frustrate a Gonzaga offense that has steamrolled their competition this year. Davion Mitchell earned the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award, and his ability to guard either Jalen Suggs or Corey Kispert will thwart one of Gonzaga’s vital offensive pieces.
Baylor's ball-screen defense has rendered DeJon Jarreau completely ineffective offensively, and the Cougars are having a nightmare of a time creating good looks on their first shot.
— Rob Dauster (@RobDauster) April 3, 2021
The over will be a popular play given how effective Baylor has been on offense all tournament-long and the level that Gonzaga has played at all season long. However, the nerves on the biggest stage and the pressure of culminating the season with a championship will weigh heavily on both teams, causing a lower-scoring game than most predict. In addition, Stats by Stats pointed out on Twitter that Baylor has been on a historic pace from a turnover margin perspective.
After today's win, @BaylorMBB now has a +40 turnover margin in the NCAA Tournament this year.
That's the best turnover margin by any team over its first 4 NCAA Tournament games since Kentucky was +42 in 1996 on its way to the title.
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) March 30, 2021
Three of the top four players on the Most Outstanding Player odds list are Bulldogs, highlighting Gonzaga’s chances to win the game. If Gonzaga wins, the biggest reason will be because of Drew Timme, and his +100 odds are too good to pass up. Making this bet also serves as somewhat of a hedge considering we like Baylor’s chances to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Baylor does not have anyone down low that can shut down Timme. He is too agile with his tremendous footwork for a defender like Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and is too big and physical for an under-sized defender like Mark Vital. Entering the Final Four, Timme’s 85 points, 30 rebounds, and 17 assists made him the first player to total 85/30/15 over the first four NCAA tournament games since Mitch Richmond in 1988. Timme followed that up with 25 points, four rebounds, and two assists against UCLA. Though Jalen Suggs’ sequence of a massive block and needle-threading bounce pass to Timme for a dunk was game-changing, Timme’s first six points in the overtime session against UCLA calmed Gonzaga’s nerves and paced them enough to keep their undefeated season intact.
When the going gets tough against Baylor, Mark Few is going to look Timme’s way often. Plus, his trademark “stache” will be printed on T-shirts if the Bulldogs go on to win the championship. Even though Jalen Suggs will have a more lucrative and successful NBA career, Timme will get the sentimental vote for MOP.
Pick: Drew Timme (+100, odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
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Here you will find a list of our best College Football bets of the day. This page will be updated several times over the weekend.  All Best bets are Against the Spread or Totals Plays.
This page is divided into 3 simple sections.  
Here you will find a list of our best College Football bets of the day for College Football Picks. This page will be updated several times over the weekend. All Best bets are Against the Spread or Totals Plays.
The second section lists two of our complimentary college football best bets matchup reports. We write these daily for most NCAA football games. These articles are more for the do-it-yourself types that want to really dig in and also have the time do the extensive research required each day.
The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in college football.
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The VMI Keydets are on the docket to meet the James Madison Dukes at Bridgeforth Stadium on Saturday, April 24, 2021. James Madison opens this matchup as 17.5-point favorites. The O/U opens at 49.5. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game. Read More >>
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Doc's Sports Service is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States. Below you will find a list of 10 tips for finding a college football best bet from 10 of the top college football handicapping experts in the country. Our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. With nearly 50 years of experience, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports information industry.
A lot of other people in this industry focus their attention on high-pressure sales tactics and irresponsible betting practices. But at Doc's Sports we believe that there is a lot of money to be made in the sports investing market. Therefore, our college football handicappers keep their focus on results and showing their clients a profit. It's a win-win situation and the foundation of our success: keep it simple.
We offer our clients top college football predictions at one fair price. Our college football handicappers release a full slate of college football picks at 6 p.m. EST each Thursday throughout the season. Every one of our college football handicappers has a different style, but all have enjoyed vast success. And that includes success with their weekly college football top games and best bets, which are available for just $30 apiece.
All of our college football handicapping picks come with a rotation number, unit rating (Click Here to read more about our Unit System for the best money management), time and date of the game and a detailed analysis.
Bet against the triple option attack…
Keep an eye on early season totals…
Here are 10 tips for finding college football best bets from our team:
DOC'S SPORTS – If you want a good system for a college football best bet, then wager against a triple-option team where the opponent is coming off a long layoff. This is especially true for bowl games. Triple-option teams work best when teams do not have much time to prepare for them. Giving a team two weeks or a month to stop it usually spells trouble for the option offense. Teams must have a winning record to make a bowl game, and thus the triple option offenses are not facing a weak defense that they can just overpower. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
ROBERT FERRINGO - I can honestly say that every year, two or three of my biggest bets in college football are games that I decide on before the season even starts. And most of those games involve one of two situations. The first is a revenge motivation from the previous year. Revenge is a huge motivator in college football, a sport that is practically fueled by emotion because of the youth of the players. The second thing that I look for is the intersection of teams that I feel are overrated coming into the year against ones that are underrated. A perfect example is in 2016 when I hit one of my Game of the Year plays with Army (+6) over Navy. I actually predicted in JULY that this would be the year that Army would finally snap its 14-year losing streak by winning outright. Taking the points in that game was just a bonus, and the Black Knights won 21-17 in a game that was never really in doubt. Do your homework. Comb through the schedules before the season, and you will see some spots that will be begging for best bet action down the road.
ALLEN EASTMAN - College football seems like it is very unpredictable. It is not to me. When I am looking for a big play or a college football best bet, I like to look at long-term trends. I think that a lot of college football programs are fairly predictable over the long term. Some schools always play other schools tough. Some teams always struggle when playing on certain fields or in certain situations. And by following the trends, you can get a good idea about where to find value. Take my 8-Unit College Football Game of the Year in 2016, for example. I had Air Force (+8.5) over Boise State. Boise had gone just 7-15 ATS in November games the past few years and was just 1-6 ATS against teams that were over .500. That told me that they struggled late in the season against other good teams and the oddsmakers had them overvalued. Air Force, on the other hand, had gone 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with a winning record, so they were playing their best against the best competition. Air Force won the game outright, 27-20! There are top games and best bets each week that feature similar trends that are always pointing toward the right side. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
RAPHAEL ESPARZA - Betting totals in nonconference games at the start of the college football season is always a great spot to look for best bets each week. In September of 2016, Central Michigan hosted the UNLV and that total was a soft 55. That flew over the total as Central Michigan won 44-21. You can always find great value on totals with Big Ten schools playing smaller conference as well as SEC schools playing small conferences. The key to playing totals early in the season is playing them early – right when they get posted - or waiting to the last minute for the wise guys to move your number and then you can bet it on Friday night or Saturday morning. It depends on your side. But anticipating number movements in these early season college totals is an important part of making them pay out in top plays.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS - - Finding a best bet in college football varies from handicapper to handicapper. Many will try and find the "look-ahead" or the "let-down" spot. Others will follow a tried and true system that they have been playing for years. The conglomerate here at Strike Point Sports looks for that perfect spot when one team, led by a coach that performs well in big spots, has an extended amount of time to prepare for their opponent. An example of this is when Alabama and head coach Nick Saban have had the summer to prep for a specific matchup. This is evident when Alabama plays a ranked team the first week of the season (see Florida State this year, USC in 2016, Wisconsin in 2015, Virginia Tech in 2013, and Michigan in 2012). The Crimson Tide was favored in each one of those games and didn't bat an eyelash as they won/covered all of them. Some coaches take full advantage of having time off, and we like to bet those situations heavy. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here
JASON SHARPE - When it comes to a best bet in college football, I usually focus my attention where most others don't: on the bottom three FBS football conferences of the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the Mid-American. My past records show I've had amazing success in games played in these leagues, and the biggest reason for this has to do with placing much more of my attention where the rest of the football bettors aren't looking closely at. The key to finding a top play in these leagues centers around final scores by a team in their past few games and what that actual final score should have been when you factor in for stuff like fumbles, injuries during the game, garbage time points/yards, bad luck, etc. I will go back over every CFB game from the following week and will 're-score' the game by trying to smooth out all the unusual things that can happen. When I'm done, I will post in my notes what I think the actual final score should be. Most folks only look at who beat who and what the final score and stats say and then adjust their power ratings based on that information. When I re-score a game throughout the season, I will start to get an idea which team's final scores are 'off' compared to what I think the game should have been. I keep a list of what I call 'underrated and overrated' teams from this information, and when these two opposite teams meet up against each other, that will usually constitute a big b
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